The Long Tail of Choice

Now it’s my turn to disagree. Not to the idea that there are too many school districts — I have no way to measure the optimum balance between the value of competition and the efficiency of consolidation — but to the notion that "too many choices" can ultimately make us worse-off.

David Stokes links to a New Yorker review of Barry Schwartz’s book The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less, noting that when faced with an ever-growing variety of products from which to choose, "at some point, the variety of choices leads to diminishing returns." I don’t dispute that this can be the case — for a majority of people, most of the time, even — but that this is no argument for artificial elimination of any of those choices.

Sometimes eliminating choices is a business strategy that makes sense. Some restaurants are getting rid of menus, some supermarkets are paring down the number of items on their shelves, and the Internet is filled with advice on how to make decisions effectively — suggesting that there’s a wide range of people out there that needs help coping with the bewildering array of choices life has to offer them.

So, yes, I grant all of this. And yet … it’s easy to forget that the long tail has become the basis for the most valuable new business plans of the Internet age. The idea here is that people have such widely varied tastes that the many items people buy very little of, with low market share, add up to a mass of options that rivals the popular items that nearly everybody buys.

Schwartz coined a couple of terms for different types of deision-makers: "maximizers" and "satisficers."

Continue reading “The Long Tail of Choice”

Missouri Must Get Honest About Toll Roads

Via John Combest, the Kansas City Star has an excellent editorial on future transportation funding in Missouri. Key statement:

"Any comprehensive approach should also authorize the use of tolls."

Amen to that. MoDOT simply does not and will not have the money in the long run to build and maintain the transportation system that our state’s people and economy require. Tolls are a way to finance transportation paid for by the entities that use the system. And I don’t mean just allowing MoDOT to build new toll roads. I mean using private companies to build, operate and maintain highways and bridges in Missouri under contract with the state. All options must be available to build and maintain the best transportation system possible. Much, much more on this issue in the future from the Show-Me Institute. 

I Designate Myself the Official Sarah of the State of Missouri

I like three-toed box turtles almost as much as crayfish. But this still strikes me as a bad idea:

Legislation signed into law Thursday by Gov. Matt Blunt designates the three-toed box turtle as the official reptile of Missouri and makes the crayfish, also known as the crawfish or crawdad, the official state invertebrate […]

Blunt said he assumes there will be more, because children get both a science and government lesson when they research and advocate for their favorite plants and animals.

"It’s amazing what they come up with up," Blunt said. "I’m sure we’ll be stunned by their innovation as we name yet another state symbol next year."

We just can’t have a symbol for every middle-school class in the country. A few symbols are cute. A few hundred symbols are a waste of time on the part of our elected officials.

I’m also bothered by the idea that kids have to get their own law passed in order to learn about the legislative process. Kids can learn about the legislative process by visiting Jefferson City, listening to debates over the internet, or volunteering for campaigns. We would never make sixth-graders governor for the day to learn about the executive branch (although a few people might like that).

Sarah is Brilliant, But Nonetheless Wrong …

Sarah Brodsky disagrees with my opinion that there are too many school districts (524 to be exact) in Missouri. Her argument is that choice breeds competition, competition benefits schools and students, and more districts means more competition. She cites a study that proves her point. I don’t doubt the study but it explicitly states that it is measuring and comparing results in metropolitan area school districts, not rural areas. From the study:

That is, the effects are substantial if one considers moving from one end of the Tiebout choice spectrum (a metropolitan area like Miami) to the other (a metropolitan area like Boston). Naturally, most metropolitan areas are between the two ends of the spectrum, and the current variation in Tiebout choice among metropolitan areas explains a modest amount of their differences in school productivity.

My point clearly stated that I think too many small, rural school districts are the primary problem here.  Further, choice is indeed a wonderful thing in many ways, but simple logic dictates that there is a limit to the top number. If 524 is not too many districts, then would we be better off with 1,200? Of course there is a limit to the benefits of choice contained by a large number of districts. I think 524 is WAY too high. The tax dollars wasted by 524 sets of administration, upkeep on a large number of underattended schools, and much more, clearly tell me the number should be much lower. What should it be? I have no idea, but cutting it in half would be a good start — and still give Missourians plenty of choice.

