Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs

It’s fitting that a new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on job openings was released during Missouri’s last week of federal pandemic-related unemployment benefits. At the end of April 2021, job openings reached 9.3 million, the highest since the BLS began its job openings series in December 2000. The industry with the largest increase in job openings from March to April was accommodation and food services, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who has seen “Help Wanted” signs at their favorite eateries. The hiring rate, on the other hand, remained unchanged at 4.2 percent from March to April.

With all these job openings, it really does seem like it’s time for things to finally get back to normal and for people to get back to work. The reasons we may have needed additional unemployment benefits during the height of the pandemic are fading fast—businesses are opening, vaccines are widely available, and people are returning to life outside their homes.

The economy is recovering from the pandemic, but it’s possible that increased federal unemployment benefits have slowed down our recovery by causing people to push back their job search. Governor Parson decided that Missouri would end all federal pandemic-related unemployment benefits on June 12th to incentivize people to get back to work. I think this was a smart move because jobs are clearly available. It’s time to stop relying on government handouts and fill those job openings.

Residential TIF Versus School Districts

The St. Louis TIF Commission approved a second phase of the City Foundry TIF project by a vote of 5 to 3. The first phase of this project is nearly complete, turning an old Midtown factory into a food hall with other entertainment and retail spaces. Two of the votes against the amended second phase, which now includes an apartment structure with over 280 units instead of an office building, were from the school district representatives on the TIF commission. This really shouldn’t be a surprise, as residential TIF projects have direct negative effects on school districts.

When a TIF district is created, the property taxes allocated to the school district (and all other taxing districts in the TIF district) freeze at the pre-development amount. The developer receives any increase in property tax payments due to the increase in the property value during the life of the TIF project (up to 23 years). If the property generated $100 in property taxes before it was developed and generates $300 after it was developed, the developer gets to keep the increment of $200 for certain development costs while the school district and other taxing districts continue to only receive their portion of $100.

This aspect of TIF is always harmful for these taxing districts, but it is especially harmful for school districts when the TIF project has a residential component. With such residential projects, some families with school-aged children will likely move in, and the children will likely attend the local school district. The school district, however, won’t get additional funding. How are school districts supposed to educate additional kids without the appropriate funding?

Harmful residential TIFs have been proposed elsewhere in Missouri. In some cases, the school district raises taxes on everyone to cover the additional expenses. These potentially huge negative effects on the school district—on top of the $18 million in tax dollars, sales tax exemptions, and general display of governmental special treatment—should make us question whether the City Foundry project is actually a good thing for St. Louis’s citizens.

Missouri’s $17 Million Grocery Store

The Crestwood TIF Commission is considering a proposal to redevelop the land that was once the Crestwood Mall. The plan includes a Dierbergs grocery store and multiple retail spaces that would be partially funded with $13.5 million from tax-increment financing and $3.5 million from a community improvement district. There is also a residential component of the development that will not include public funding. There is a TIF Commission public hearing on this proposal at 7 p.m. on June 17th, 2021.

Read our Testimony on The Crestwood Mall TIF Proposal here: bit.ly/3wtnO3q

Read the commission meeting notes here: bit.ly/35sv7w8

More on the Crestwood TIF:

https://showmeinstitute.org/blog/subsidies/if-at-first-you-dont-succeed/

https://showmeinstitute.org/blog/subsidies/tax-hikes-to-fund-tax-cuts/

https://showmeinstitute.org/blog/municipal-policy/what-should-crestwood-do/

Why Should the Early Bird Get the Worm?

A version of this commentary appeared in the Columbia Missourian.

Although it’s a little trite, “the early bird gets the worm” is harmless enough as far as old sayings go. Still, living by those words is one thing, and governing by them—as Lake Ozark seems to be doing—is quite another.

