• Publications and Model Policy
    • Blueprint for Missouri
    • Model Policy
    • MOGE
    • Report
      • Case Study
      • Policy Study
      • Essay
    • The Missouri School Rankings Project
    • Testimony
    • Newsletter
  • Blog
    • Daily Blog
    • Podcasts and Radio
    • Video
    • Infographics
    • Commentary / Op-Eds
    • Events
  • Events
  • Donate
  • About
    • Our Team
    • Show-Me Institute Board of Directors
    • Fellows and Scholars
    • Our Authors
    • Jobs
  • Contact
  • Explore Topics
    • Education
      • Accountability
      • Education Finance
      • Performance
      • School Choice
      • The Missouri School Rankings Project
    • Health Care
      • Free-Market Reform
      • Medicaid
    • Corporate Welfare
      • Special Taxing Districts
      • Subsidies
      • Tax Credits
    • Labor
      • Government Unions
      • Public Pensions
    • State and Local Government
      • Budget and Spending
      • Courts
      • Criminal Justice
      • Municipal Policy
      • Property Rights
      • Transparency
      • Transportation
    • Economy
      • Business Climate
      • Energy
      • Minimum Wage
      • Privatization
      • Regulation
      • Taxes
      • Welfare
      • Workforce
Show Me InstituteShow Me Institute
Show Me InstituteShow Me Institute
Support the Show-Me Institute
  • Publications and Model Policy
    • Blueprint for Missouri
    • Model Policy
    • MOGE
    • Report
      • Case Study
      • Policy Study
      • Essay
    • The Missouri School Rankings Project
    • Testimony
    • Newsletter
  • Blog
    • Daily Blog
    • Podcasts and Radio
    • Video
    • Infographics
    • Commentary / Op-Eds
    • Events
  • Events
  • Donate
  • About
    • Our Team
    • Show-Me Institute Board of Directors
    • Fellows and Scholars
    • Our Authors
    • Jobs
  • Contact
  • Explore Topics
    • Education
      • Accountability
      • Education Finance
      • Performance
      • School Choice
      • The Missouri School Rankings Project
    • Health Care
      • Free-Market Reform
      • Medicaid
    • Corporate Welfare
      • Special Taxing Districts
      • Subsidies
      • Tax Credits
    • Labor
      • Government Unions
      • Public Pensions
    • State and Local Government
      • Budget and Spending
      • Courts
      • Criminal Justice
      • Municipal Policy
      • Property Rights
      • Transparency
      • Transportation
    • Economy
      • Business Climate
      • Energy
      • Minimum Wage
      • Privatization
      • Regulation
      • Taxes
      • Welfare
      • Workforce
×

Economy / Workforce

How Are We Recovering? (Part 1)

By Corianna Baier on Apr 23, 2021
Unemployment rate
Liftwood / Shutterstock

The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been much more rapid and robust than people initially predicted. It’s possible that memories of the slow rebound from the Great Recession created pessimistic expectations. However, despite the faster-than-expected rebound in 2020, employers are reportedly experiencing hiring difficulties, which may slow the return to economic prosperity. Evidence from the aftermath of the Great Recession suggests one risk factor that may delay jobs recovery: generous unemployment benefit extensions. This blog post will be the first in a series that discusses the unemployment insurance program, its economic effects, and its implications for the current recovery.

In the spring of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns quickly sent our country into unimaginable economic lows. The national unemployment rate reached its peak of 14.8 percent in April 2020 while Missouri’s unemployment rate jumped to 12.5 percent the same month. However, the economy has bounced back faster than expected. Recent numbers show the national unemployment rate at 6.2 percent in February 2021, and Missouri’s preliminary unemployment rate for January 2021 was 4.2 percent.

Though still higher than the national unemployment rate of 3.5 percent from January 2020, we’ve recovered much more quickly than we did from the Great Recession.  It took nearly five years for the unemployment rate to fall from its peak of 10 percent in October 2009 to below 6 percent. As the image below shows, unemployment reached an even higher peak during the pandemic but has still managed to fall to 6 percent in less than a year’s time.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2020/article/employment-recovery.htm

Perhaps the historical fiscal relief packages passed in 2020 help explain the more robust recovery. The CARES Act was passed in March 2020 to support the economy in a variety of ways through a period of widespread lockdowns. Included in the CARES Act was enhanced unemployment insurance to help those who had lost their jobs at a time when it was difficult to find jobs.

However, with the economy re-opening, job postings on the rise, and accelerating vaccinations signaling a potential end to the pandemic, it is worth re-examining the evidence on the effects of unemployment benefits during downturns and recoveries. Are the benefit extensions helping the recovery by sustaining consumer spending, or are they slowing the recovery by discouraging people from searching for jobs by paying them generously not to work? This will be discussed in future blog posts.

  • Share
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Email
  • Print
About the author

Corianna Baier

More about this author >
Footer Logo
Support the Show-Me-Institute
Showmeinstitute.org is brought to you by Show-Me Institute and Show-Me Opportunity.
  • Publications
  • Blog
  • Events
  • Donate
  • About
  • Contact

Reprint permission for Show-Me Institute publications and commentaries is hereby granted, provided that proper credit is given to the author. We request, but do not require, that those who reprint our material notify us of publication for our records: [email protected].

Mission Statement
Advancing liberty with responsibility by promoting market solutions for Missouri public policy.

© Copyright 2025 All Rights Reserved