Page 405 – Show-Me Institute

Still Movin’ On Out

Posted on February 17, 2015May 5, 2026 by Rik W. Hafer

In a recent analysis of Missouri’s migration patterns since 2004, Michael Rathbone and I found that Missouri’s net out-migration—more people moving out than in—has been especially pronounced since 2008. The most current information used in that study ended in 2013. Because some of the data have been updated, has there been any change over the past year in Missouri’s migration pattern?

Our earlier analysis used information provided by Atlas Van Lines and United Van Lines. These moving companies track outbound and inbound moves for all states. Calculating the ratio of outbound moves to total moves provides a rough gauge of whether more households are relocating into or out of a state.

Both companies recently published their findings for 2014. The table below reports the ratio of outbound to total moves for Missouri and its neighboring states. The evidence from Atlas Van Lines shows that more households moved out of Missouri (55.5 percent of total moves) than in. United Van Line’s 2014 National Movers Study also finds that outbound moves exceeded inbound moves.

Here are two aspects about these numbers. First, they prolong a trend that began several years ago: more households moving out of Missouri than moving in. Second, in 2014 Missouri’s percent of outbound moves exceeded that of most neighboring states. The Atlas report found that the percent of outbound moves was lower in six states relative to Missouri. Five states had relatively fewer outbound moves than Missouri, according to the United study.

“Relying on data sources as varied as moving companies to the Census Bureau and the IRS,” Rathbone and I noted, “our evidence reveals that, especially since 2007, more of Missouri’s residents have relocated out of the state than others have moved in.” Updating the moving company figures does not alter that conclusion.

	Outbound (%) in 2014
State	Atlas	United
Arkansas	52.4	51.7
Illinois	60.1	63.4
Iowa	54.6	52.5
Kansas	54.7	58.2
Kentucky	50.3	55.0
Missouri	55.5	53.1
Nebraska	57.8	46.2
Oklahoma	45.4	43.4
Tennessee	44.4	50.0

Balance Through Transparency – Part 3

Posted on February 16, 2015May 5, 2026 by John Wright

I previously wrote about the problems with overly adversarial government labor relations. This wasn’t to say that a cozy relationship between government and government unions is always a good thing either.

Another firefighter I spoke with, who wished to remain anonymous, seemed to think the situation in the Saint Louis region was much worse. He told me that at more than one fire protection district the board routinely asks shop stewards for permission to make personnel decisions. According to him, the union packs fire district boards and management positions with people who answer to the union, which, in effect, gives the union control over the management.

Undoubtedly, the union representing firefighters in Saint Louis County, IAFF Local 2665, has another perspective to contribute. It has not yet responded to any of my requests for comment, but I believe there are multiple sides to this story, and I look forward to hearing from them.

It can be tricky to find the right balance in government labor relations. On the one hand, industrial strife leaves citizens dependent on, and paying for, shoddy government services. On the other hand, too cozy a relationship between a government and a government union yields a “fox in the henhouse” situation, where taxpayers get fleeced by a private entity with exclusive control of a government entity. The trick is to find balance. And the best way to achieve balance is to open up the process to the public and let Brandeis’s policeman sort things out.

Port Strikes, Panama, and the Future of Missouri Freight

Posted on February 16, 2015May 5, 2026 by Joseph Miller

Since last July, freight companies and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) (which represents dockworkers from all 29 West Coast ports) have been in negotiations over a new contract. In the last week, negotiations have heated up, with threats of port lockouts and counter threats of strikes. Half of all inbound and outbound U.S. freight use the ports in question.

At the same time, a $5.3 billion expansion of the Panama Canal, long delayed, is nearing completion. New locks that can handle much larger ships are expected to open in early 2016. The expansion will also increase the number of ships that can traverse the canal, decreasing congestion at this critical bottleneck.

While these developments are taking place more than a thousand miles away from Missouri, they may have a large impact on the state’s freight system. Currently, about 97 percent of the $1.2 trillion of freight that flows through Missouri does so by road and rail. That includes goods shipped to and from the West Coast as part of international trade movements. Despite Missouri’s access to the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, only 1 percent of freight by value move by barge in the state, and most public port authorities see little river freight.

But that could change. With the widening of the Panama Canal it may become cheaper freight to move large container ships directly to and from the Gulf and Atlantic Coast rather than rely on West Coast ports and cross-continent truck or rail networks. Labor unrest on the West Coast is reportedly incentivizing international freight companies to diversify their freight networks.

The hope among many Missouri transportation planners is that these changes to the international freight network will improve the competitiveness of Missouri’s freight network, and especially its inland waterways, by lowering costs and increasing reliability. For example, grain from Missouri could be put on barges down to the Gulf Coast where it could be directly shipped to Asia. MoDOT and other government bodies are looking at possible investments to take advantage of increased traffic.

However, the optimism should be paired with prudence. Freight experts at Missouri’s annual transportation conference have cautioned that the state lies in an area of the country where it is unclear whether the Panama Canal’s expansion will have great impact. Exporting internationally may become cheaper, but Missouri’s principle markets are likely to remain in neighboring states. Currently, only $12 billion of Missouri’s outbound freight is headed for international markets.

In terms of investment, Missourians should also remember that barge travel is inexpensive in Missouri partially because shippers pay very little of the cost of maintaining the navigable rivers on which they rely. If the Panama Canal expansion truly makes barge freight more competitive, barge companies should be able to afford new port investments without state funding.