Food truck operators want to set up business along The Strip in the city of Lake Ozark, but the Planning and Zoning Commission is prohibiting them from doing so. While identifying consumer desire for food truck options in this area, the Commission says that its intent is to protect brick-and-mortar businesses that are already there. As the daughter of a restaurant owner, I fully support brick-and-mortar businesses, but why is the Planning and Zoning Commission choosing to protect these businesses at the expense of others, namely food trucks? Why are we only allowing the early bird a chance at getting the worm?

The commission fears that food trucks would compete with existing businesses. That is not something that should be feared; it should be expected and encouraged. In the same way that existing businesses compete with one another, food trucks should compete with other restaurants—and may the best food and dining experience win! It’s through this competition that we end up with a collection of businesses that consumers really want. That’s how competition in the market should work; consumers, not commissioners, pick winners and losers. It shouldn’t be the early bird that gets the worm, but the best bird.

After the Great Recession, many were looking for cheaper, on-the-go food options, and a lot of culinary experts were unemployed, laying the groundwork for a surge of food trucks. (And it’s not a stretch to think that our current economic situation could increase the demand for food trucks even more.) From 2013 to 2018, the number of food truck establishments in the U.S. doubled, employing over 16,000 workers in 2018 and reporting sales of $1.2 billion in 2017 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More options increase the chance that consumers find exactly what they are looking for at a price they are willing to pay. Additionally, more businesses mean more entrepreneurship and opportunities for workers.

Other cities have found ways for food trucks to operate that would be better options than an outright prohibition. For example, Clayton allows for food trucks to operate for city or private events provided that they follow specific guidelines. Branson prohibits food trucks from operating within 100 feet of a restaurant and also allows for food truck courts. While these examples still place regulatory burdens on the food trucks, they show that there are ways for brick-and-mortar restaurants and food trucks to coexist.

Existing businesses should not receive special treatment just because they already exist. We allow brick-and-mortar restaurants to compete with one another—is it really that dangerous to allow them to compete with food trucks? Lake Ozark says it’s working on an ordinance to lay the groundwork for food trucks operating in the area. I say, let all the birds go and see which one gets the worm.

WATCH: More From Show-Me on Food Trucks

Podcast: Missouri Education Spending, More Corporate Giveaways and Talk of a Special Session on Public Safety

Susan Pendergrass, Patrick Ishmael and David Stokes discuss a new report that claims Missouri ranks 49th in K-12 education funding, Property Reassessments and Upcoming Property Tax Hike Votes, new TIF deals around the state and the call from some Missouri legislators for a special session on public safety.

More ways to listen:

Apple Podcasts

Better Preparation for a Rainy Day

Imagine opening a savings account so that you can put aside some money in case of an emergency. But when you go to the bank, the bank won’t allow you to put as much money in the account as you think you’ll need. And when an emergency arises, you are only allowed to withdraw half of what you had put away. That wouldn’t be a very helpful savings account, would it? That’s essentially how Missouri’s rainy-day fund works today.

Missouri’s savings account, or rainy-day fund, was created more than two decades ago to serve two purposes: provide the state government with short-term liquidity (cash flow) and help stabilize the state’s budget whenever there’s an unexpected shortfall (emergency). On average, Missouri spends a little more than $800 million in state tax dollars every month. With such significant spending obligations, it’s relatively common for the timing of revenue collections and immediate spending needs to not perfectly align. When this happens, the state’s budget administrator can authorize the transfer of some funds from the rainy-day account to help fill the short-term cash-flow gap. The only requirement is that the amount borrowed must be repaid to the fund by May 16th of the current fiscal year. So long as the cash-flow needs are truly short term, the fund can be reliably used for this purpose.

When the disparity between revenue collections and spending obligations are longer term—for example, during a recession or pandemic—Missouri’s current rainy-day fund is much less useful. The fund has a strict minimum and maximum balance, which can be problematic when times are bad. Each year, the fund typically has around $700 million at the beginning of the state’s fiscal year, before money is borrowed for cash flow. Missouri ranks in the bottom half of states for available savings, and during the 2008 recession state tax revenues declined by more than a billion dollars. In other words, the current fund is too small.

