Here We Go Again . . . Raising The Minimum Wage

President Barack Obama delivered his State of the Union address last night and in it, he called for raising the federal minimum wage to $9 an hour. “This single step would raise the incomes of millions of working families,” he said.

This an appealing sentiment, but Prof. David Neumark’s 2012 study for the Show-Me Institute, “Should Missouri Raise Its Minimum Wage?” found that “research for the United States on state minimum wage increases generally fails to find evidence that minimum wages help the poor.” This is because the minimum wage targets low-wage workers and not low-wage families.

In 2008, 12.7 percent of all workers earning the federal minimum wage ($7.25) were in poor families, while 44.6 percent of workers earning less than $7.25 were in families that earned more than three times the poverty line. In their book “Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage,” authors David Card and Alan B. Krueger admit that the minimum wage is a “blunt instrument” for reducing poverty.

Not only would raising the minimum wage be ineffective in helping poor families, it would also mean that many businesses will hire fewer workers because of increased labor costs.

On the surface, increasing the minimum wage is an attractive idea. However, doing so does not help those who need it. The market should set wages, not the government.

More Handouts For McKee?

What we need is the death of state tax credits; but tonight, developer Paul McKee will fight to keep the budget-draining practice alive to benefit his St. Louis NorthSide Regeneration project.

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, McKee will appear before the Missouri House Economic Development Committee this evening to explain why he needs $50 million more from the state. As we have discussed, McKee has already received more than $40 million in state tax credits. He claims he has made a net investment of $63 million on the project already ($103 million minus $40 million tax credits) — but do not go thinking that his investment validates additional taxpayer money.

McKee is waiting on a $390 million Tax Increment Financing (TIF) package from the City of Saint Louis. If the court decision goes in his favor, I doubt he will have much skin in the game with this project. Add on another $50 million from the state and his total government aid will approach half a billion dollars.

Do we think that NorthSide Regeneration will have a benefit for the state that is worth half a billion dollars? I do not. One of McKee’s supporters claims that the project will save Missouri money in the future. He says NorthSide will reduce problems such as unemployment, high school dropouts, out-of-wedlock births, and murders. But the social problems in Saint Louis will not be solved with large-scale government planning. Just like when the government uses eminent domain to remove neighborhood blight, the problems of the neighborhood do not just evaporate, they move to a new location.

McKee has an army of 21 lobbyists to help him squeeze every last penny out of the state that he can. I would argue that you do not need 21 lobbyists for good ideas, only bad ones.  I am sure the state could find a better use for $50 million than giving it to McKee.

Prospect Of Medicaid Expansion Appears To Have Turned Missouri’s Credit Outlook Negative

Is federal spending “free money”? Of course not — as I have said many times, we are the federal government, which means one way or another, we will have to pay the bill it racks up. But can federal over-spending actually affect state finances negatively on its own? It sure can. Behold:

Moody’s Investors Service has changed the rating outlook to negative from stable on nine state and local governments, including the State of Missouri, and two state housing finance agency programs, in conjunction with an updated analysis of which Aaa-rated issuers have indirect linkages to the federal government.

KBIA, Columbia’s NPR affiliate, had a very interesting story this weekend that more closely examined Moody’s decision. In a story that quotes Show-Me’s own Joe Haslag, the reason for the change in outlook is pretty clear: Medicaid. Indeed, the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act will cost Missouri (us) nearly $3 billion over the next decade, and that does not include the cost to the federal government (again, also us.) How will we pay for all of this spending? Those plans do not appear to be forthcoming, unless “rack up a bunch of debt” constitutes a plan these days.

And increasingly, Missouri legislators are getting more vocal about their concerns regarding Medicaid:

“We’re faced right now with making a pretty darn big decision on Medicaid, and that is if we’re going to basically hitch our wagon a lot tighter to the federal government,” said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Kurt Schaefer, R-Columbia. “What does that mean for long-term economic stability for the state of Missouri?

“It appears to me that what got us the negative outlook, we are simply going to double down on that now if we do Medicaid expansion,” Schaeffer [sic] added.

Schaefer and Moody’s are correct in questioning the financial position of the state in the context of potentially massive new state spending that is heavily reliant on federal dollars. We should all be so concerned.

