Missouri K-12 Enrollment Declined 3 Percent this Year

Posted on by Michael McShane

New data released by the National Center for Education Statistics (ably summarized here) show a substantial decline in K-12 student enrollment during the 2020–21 school year. Missouri was not immune to this trend, seeing a just over 3 percent drop in enrollment this past year. That decline represents thousands of Missouri students who decided to opt out of the public school system for reasons that we are still trying to understand.

There is good news and bad news here.

The good news is that for the first time, many of these families decided to take their children’s education into their own hands. They recognized the limitations of the traditional school system and opted for something better. According to the Census Bureau, homeschooling is up substantially, including in populations not traditionally thought of as homeschoolers. Some recent research on families who homeschooled and who personalized their children’s learning during the pandemic showed the benefits that they saw for their children and for themselves. Insofar as the pandemic helped spur people to rethink education and usher in the year of educational choice, the long-term effects will trend positive.

The bad news is that many traditional public schools are going to struggle in the short and medium term. As children filter back into schools this fall, they will have had vastly different experiences during the past year. Some will have accelerated, with more attention from their parents and creative out-of-school learning opportunities. Some will have declined, with low-quality remote learning stunting their development and disconnecting them from learning. Some will be a mixed bag. Teachers are going to have to figure out how to teach to all these different students at the same time.

As noted, the largest declines in enrollment came in kindergarten, where parents appear to simply be holding back their students for a year until school can return to normalcy. That is going to create a bubble of students that will work its way through the education system for the next two decades. Will schools have to operate extra classes each year as these students progress from grade to grade? How about college applications, with all these students applying at once? And what happens when they all hit the workforce when they graduate? The echoes of the pandemic will reverberate for multiple school years.

Judge Strikes Down Medicaid Expansion

Posted on by Elias Tsapelas

Last week, Cole County Circuit Judge Jon Beetem struck down Medicaid expansion, ruling that the initiative approved by voters last August violated Missouri’s constitution.

Beetem’s decision was in response to a lawsuit from the initiative’s supporters, which was filed after Missouri’s legislature decided against appropriating funding for Medicaid expansion. Governor Parson then halted all state implementation efforts.

As I explained last month, Missouri’s constitution gives the state legislature the responsibility of appropriating all state spending. It also provides that amendments cannot impose new costs without providing a mechanism to pay for them. Yesterday’s ruling holds that the expansion initiative failed to include a funding mechanism, and that growing the state’s Medicaid program by an estimated 275,000 enrollees will cost the state money. (The decision mentions that expansion would cost $1.8 million per year which is almost surely a typo; it should be $1.8 billion, as projections from Missouri’s Medicaid agency show.)

Prior to last August’s election, a different lawsuit challenged the constitutionality of the expansion petition on the same legal grounds. As Beetem’s decision explains, the courts at the time decided against removing the initiative from the ballot in part because the fiscal estimates showed a wide range of potential outcomes, from enormous savings to extraordinary costs. If the amendment did end up saving the state money, it wouldn’t need a funding mechanism. As I wrote repeatedly last year, the promise of savings was always illusory Once the true cost of expansion was presented to the legislature, legislators refused to appropriate funding citing their sole constitutional authority on the issue.

The plaintiffs certainly disagree with the circuit court’s ruling and have already filed their appeal. While it may be weeks or months until this issue is ultimately resolved, Judge Beetem’s decision is an important one with implications beyond this particular fight. If a petition to amend our state’s constitution violates the constitutionally defined rules for amending the constitution, it should not stand. It’s really that simple. Time will tell if the Missouri Supreme Court agrees as well.

A Rising Tide of Mediocrity

Posted on by Susan Pendergrass

If Spanish philosopher George Santayana is correct that those who cannot remember history are doomed to repeat it, then he may be disappointed in Missouri high school students. In 2017, the latest year for which data are available, only half of Missouri students scored Proficient or higher on the state’s American history exam. That’s not great, but on top of that, the quality of the exam is questionable.

A recent analysis by the Fordham Institute of state civics and U.S. history standards granted Missouri C’s in both. Once again, Missouri holds firm to its spot in the middle of the pack. Overly broad language and incoherent organization are two of the reasons cited for our mediocrity. The recommendations for improving the standards include:

  • Reorganizing the American government course so that it is chronological rather than in “strands” or themes
  • Including specific examples, such as Supreme Court cases or acts of Congress, wherever possible
  • Providing deeper and more specific guidance for teachers

Making sure that our students leave school with a solid grasp of the history of this nation and what it means to be a citizen are two of the more important roles of our public education system. Missouri needs solid and coherent standards, along with assessments that are well aligned to those standards. We need a better framework for schools and districts to graduate students ready to join civil society as knowledgeable citizens.