There are also strict rules about how the funds can be spent, and how they must be repaid. First, the governor must declare a state of emergency, or state expenditures must be reduced below their original estimates (which would happen if there was a revenue shortfall because Missouri’s budget must remain balanced at all times). Then the governor must request that the legislature approve emergency use of the fund, and the legislature must approve the proposed use by a two-thirds majority. Once approved, only half of the fund’s balance can be used for budget stabilization, and at least one third of the borrowed amount must be repaid by the following July 15th. In short, the fund is very hard to use.

The difficulty in using Missouri’s rainy-day fund for budget stabilization discourages lawmakers from calling on the fund in times of need. Its insufficient balance makes any effort even less worthwhile. While some of the limitations placed on the fund’s use are likely an effort to ward against improper overuse and needed, there’s a fine line between discouraging bad behavior and encouraging inaction. In fact, ever since this version of Missouri’s rainy-day fund was created in 1999, it’s never been used for anything other than cash-flow assistance.

The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the importance of governments preparing for rainy days. Ensuring Missouri’s rainy-day fund is something that can be reliably turned to when unforeseen events arise would help our state prepare for the future. I know I’d never sign up for a savings account like Missouri’s.

How Are We Recovering? (Part 3)

Now that we’ve discussed unemployment insurance (UI) in general and in connection with the Great Recession, it’s time to analyze UI in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. As we all know, the federal government substantially increased unemployment cash benefits and broadened eligibility. Many people couldn’t go to work and many businesses couldn’t operate, leading to our national unemployment rate peaking at 14.8 percent back in April 2020.

The CARES Act made several large changes to the unemployment insurance system. These changes were intended to be temporary and preserve family and small business finances during the period of greatest uncertainty. Specifically, the CARES Act extended the duration of unemployment benefits, added a $600 weekly supplement to the usual state benefit amount, expanded eligibility to gig workers and many others traditionally excluded from the unemployment insurance system, and introduced other modifications such as the waiving of job search requirements to account for the unique circumstances of the pandemic. At the end of 2020, the federal government extended into March the supplemental benefit amount at a lower level of $300, and President Biden’s American Rescue Plan extended these enhanced benefits further until September 2021.

These changes to the unemployment system have undoubtedly had major effects on individuals and the economy. The additional $600 was certainly beneficial for the financial situation of the unemployed; researchers have found that additional benefits from the CARES Act resulted in 76 percent of unemployed people earning more than their previous wages on unemployment between April and July. In Missouri, the median replacement rate of UI benefits (including the $600) to lost wage earnings was 154 percent, meaning those on unemployment made 54 percent more than their lost wages. Even with these extra earnings, research has found that unemployment benefits did not harm job growth in spring and summer 2020 when lockdown restrictions made job search very difficult.

However, conditions have changed. Most businesses are open, vaccines are available to those who want them, and the unemployment rate has fallen from 14.8 percent to 6.1 percent. Are these extra unemployment benefits still necessary? Job openings hit a preliminary record high in March and anecdotally, many businesses are struggling to find workers. It’s certainly possible that the additional $300 and the long extension to September are causing people to push back their job search and extend their time receiving UI. Jobs will likely be even more abundant by the time benefits expire, thereby reducing the risk of a delayed job search.

It seems that the job market (and therefore our economic recovery) is being helped by vaccine access and business re-openings and hurt by extended unemployment benefits. However, we may be able to see the light at the end of this UI tunnel. Governor Parson announced that Missouri would end participation in the federal pandemic unemployment programs on June 12th, saying that these benefits were always meant to be temporary and it’s time to get people back to work. The federal government is also taking steps to return to pre-pandemic UI rules. Lawmakers seem to recognize that getting people back to work is a priority and enhanced UI benefits may not have been moving us toward that goal. Hopefully, these changes will help us continue to recover quickly.

Tax Subsidy Spurious—St. Louis Grift

St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones is giving me hope with her more disciplined approach to tax subsidies in the City of St. Louis, but despite this the requests—and unfortunately, the approvals—for far too many harmful and unnecessary tax subsidies keep coming in throughout our region.