Taxes Do Harm Growth

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, in its Sat., Feb. 2, 2013, editorial, attacked Rex Sinquefield, the Show-Me Institute, legislators, and anyone who believes that income tax cuts in Kansas will have negative consequences for Missouri. The basic thesis was that by reducing the income tax rate on individuals and eliminating the tax on small businesses, Kansas will experience devastating losses in state revenue. State services, especially K-12 education, will suffer. In short, Kansas is walking off a fiscal cliff and Missouri should not follow.

So what exactly is the reckless Kansas policy that the Post-Dispatch editors tell us must be avoided at all cost? First, Kansas lowered its income tax rate from 6.45 percent to 4.9 percent on individual income. For small businesses, namely those organized as S-Corporations, LLCs, Partnerships, and Sole Proprietorships, cases in which business income that is passed through to owners, Kansas eliminated the income tax altogether.

What does economics tell us about the likely effect of such a policy? For simplicity, assume that there are two main sources of income: labor and capital. The former is the payment for supplying work effort to a firm. The latter is the payment for resources that you provide to companies and is usually returned to you after the risk you face is realized. So income from loans and other assets, along with returns to entrepreneurial activity, are deemed capital income. Given that government has to raise revenues for public needs, which should be taxed more — capital or labor? In research that Christophe Chamley and Kenneth Judd conducted independently, the conclusion is unambiguous: tax rates on capital income are very detrimental. Chamley’s and Judd’s work is in line with the analysis that two Nobel Laureates put forward: Peter Diamond and James Mirrlees, who argued that taxes should be applied to the most inelastically supplied goods. Because capital is so mobile, its supply is very elastic and the optimal tax rate on capital income is zero.

Ironically, the editors at the Post-Dispatch accept that people on the Kansas border are very mobile, just not in response to taxes. They argue that people move from Missouri to Johnson County, Kan., because of school quality. The unstated premise is that these people still work in Missouri. Will a substantial tax nudge not lead to even more people seeking out those Johnson County schools? Or, more importantly, induce employers to plant businesses where their employees want to live?

The issue for policymakers is this: for a given level of state revenue, what set of tax policies will yield the revenues while doing the least economic damage? Kansas is trying an experiment. There is an economic rationale for this experiment. If you have to tax income, there is good reason to try to separate out taxes on labor income from taxes on capital income, because capital is highly mobile. In spite of the editorial board’s heated rhetoric, the economic fundamentals favor Kansas on this one.

Joseph Haslag is chief economist and Michael Podgursky is a co-founder and director of the Show-Me Institute, which promotes market solutions for Missouri public policy.

Great New Resource For Missouri Health Care News

For those who closely follow our health care posts at Show-Me, I wanted to quickly note that Anne and Dr. Chuck Willey have started the Missouri Healthcare Solutions Initiative (MHSI,) a new website that curates the best and most interesting local and national health care news stories of the day. Interested in following what MHSI is following? You can find the website at MissouriHSI.org.

VIDEO: Talking Kansas City Border War Economics on KCPT

I was on Kansas City Public Television’s “Kansas City Week in Review” last week to discuss the impact of Kansas’ tax reform proposals on Kansas City and Missouri. Video of that segment is below. You can find more on the issues regarding Kansas’ reforms in the research paper “Passing Through Missouri: Left Behind on Taxes?” My colleague Michael Rathbone and I researched and wrote the paper, which was released last Friday. That research report expands on our previous report, “Cutting The Ties That Bind: End Missouri’s Corporate Income Tax,” which was released late last year.

Not All Ideas Are Bad – Some Are Actually Good

You might think that all I do is complain about bad ideas coming out of Jefferson City. For the most part, you would be correct. However, on occasion, I do compliment good ideas when I see them. Take, for example, Missouri House Bill 380. HB 380 would completely eliminate the tax on pass-through entities and introduce a $100 million cap on economic development tax credits.

I have written a lot about the need to respond to Kansas’ tax cut. By eliminating the tax on pass-through entities, many Missouri businesses would be able to keep more of their money to invest in new projects and even lower prices for customers. In addition, it would not only make Missouri more attractive to businesses outside the state, it would also serve as an incentive for in-state businesses to remain here. HB 380 would partially mitigate any projected revenue shortfall by placing a cap on economic development tax credits. If the plan had been in place last year, the cap would have saved the state more than $300 million.