There is such a thing as too much choice. This article sums up the various ideas very well. From my own experience as a recent father, I would call it the "Babies ‘R’ Us" dilemma. If one company had a monopoly on making baby bottles, that would be terrible. Just two companies is better, but still bad. But at some point, the variety of choices leads to diminishing returns. Just go to "Babies ‘R’ Us" and try to decide which of the two dozen brands of bottles is right for your child. If you are like me, you quickly realize that the amount of time spent trying to determine that answer would be an enormous effort that would almost certainly result in more or less a tie among the products. So you just trust that "Babies ‘R’ Us" has tested them all, and buy the ones on sale.

The More the Merrier

Blogs are no fun if all the contributors echo each other. To prevent that from happening here, the Show-Me Institute hired both me and Dave Stokes. I must disagree with Dave’s post arguing that Missouri has too many school districts. As Caroline Hoxby has shown, more districts mean more competition, which leads to higher student achievement per dollar spent. When families move to an area, they usually look at the different available school districts before buying a house. They have more options in areas where there are many different districts.

There Are Way Too Many School Districts In Missouri!

The Post-Dispatch has an article today on Fort Zumwalt School District in St. Charles County opening its fourth high school next school year. This puts Fort Zumwalt in select company, as one of only six school districts in Missouri with four high schools, out of more than 500 school districts. Others may read this article and want to congratulate Fort Zumwalt, which is fine, but I read it and despair over the enormous number of school districts that are tiny and should be forcibly merged with neighboring districts.

Most of the extremely small districts are in the rural areas, although St. Louis County has some, Hancock Place and Bayless mostly, that should merge. It’s not as if these small, rural districts just want to be left alone to operate by themselves. Many of them are currently suing the State of Missouri for more tax money. I hope they lose their lawsuit and the state refuses to increase financial support for any school district below a set number of students.

Missouri has as much duplication in government as any state. The examples abound: too many St. Louis City Alderman, to many St. Louis County municipalities, too many state representatives, too many separate counties, and way too many school districts.

On another note, the new school, Fort Zumwalt East, has chosen its new mascot and colors: the Lions, and black and gold. Nice to see they are starting off the new school by copying everything from University City High School. Next, I bet Fort Zumwalt will put enormous lion statues at the entrance to O’Fallon.

To Each His Own

On Missourinet, a post encourages all of us to serve on state boards:

Jessica Robinson with the Governor’s office says there is bound to be a board or commission that appeals to just about every Missourian.

No kidding. There’s a Wine and Grape Board, a Committee of Interpreters, a Holocaust Education and Awareness Commission, Interior Design Council, and the Committee of Marital and Family Therapists. My favorite is the Board of Geologist Registration. Members of this board get paid to attend meetings and conference calls about licensing geologists. Those meetings probably seem fun if the alternative is studying rocks.

How About Just Scrapping No Child Left Behind!?

An article in the St. Joseph News Press (via Combest) discusses Rep. Sam Graves’ (R-MO) move to make No Child Left Behind more flexible for the states to implement:

Congress should cede more accountability for student academic progress to local school districts, teachers and parents, U.S. Rep. Sam Graves told educators Wednesday. In addition, the Northwest Missouri congressman said No Child Left Behind legislation should look to growth-based models as more fair and accurate ways to track grade-level proficiencies.

We need to be a little bit less rigid with the expectations, Mr. Graves, a Tarkio Republican, said.

Better yet, how about removing the federal government from its role in education altogether. No Child Left Behind and other federal interjections into school has not helped improve schools one bit. In fact, they have probably made schools worse-off, because they had to meet federal regulations to receive federal money. Only through harnessing the distributed knowledge of local educators who know the tendencies of their own school districts, rather than a burdensome federal bureaucracy that is stuck in DC, can a school district reach its potential.

Pathbreaking Reform – In Missouri!

Thanks are again due to Combest for linking to a letter by state Rep. Doug Ervin Kearney in the Springfield News-Leader:

Less attention has been paid to the Missouri Health Insurance Portability and Accessibility Act (HB 818) designed to assist small businesses and individuals in purchasing health insurance through a number of innovations predicated on tax equity and portability of health insurance […]

This bill, while getting little media attention at home, is gaining much interest nationally among other states looking for market-based solutions to assist the uninsured and uninsurable. Missouri is emerging as a leader in health care transformation.

While everybody loudly debates the midwife provision that got snuck in, few people notice all the good that the rest of the bill will do. Helping consumers take responsibility for their own health care is big news. Everybody should be celebrating this legislation — even those of us who aren’t practitioners of tocology.

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