New AEI Report Challenges Gloomy Views of Worker Pay

Posted on by Patrick Tuohey

Years ago I delivered testimony on the minimum wage to the Kansas City Council. After my remarks, a councilwoman asked about a chart showing worker productivity rising while wages remained stagnant. A video of that testimony and my written response to her question is available here.

I think of that again because a new report by the American Enterprise Institute’s Scott Winship, “Understanding Trends in Worker Pay over the Past 50 Years,” addresses the fallacy of that chart and the broader claim that productivity and wages have not grown apace. Contrary to claims from some on both the political left and right, who argue that pay has stagnated despite economic growth, Winship presents evidence that overall compensation has grown in line with productivity when correctly measured.

The analysis begins by correcting misconceptions about wage stagnation. Winship shows that median worker pay, though not rising as dramatically as some top earners, has increased significantly when considering total compensation rather than just hourly wages.

Winship also addresses the discrepancy in pay growth between different groups. He notes that women’s pay has increased more rapidly than men’s over the past several decades.

Winship suggests that instead of accepting a gloomy narrative of failing capitalism or deteriorating worker conditions, policymakers should focus on boosting productivity and enhancing skills among middle- and working-class Americans.

The report paints a more optimistic picture of American workers’ pay trends relative to productivity over the past fifty years. While there are opportunities to enact policies that could improve workers’ economic mobility, they must be built on the solid understanding of wages that Winship advances.

Let’s Just Get Rid of Personal Responsibility for Everyone

Posted on by David Stokes

It is hard to overstate how seriously the City of St. Louis appears to be leaning into just giving other people’s money away. I’m sure I’ll be mocked for stating that it appears the goal of city leaders is to remove the last vestiges of personal responsibility for lower-income city residents and put everyone on the dole, but a quick review of recent policy decisions at city hall leads me to that conclusion.

Let’s recap. In 2015, the city passed its ridiculous source-of-income rule that requires landlords in the city to accept housing vouchers. Keep in mind that most housing vouchers involve the Section 8 program, where participation is voluntary. But in the city, and in four other towns in Missouri, you are required to participate.

The other actions are all more recent. In recent months, city leaders have:

The only silver lining to all of this is that the current city leadership is so poor at municipal administration that these programs are only going to “help” a small number of people. It’s almost as if the political message behind them is more important than the programs themselves. (In these cases, that is a good thing.)

This expansion of the local welfare state is the last thing St. Louis needs to turn itself around.

So Predictable

Posted on by Susan Pendergrass

For almost a year there have been dire discussions of a coming “fiscal cliff” in public education spending. What is this doomsday fiscal cliff you might ask, and why is it going to happen? Simply stated, it is the expiration of federal stimulus funds that were sent to states during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic emergency has ended and, therefore, at some point, so will the emergency spending. Or, as described by the chairman of the Missouri Board of Education in a recent article, “you have a lot of federal authority deleted.” Huh? So, naturally, the drumbeat has begun for big asks of lawmakers to appropriate state funds that will make up the difference.

Let’s look at this with a clear head. The chart below shows Missouri state and federal revenue for public education, adjusted for inflation, from before the pandemic through the recently approved budget for the 2024–25 school year. In 2017–18, there were just under 920,000 students in pre-K through 12th grade in Missouri and the state legislature appropriated a total of $5.8 million (2023 dollars) from the general revenue fund and other state funds. The federal government kicked in another $1.3 million, largely for the Title I program for low-income students, the IDEA program for students with disabilities, and the school lunch program. Last year, even after the recovery from the pandemic enrollment drops, we had about 25,000 fewer students—a trend that is expected to continue. Yet, the legislature’s appropriation was about $500 million more than seven years ago.

The cliff is in that green hump at the top of the graph. Like a hike in the mountains, if you do a lot of climbing, you’re going to have to descend at some point to get back to your car.

So, is it obvious that we need a special session to get a “mother of all supplemental budgets” for education? Only if you believe that spending can only ever go up. Missouri, like many states, has a persistent trend of declining enrollment. Is it reasonable to think that we can only ever consider level or increased spending on public education?

Release Those Records, Kansas City!

Posted on by Patrick Tuohey

According to documents received from Clay County through an open records request, the Royals suspended negotiations regarding a new stadium on January 16 to “work through a competing opportunity in Jackson County.”