Medicaid Expansion Ruling, Special Session and the Cost of Tax Subsides

Posted on by Elias Tsapelas

This week, David Stokes, Patrick Ishmael, Susan Pendergrass and Elias Tsapelas join Zach Lawhorn to discuss the recent ruling on Medicaid expansion, the kickoff of a special session with high stakes and what tax giveaways can really cost a city like St. Louis.

Listen on Apple Podcasts 

Listen on Sticher 

Listen on SoundCloud 

Overland Park Considers Adding Tolled Lanes to Expand Highway

Posted on by Jakob Puckett

Drivers on U.S. Highway 69 in Overland Park near Kansas City are about to see some market-based transportation policy in action, and Missouri policymakers should take note.

A proposal approved by the Overland Park City Council and the Kansas Department of Transportation to add two tolled lanes to U.S. Highway 69—one in each direction—will go before the Kansas Turnpike Authority for final approval. Local officials cited increased traffic from an expanding population, which is only expected to continue growing, as the need for such an expansion. Rather than paying for the project directly out of the city’s budget, officials want to use tolling to pay for the construction.

The lanes would be tolled electronically, with drivers either being billed from a K-Tag transponder or by having their license plate scanned. The prices to use these lanes will vary, with prices highest when road usage—the “demand” for roads—is highest. The original four lanes on the highway will continue to be toll-free, so drivers concerned about the cost won’t have to pay for a lane they don’t end up using.

Missouri policymakers also should consider using tolling to finance new highway lanes, particularly in areas where traffic is expected to increase beyond what the current system can handle. Congestion pricing, as this policy is also called, reduces travel times and can also help reduce local air pollution as fewer vehicles are idling on the road.

I hope the benefits of Overland Park’s tolled lanes won’t go unnoticed in Missouri. There are a lot of reasons why tolling is a policy that deserves to be explored in the Show-Me State as well.

First Results of Our Request for Critical Race Theory Curricula

Posted on by Patrick Ishmael

Earlier this week, we began a new transparency project focused on whether schools in Missouri are teaching critical race theory (CRT) concepts in the classroom. Similar to the Show-Me Checkbook and Show-Me CBA projects, the Show-Me Curricula Project seeks to find out from Missouri schools what Missouri tax dollars are buying Missouri parents.

Most schools that have replied so far have told us that they do not have documents that are responsive to our request, meaning they claim they have not incorporated CRT into their curricula and have not talked publicly about it. I trust those representations are true. Readers can follow what we’re receiving from schools and districts, as we receive them, by clicking here. We appreciate the promptness of the responses of districts that have already gotten back to us.

Notably, the Hazelwood School District sent four documents responsive to our request for CRT-related materials: three curricula and one public statement. Some of the CRT materials are incorporated by reference; there are instructions in the curricula to review and discuss content in a linked website but the content is not necessarily fully articulated in the curricula. Some examples of what I found:

Content from the New York Times’ 1619 Project dealing with early European explorers is prescribed for fourth-graders, and ninth-graders are told that the 1776 Commission, established by former President Donald Trump, was an exercise in “identity politics”—a charge it did not also level against the 1619 Project.

The curricula for fourth-graders and eighth-graders also direct teachers, by a link, to materials provided free of charge by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) and marketed variously as “Teaching Tolerance” and “Learning for Justice.” Readers will find substantial CRT content at this SPLC website.

To be sure, it is difficult to know the full extent to which CRT concepts will be taught in Hazelwood schools; curricula doesn’t always translate directly to the classroom. But it is fair to believe that these materials represent the baseline of the school’s CRT instruction.

Our Sunshine Law request also returned a Hazelwood School Board public statement. Per the statement, the district is engaged in ongoing, unspecified racist practices—a remarkable admission, given taxpayers are being forced to subsidize the district through their taxes. In a long list of action items, Hazelwood’s school board says it will:

[e]mpower the superintendent and charge her with boldly addressing and correcting institutionalized racist practices that have survived because of a “wall of silence and denial,” against our students and in our schools much like that in police departments. The Board will hold itself and all staff, accountable for the same. [Emphasis mine]

I did not know about Hazelwood’s “institutionalized racist practices,” and therefore I did not request documents relating to it. It may be the subject of a follow-up Sunshine Law request.

I encourage the public and parents especially to read for themselves the materials that are being provided, and to do their own due diligence with their own schools as classes return later this year. Transparency is a fundamental part of good governance. Likewise, transparency is the bare minimum that districts and schools should be offering taxpayers when it comes to problematic curricula.

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