Kansas City’s Questionable GO Bond Assumptions

In my recent post, The GO Bonds Will Cost You Much More Than You’re Being Told, I concluded that—contrary to claims on the city’s website—the total amount of taxes paid for the GO bond would be $2,400 over the life of the bond for someone with a $100,000 house and a $15,000 car. But this was wrong. It turns out that I underestimated the total impact of the GO bond tax. It is actually over $4,100. My initial estimate was wrong because I did not have the city’s assumptions in front of me.  Now that I do have the assumptions, they bring no comfort.

In my previous post, I relied on the information made available on the city’s website, but I could not duplicate the city’s claim that the “average annual” cost was only $8 for someone who owned a $140,000 house and a $15,000 car. I incorrectly concluded that the city must be talking about only one of the 20-year bonds. The city’s Deputy Finance Department Director pointed out my errors and provided me their assumptions in the spreadsheet attached here.

In short, the $8 shown in the “Average Annual” column is the average annual increase in city property taxes, not merely the “average annual” impact of the bonds that the website presents The city’s website makes no mention of this, but those increases are cumulative. The city’s own data shows a GO bond tax increase on the $140,000 home/$15,000 car of $13.67 in fiscal year 2018. The following year it will be $26.95, then 39.62 and $52.32 in fiscal years 2020 and 2021. These figures represent the genuine cost of the GO bonds.

To get to the $8 figure, the city factors in the retirement of other bonds that will be paid off during the life of the GO bond. Those issues are independent of the matter in front of voters on April 4 and ought not be considered. The $8 figure also assumes that the city will not issue any new special or general obligation bonds until the year 2056. How seriously can we take projections based on the assumption that Kansas City won’t issue any more bonds over the next 40 years?

To keep things simple, I calculated the GO bond impact to taxpayers independent of other bonds that would expire or that might be issued. Using the city’s own assumptions on interest and growth in assessed value, the total additional tax paid for a $140,000 home and $15,000 car is $4,152.98 over the life of the bonds. The property tax increase called for in this GO bond will start at $13.68 in FY2018, gradually climb to a peak of $206.13 in FY2037, and then decrease to $7.77 in FY2056.

I wish these assumptions were made available by the city on its website. But now we know: the GO bonds will cost much more than we’re being told. And the way in which the city arrives at its own estimate of the cost to taxpayers is less than transparent.

Summer 2017 Internships

The Show-Me Institute is pleased to offer internship opportunities for Summer 2017.

  • Internships are open to current undergraduate and graduate students, as well as recent graduates.
  • Internships last approximately four to five months. The exact starting and ending dates are flexible, but we anticipate that each internship will run from June 5 until August 11.
  • Summer interns will work a part- or full-time schedule (9 a.m. to 5 p.m.).
  • Interns will be involved in many aspects of the Institute’s operations and will work closely with senior staff on a wide variety of projects. They can expect greater responsibility and personal attention than they would receive at larger organizations.
  • Interns will assist staff members with a range of tasks that may include researching public policy topics, organizing events, and writing and editing op-eds, newsletters, studies, and other documents. Some administrative and clerical work also will be required.
  • Policy internships as well as communications and development internships are available.
  • A Show-Me Institute internship is an excellent opportunity to improve your research and writing skills. Each intern will produce regular blog posts and an op-ed on a public policy topic of interest to him or her. Each intern will receive feedback and assistance from SMI staff members throughout the process.
  • Internships are available at the office in St. Louis or Kansas City.
  • Interns will be paid on an hourly basis.

Those wishing to be considered for an internship should submit an application and the requested supporting materials. The deadline for applications is Friday, April 21, 2017. However, we will begin conducting interviews as applications are received. Applicants can expect a decision in late May.

Criminal Justice Reform: Expanding Parole

HB38, which would relax the requirements for prison time served before a person is eligible for parole, is a welcome reform to Missouri’s prison system. I hope it is the beginning of broader criminal justice reforms in Missouri.

Under current law, prison inmates must serve a minimum portion of their sentence before they are eligible for parole. Those percentages range from 40% for those with previous prison commitments to 85% for those with three previous prison commitments. Any inmate convicted of a dangerous felony must serve 85% of their sentence. HB 38 gives sentencing courts discretion over when an inmate is eligible for parole. Courts may still require prisoners to serve up to the current percentages set above—but judges would no longer be required to do so.

The bill also permits all Missouri inmates to be considered for parole if:

  • Their crime did not include a particularly heinous motive or involve physical harm or a firearm.
  • The inmate has been a model prisoner and demonstrated they are capable of rehabilitation.

HB38 offers the potential not only to reward good behavior and promote rehabilitation, but also to spare taxpayers the unnecessary cost of locking up potentially productive members of society.

Pernicious: St. Louis Goes Forward with Minimum Wage Hike

On Tuesday, February 28, 2017, the Missouri State Supreme Court upheld Saint Louis City’s right to raise its minimum wage. While the court’s decision may make legal sense, it is still bad economics. Enacting this ordinance will harm the poorest of workers. That’s why I describe it as pernicious.

The state minimum wage is currently $7.65. In 2015, the City of Saint Louis sought to raise the minimum wage on businesses within its borders. This initial attempt was struck down by a circuit court judge in 2015, but Tuesday’s ruling reversed that decision. As a result, the minimum wage that applies to businesses within Saint Louis proper (not the county or surrounding areas) will rise to $10 this year and $11 in 2018.

Saint Louis businesses will face higher labor costs, putting them at a competitive disadvantage against businesses located just across the city–county boundary. If I were an entrepreneur or business owner unsure of where to locate or expand, this minimum wage increase helped make the decision for me.