Two Clay County Commissioners, Jason Withington and Scott Wagner, as well as Jackson County Executive Frank White, stated publicly that Kansas City—which sits in Jackson County—made a significant offer over and above the Jackson County sales tax that changed the course of those negotiations.

What was that offer?

We don’t know. Similar open records requests to Kansas City were denied citing ongoing negotiations. Clay County leaders initially denied requests as well. However, the Clay County Commission was made aware of the records request and the dubious claims made to keep those records closed. On February 22, the commission agreed to release the documents.

The Kansas City Council should follow suit. As I wrote to all the members of the Council on April 15:

The City denied my records request (R012348-030124) relying on an understanding of Missouri statutes that allows for sealed bids to be closed. But the negotiations with the Royals were not the result of any bid responding to a city-issued RFP or RFQ. They were more likely similar to any negotiations for incentives that go through the EDC—which are all public documents. Even if they were sealed initially, the vote itself is a clear sign that those negotiations are ended. The documents are public.

Please exercise your legislative authority by directing the city to release these term sheets, any related documents and their various iterations over time. The April 2 campaign was dogged by a lack of transparency—the measure’s defeat is a clear signal that Kansas Citians should know more, not less, about these negotiations.

I’ve received no responses to that email. There is no indication that the city is in any ongoing negotiations. And even if it were, there is no reason to keep the prior negotiations secret.

When Do Summer Breaks Start for School Districts Across Missouri?

Posted on by Avery Frank

Many families may be beginning to wonder if their children’s school gets out earlier or later than everyone else’s. With summer break on the horizon (some schools are actually already on break), let’s look at summer breaks for Missouri public school districts by the numbers.

*Statistics are based on a self-compiled compilation of calendars. If snows/sick days have shifted the last day of school, they are not accounted for.

**Kairos Academies, Clarksburg C-2, Clarkton C-4, Crocker R-II, Eldon R-I, La Salle Charter School, Mark Twain R-VIII, New York R-IV, Premier Charter School, The Biome, Thornfield R-I, and Union Star R-II are not accounted for.

Skyline R-II was the first district to start summer break, on May 1. Hazelwood and Ferguson-Florissant will be among the final districts to go on break on May 31.

Based on the projected last day of class, if you are a St. Louis kid, you are probably getting out later than everyone else. Of the 15 traditional school districts (non-charters using a five-day school week) that end classes May 28 or later, 11 of them are in the St. Louis area. These St. Louis–area schools are Ferguson-Florissant, Hazelwood, Clayton, Ft. Zumwalt, Parkway, Wentzville, Ladue, Maplewood-Richmond Heights, University City, Mehlville, and Riverview Gardens.

How long do most summer breaks last in Missouri?

*Based on the projected number of days, we rounded the district to the nearest week. For example, a district with an 81-day summer would be coded as “12 weeks.”

**In this estimation we assume districts have the same first day of school as 2023-2024, and then subtracted that number by two. In 2020, Missouri mandated that Missouri public schools’ first day of school cannot be before a certain date. In 2023-2024, it was August 21st. For 2024-2025, it will be August 19th, two days earlier.

As the above figure displays, the average summer break is a little over three months for Missouri students. The shortest summer break is roughly 10 weeks, while the longest is around four months at 16 weeks. The rural districts (enrollment in parentheses) of Fairview R-XI (493), Glenwood R-VIII (218), Howell Valley R-I (209), Junction Hill C-12 (193), and Richards R-V (343) all have nearly four-month summer vacations—with May 2 as their last day of class, and August 21 as their first day of class in 2023–2024.

Interestingly, the districts that have the shortest summer breaks all tend to be St. Louis–area districts, with Ferguson-Florissant and Hazelwood having the shortest breaks. Along with these two, Clayton, Ft. Zumwalt, Parkway C-2, Wentzville, Ladue, University City, Mehlville, Riverview Gardens, Affton, Bayless, Brentwood, Francis Howell, Orchard Farm, Rockwood, and Valley Park all have estimated summer breaks under 90 days.

How do these statistics differ amongst various types of schools?

The above figures are known as a box and whisker plot. The vertical line (whiskers) represents the full range, while the box represents the middle 50 percent of responses. Any statistical outliers are noted as dots, the horizontal line is the median, and the “x” is the mean.