Even if there was not a proposed tax cut in HB 380, the proposed tax credit cap in the measure is, in and of itself, a good idea. Getting the government less involved in picking winners and losers through the tax code is a worthy goal. By substantially cutting down on the number of credits that will be issued, the government’s involvement in economic development is substantially diminished. Coupling a cap with an elimination of the tax on pass-through entities makes the bill even better. There is a lot to like in HB 380 and I hope Missouri experiences some kind of tax relief.

My colleague Patrick Ishmael and I just released a new paper on the topic of pass-through entities, “Passing Through Missouri: Left Behind On Taxes?” You can read the paper here.

Jay Nixon Makes The Wrong Call On Medicaid

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon calls an up-or-down vote on expansion of the state’s Medicaid program “the biggest decision facing our state right now.” And so it is.

Unfortunately, the governor is selling the idea that Missouri and other states should take all the help they can get from Uncle Sam. Nixon treats the offer of billions of dollars from the U.S. Treasury as “free money” — even though it is one more instance of expanding an entitlement today out of debt imposed upon our children and grandchildren tomorrow.

In his Jan. 28 State of the State address, Nixon spoke to the fear that Missouri would lose $5.7 billion in federal grants over the next three years if it does not step forward to claim the prize.

But that is hardly the worst thing that could happen — given widespread dissatisfaction with the rapid growth in spending that has already occurred in this program. We do not have to expand Medicaid. This would not put existing benefits at risk.

The far greater danger is that Missouri (and other states) will fail to stop their spendthrift uncle in Washington, D.C., from bankrupting the nation — and slamming the door on job and wealth creation for years to come.

It is time to reform Medicaid — not to expand it.

Even more than that, this is a time for the states to come to the aid of their country — in saying “no” to an overreaching federal government that is seemingly determined to spend not just to the absolute limit of its taxing power, but also to the absolute limit of its borrowing power.
Over the past four years, the federal debt has increased from $10.6 trillion to more than $16 trillion. Federal indebtedness now amounts to more than $50,000 for every man, woman, and child.
Anyone who does not think Medicaid is part of the problem should look at the numbers.

For more than a decade, Medicaid has been the fastest-growing part of state budgets across the nation. In Missouri, Medicaid expenditures increased from $3.4 billion in fiscal year 2000 to $8.2 billion in fiscal year 2012. Despite the increased outlays, which now amount to more than a third of the state’s total expenditures, it is increasingly difficult for patients to find doctors. And doctors say they have little incentive to stay in the program because of reduced reimbursement rates and administrative headaches.

Medicaid showcases the many problems that grow out of greater and greater reliance on government-mandated and government-controlled health care — in limiting competition and freedom of choice and undermining the bond between patient and doctor.

In his address to the legislature, Nixon glossed over such problems, suggesting that the Medicaid expansion (as a critical part of the Affordable Care Act) is a done deal — passed by Congress, signed by the president, and upheld by the Supreme Court.

“The question before us is a narrow one,” Nixon claimed. “Will we bring the tax dollars that Missourians send to Washington back home to strengthen our Medicaid system here in Missouri? Or will we let the tax dollars Missourians send to Washington be spent in other states instead?”
There are two substantial problems with this line of reasoning.

First, the Supreme Court did not endorse the law in its entirety. As originally written, the law would have required each of the states to support the planned expansion of Medicaid . . . or face the loss of all federal matching funds. The Supreme Court struck down that part of the law — calling it “a gun to the head.” The Court ruled that the states must be free to opt out of the Medicaid expansion program if they wish.

Second, the real issue is not tax dollars that are (in Nixon’s word) being sent to Washington from Missouri and other states. It is the use of borrowed money (much of it coming from China, Saudi Arabia, and other such countries) that will pass the bill for today’s higher (and heedlessly wasteful) levels of government spending to our children and grandchildren.

Even without holding a “gun to the head” of each of the states, the federal government continues to dangle a large carrot in front of their noses — offering to pay more than 90 percent of new Medicaid costs through 2022. That compares with the usual split between the federal government and the states of about 60-to-40 in Medicaid funding.

It will take real courage for lawmakers in Missouri and other states to turn aside the poisoned chalice. But that is exactly what they must do.

Andrew B. Wilson is a resident fellow and senior writer at the Show-Me Institute, which promotes free-market solutions for Missouri public policy issues.

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