Show-Me Institute analysts have written many times about the effects of minimum wages hikes; see here and here for two examples. There are two main effects from this wrongheaded action.

First, and most obvious, raising the minimum wage imposes higher costs on businesses. Some of those businesses simply will not be able to maintain current operations: they will reduce the number of workers they employ, close up shop, or move. Why is it that supporters of the minimum wage hike have so much disdain for small business owners? After all, not every employer is McDonald’s.

Liberals and conservatives alike recognize that increases in the minimum wage will negatively affect exactly those workers for whom proponents claim to be champions; namely, the least skilled, entry level workers whom this higher wage will make even more unemployable. This is perhaps the most pernicious (there’s that word again) effect of all: Of the city’s estimated 69,000 individuals earning less than $11 an hour, how many will lose their jobs or face reduced hours? Can proponents claim success if the number of employed individuals declines by 6, or 600, or 6,000? It is bad policy that claims success on the backs of those made worse off.

And how many of those who are harmed by this latest minimum wage increase will we see interviewed so that the public understands how they were put out of a job by this unwise intervention? My guess is that the answer is zero. Out of sight, out of mind.

Lawmakers and union leaders will now sing their own praises and pat themselves on the back for the “good” they have done—no matter how much harm is done to workers and business owners.

Show-Me Now! Why Expand MetroLink?

Proponents of the multi-billion dollar MetroLink expansion proposal claim the system is underdeveloped, but is the opposite actually true?

Learn more about MetroLink:

Shaky Assumptions, Track Record Warrant Caution on GO Bond

Kansas City’s elected leaders have been speaking far and wide about the GO Bond before voters on April 4. Their presentations focus on what could be done with the money, and attendees often ask about the amounts that will be spent on sidewalks, streets, and an animal shelter. But often overlooked are two important points: the city’s assumptions about cost and how the city council spends money.

At a public meeting in Waldo, Finance Department Director Randy Landes said, “the average impact to the property tax owner . . . is an $8 increase each year.” The Mayor and other council members have said largely the same thing. A reasonable listener would conclude that the cost is only $8 per year. But that would be incorrect.

Using the city’s own numbers, the cost of the tax to a person with a $140,000 house and $15,000 car would be $13.68 the first year and would increase every subsequent year until it reached $206.13 in 2037. After that point, the payments each year would gradually decrease. After the last bond payment is made in 2056, this property owner would have paid $4,152.98. The owner of a $100,000 house and $15,000 car would pay $3,154.24.

Why city leaders chose the $8 “average annual increase” figure is puzzling, because that number is largely meaningless. Voters should know the annual cost, not the average annual increase in the cost. The city also reaches this number by doing two questionable things. First, the city includes in its estimates the existing GO bonds that will be paid off over the next 20 years and therefore reduce the overall tax levy. But those reductions will happen regardless of how people vote in April. This is money that taxpayers will no longer have to pay; to use it for purposes of calculating the cost of the GO bonds is taking money that would otherwise be in the taxpayers’ pockets. The city is thereby artificially lowering the cost of the GO bond by including unrelated items.

In order to get to the $8 figure, the Finance Department is also assuming that the city will not issue any more GO bonds for 40 years. This assumption borders on being intentionally misleading. Current city leaders have no idea what subsequent councils will do, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which no new GO bonds are issued over the next four decades.

Another concern with the GO Bond is whether money will go to the stipulated projects, such as streets, sidewalks, and so on. City leaders are quick to point out that the money raised by these bonds is required to go to these purposes. But that isn’t the case with general fund money that currently funds these projects. Councilman Lucas admitted in the meeting, “If we spend important dollars on this bond obligation, we’re able to free up funds to attack other vital issues.” Money is fungible, and that means if the bonds are passed, the city will be able to reallocate general funds to projects that the voters have not vetted.

If city leaders want to be accountable, they should not ask taxpayers to commit to 40 years of increased taxes in a single vote. A more transparent approach would be to issue bonds over a much shorter period and be very explicit about where both bond and general fund money will go. As the period of each bond is completed, voters could assess how prudently their money had been spent before committing to handing over more money in a subsequent vote.

Kansas City desperately needs infrastructure maintenance, and public funds are the proper way to address those needs. But based on the city’s questionable assumptions on the cost of the GO bond and on future spending, voters would be well advised to follow the old adage, buyer beware.

Moody’s Issues Negative Outlook for Kansas CIty

We’ve written before about Kansas City’s debilitating level of debt (here and here and here). And it isn’t just us; the Mayor’s own Citizens Commission on Municipal Revenue 2012 report cites high debt as a problem and warned about the negative impact to the city’s credit rating. This warning, which appears to have been ignored, was prescient. As Kansas City leaders propose borrowing $800 million dollars via a general obligation bond, a major credit agency has weighed in.

Just two weeks ago, Moody’s Investor Services, one of the nation’s premier credit rating services, revised Kansas City’s credit outlook to “negative.”

The negative outlook reflects the growth of the city’s pension obligation and, when coupled with the elevated debt burden, the increase of fixed costs outpacing revenue growth. Continued leveraging of the tax base or unabated expansion of the pension obligation will place downward pressure on the rating.

This comes as Kansas City leaders are asking voters to approve another round of debt, backed by an increase in property taxes, to pay for the sort of maintenance that the city should be paying for with our already-high property, sales and income taxes.

The problem is that city leaders keep throwing money at things like subsidies for downtown development and large consulting contracts instead of dedicating funds to basic services. Frequent borrowing and an increasing debt load mean lower credit ratings and higher borrowing costs—the city seems locked in a payday loan–like cycle. Moody’s seems to recognize this even if policymakers don’t, and citizens may have to take matters into their own hands if this cycle is to be broken.

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