As shown, rural schools on average have much longer summer breaks than their suburban and city counterparts. Additionally, most of the longest breaks in the state are rural—of the 50 longest summer breaks in the state, 47 of them are rural districts. While this may be reflective of the bygone days when most rural children worked on farms, Institute analysts have conducted research that found rural high school students may have fewer opportunities and lower rate of college readiness than their suburban counterparts.

Another important takeaway from these figures is the difference in break length between charters and traditional schools. Charter schools have an average (mean) summer break of 84 days, versus 92 for four-day school week districts and 94 days for traditional five-day school week districts. In Missouri, charter schools serve high proportions of disadvantaged students and shorter breaks may be a good use of charter school flexibility.

Do longer summers hurt students? Summer learning loss is a well-documented phenomenon. However, there are debates about the actual extent of achievement loss. Regardless, it is interesting to see the variability across the state and to consider if there could be academic implications.

Live Events May 22: The Insider’s Hour with Show-Me Institute

Posted on by Show-Me Institute Staff

The Missouri legislative session is over. What did the House and Senate accomplish? How did Missourians fare?

Get the scoop from the experts at the Show-Me Institute at our Insider’s Hour!

Join us at one of two open discussions with Brenda Talent, James Shuls, and Elias Tsapelas from the Show-Me Institute.

Two chances to get the scoop: 

Both Wednesday, May 22

Lunch Event

MAC West

1777 Des Peres Road

St. Louis, MO 63131

Doors open: 11:30 a.m.

Discussion and Q&A: 12-1:00 p.m.

Ticket Price: $15.00 (includes lunch and beverages)

Lunch Event Tickets Here

Evening Event

Cafe Napoli

7754 Forsyth Boulevard

St. Louis, MO 63105

Doors open: 4:30 p.m.

Discussion and Q&A: 5-5:45 p.m.

Ticket Price: $15.00 (includes a beverage and light snacks)

Evening Event Tickets Here

What Does the Latest Inflation Data Mean for the Fed’s Next Move?

Posted on by Aaron Hedlund

On May 15, 2024, Show-Me Institute Chief Economist Aaron Hedlund joined Pete Mundo on KCMO to break down the latest inflation data and discuss what it means for the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

Photo credit:

https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/partial-view-federal-reserve-fed-headquarters-2258307915

Photo ID: 2258307915

Photo Contributor: christianthiel.net

Choice versus No School Choice

Posted on by James V. Shuls

Before Governor Parson signed Senate Bill (SB) 727 into law, opinion columns across Missouri were filled with statements of opposition. Among a laundry list of things in the bill is an expansion of the MOScholars program. MOScholars provides funding for students to attend non-public schools via donations from taxpayers. The donors in turn receive a credit toward their taxes. For the most part, SB 727 opposition focused on this part of the bill

David Rosman provided a typical example of this criticism in an editorial for the Columbia Missourian: “Conservative religious leaders and politicians see public education as inferior to private, charter and religious education, but there is no proof supporting that belief.” Rosman then goes on to support his claim by arguing that we do not have an effective way of comparing public and private schools academically, noting that public schools have to accept all students, and pointing out that public school students have won more Scripps National Spelling Bee titles.

It is not clear that Rosman’s examples actually support his claim, but the bigger problem is the claim itself. He says proponents of school choice support the cause because they think public schools are inferior, particularly in the area of academics. Yet academics is just one of the many reasons families support having school choice options.

While I’ve never met a parent who has chosen a charter school or a private school because they believe it will help their child win the Scripps spelling bee, I have met many parents who chose a charter or private school because their children felt bullied in their assigned public school or because they did not feel their children’s needs were being met. I have met parents who have chosen an arts school for their children and some who have chosen a STEM school. And, yes, I have met many parents, from nearly every faith tradition, who have chosen a religious school for their children.

When advocates argue for school choice, it is not because we think all private schools are inherently better than all public schools. Quite the contrary. There are many excellent public schools and many private schools where I would never send my own children. This is not a public versus non-public issue. It is a choice versus no-choice issue. It is a freedom versus control issue.

Proponents of school choice believe parents should be able to direct the upbringing of their children. They also believe that parents should be allowed to choose the type of school that best meets the needs of their children and aligns with the goals of their family.

In short, school choice supporters see assigning students to schools as inferior to a system that allows people to choose from a myriad of educational options.

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