Chesterfield is a vibrant, popular, and growing area. The idea that tax subsidies are needed for businesses there is absurd. So, what does St. Louis County do when a new studio wants to build a production facility there? Well, give away the store, of course. This week the county council unanimously passed a subsidy worth between $88 and $130 million for the new business in one of the most successful and wealthy parts of the state. This is insanity.

In years past, I was honored to be able to testify in favor of tax-increment financing (TIF) reform before the state legislature alongside other reform supporters from Dierbergs Markets. So, who is now asking for a major TIF in Crestwood, another prosperous St. Louis County suburb with no need to give away tax subsidies? Dierbergs, of course. It wants $17 million in subsidies to open a grocery store just down the block from a competing grocery store. Crestwood giving away this money would be insanity.

Hopefully, the St. Louis County TIF Commission will reject this wasteful TIF, just as County Executive Page’s TIF appointees admirably did with the Maryland Heights floodplain TIF monstrosity that was rejected in early 2020.

Finally, despite Mayor Jones’ efforts, St. Louis City commissions keep approving subsidy upon subsidy, including a new $92 million subsidy for a downtown hotel that already received a separate TIF a few years back. If the first subsidy doesn’t work, just give them another, I guess. Hopefully, Mayor Jones will oppose this proposal, too.

Just like the Fast & Furious franchise, the plotlines for tax subsidies keep getting recycled over and over. Recent tax subsidy vetoes and rejections by the Jones and Page administrations give me some hope, but sometimes it feels as if the cruise ship is sinking and all one has is a small bucket to bail with.

“If You Ain’t First, You’re Last!”

It’s billed as The Greatest Spectacle in Racing, but the Indianapolis 500 isn’t just a sporting event. At its core, the Indy 500 is a tradition steeped in American notions of meritocracy and competition. Behind the wheels of the cars will be domestic and international drivers, past winners and current challengers, veteran drivers and rookies making their debuts. If you’re one of the best drivers on the planet, there is probably a seat waiting for you in one of the 33 cars on the track this weekend.

And if you’re like me and not one of the best drivers in the world, well, there’s always a seat in the stadium or at home. After all, it is a spectator sport.

But what’s all this have to do with Missouri? A lot, actually. Indiana, home to the 500, is often viewed as a peer and competitor to Missouri, and in recent years, the Hoosier State has started pulling ahead of us in economic growth. At the end of World War II, Missouri’s population was a touch larger than Indiana’s; today Indiana is larger than Missouri by a half-million people, with a bigger economy to boot.

For years, Missouri has behaved more like a spectator than a racer in this economic competition. Missouri is falling behind, and as Institute analysts have written before, Missouri’s not just falling behind Indiana in the race for growth.

The good news is it seems like Missouri policymakers may finally be turning a corner. The 2021 legislative session was generally a very positive one that built on some of the good government and deregulatory progress made in recent years. In fact, the state started gaining some national accolades for the work of its policymakers, especially the work on licensing reforms. As someone who’s been at the Show-Me Institute for about a decade now, I can tell you that national accolades for Missouri lawmaking weren’t just rare before; they were virtually non-existent.

But will this positive trend continue? Time will tell. There is so much work left to be done for real school choice, tax credit reform, protecting individuals’ rights and reining in overreaching local government, and so many other issues that we’ve talked about again and again. While the 2021 session was good, it still could have been much better.

“If you ain’t first, you’re last!” Ricky Bobby declares after a race in the comedy Talladega Nights, and while the line’s tied up in Will Ferrell’s patented oafishness, the mentality isn’t exactly wrong. Missouri policymakers need to—and should continue to—think not in terms of what maintains the status quo in the state, but in terms of what can make the state the best.

The race for growth and reform has already started, and right now Missouri is stuck in the middle of the pack. Missouri policymakers, in this summer’s special sessions and beyond, should race to win against our fellow states. Racing to do anything short of winning for Missourians is losing.

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