Balance Through Transparency – Part 2

Posted on February 14, 2015May 5, 2026 by John Wright

In writing about how increased transparency can help improve government labor relations, I thought it might be useful to illustrate two ways government labor relations can become problematic. The first situation is one where the relationship between a government union and government becomes toxic, making it hard for government employees to deliver public services.

David Richard, a former fire captain and union member in Saint Louis County, told me that somewhere along the line the collective bargaining process became “infected.”

“The union became radical,” David told me. David believes a firefighters union can serve a good purpose, but the situation in many districts has become too adversarial. “The district needs a dialogue, a common ground.” And with the infected relationship between management and the union, ordinary procedures, such as employee review, are compromised.

“I was torn between my duties as a captain and my duties as a good union member,” David said of the employee review process. As a captain, he had the duty to review employees, but as a union member, he had a duty to protect his fellow union members. As the union became more militant, it became increasingly difficult for him to play both roles.

What’s the big deal? People complain about their union being too radical or too soft all the time.

The difference here is that we’re talking about our government.

If a traditional private-sector union is too radical and labor relations suffer, then it’s only a private company that suffers. It’s bad for employees and owners of that company, but society as a whole can always buy Toyotas instead of Fords. If government labor relations suffer, then citizens serviced by and paying for that government entity are stuck with the consequences.

An Imminent Eminent Domain Case

Posted on February 13, 2015May 5, 2026 by Michael Rathbone

When most Saint Louisans think about eminent domain abuses, they tend to conjure up thoughts of Maplewood razing neighborhoods in order to build a Walmart or Clayton trying to seize land to hand over to Centene. But what of eminent domain in the case of government agencies? Can that justify taking families’ homes?

If you are a Saint Louis City alderman who wants to keep the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) from moving to Fenton or Mehlville or even possibly Scott Air Force Base, there is a good chance that you’d say yes. That’s why plans to use eminent domain to seize property as part of the plan to keep the NGA in Saint Louis are moving forward. Yet despite this “progress,” that doesn’t mean the aldermen are correct. For the people of North Saint Louis, the abuse of eminent domain is imminent.

Eminent domain has a legitimate purpose. Sometimes it is necessary to seize property to use for the public good, such as highways or sewers. Yet, there is no reason in this case to think that using eminent domain would serve as a public good. Unlike highways, which must go more-or-less in a straight line, the new NGA headquarters is flexible in how it is laid out and where it can locate. Even if the NGA moves to the county or to Scott Air Force Base, NGA employees living in the city are unlikely to move. Why violate somebody’s private property rights when it is not necessary?

The truth is that the city stands to lose millions in earnings taxes if the NGA moves out. It’s understandable, especially when budgets are tight, that the city would want to try anything to avoid losing even more revenue. However, people’s homes matter more than extra tax revenue. Being hard up for money doesn’t give the city a valid reason to take people’s homes.

Finding Balance Through Transparency

Posted on February 13, 2015May 5, 2026 by John Wright

One of the biggest issues in public policy today has to do with the collective bargaining agreements, or CBAs, that are negotiated between some government unions and the government entities that employ union labor. These agreements can have huge implications for our communities’ future budgets and, ultimately, our tax levels.

That’s why recent, troubling news out of Saint Louis County should concern anyone interested in good, effective, and financially secure government. I’ve spoken to a number of firefighters in Saint Louis County recently, and the stories I’m hearing are not good: self-dealing, intimidation, fire district board members using bulletproof vests in their meetings. Something has gone awry.

In response to this strife, some fire districts are trying something new. At Monarch Fire Protection District, instead of holding collective bargaining meetings behind closed doors, the board has decided to open up the process to the public, as Missouri’s Sunshine Law requires them to do with most other meetings. So far the results have been promising.

So why isn’t this already standard practice with government collective bargaining? After all, collective bargaining meetings are deliberative processes where public officials set public policy, including employee compensation, work rules, and grievance procedures.

Missouri Sunshine Law (a.k.a. Open Meetings and Records Law) provides that public government bodies may close meetings, records, and votes to the extent they relate to a negotiated contract until that contract is executed or all proposals are rejected. Hence, government bodies close collective bargaining sessions with government unions under the theory that collective bargaining is a contract negotiation.

Collective bargaining is a contract negotiation of sorts, but it is not the same as contracting with an outside firm. Collective bargaining is a negotiation between staff and management over internal operations. Because policy can be set in these bargaining sessions, exempting government collective bargaining from the Sunshine Law is a mistake, especially when the public is concerned about labor relations at a government entity upon which they depend.

U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Louis Brandeis famously wrote,

Publicity is justly commended as a remedy for social and industrial diseases. Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the most efficient policeman.

Expanding the scope of Missouri’s transparency laws to cover collective bargaining meetings and access to government records would be one good way to alleviate the labor relations problems we’re seeing in the public sector.

Show-Me Now! K.C.’s Streetcar Money Pit

Posted on February 13, 2015May 5, 2026 by Joseph Miller

Kansas City is building a streetcar. Policy Analyst Joseph Miller thinks that money would be better spent elsewhere.

School Visit Series: A Charter With a Community Impact

Posted on February 13, 2015May 5, 2026 by Brittany Wagner

In Missouri, educational choice often involves students leaving a community to attend a quality school, but it is the reverse for Académie Lafayette in Kansas City, Missouri. According to Académie board member and realtor Pam Anderson Gard, the popular French immersion school has helped to revitalize the community surrounding its Oak Campus.

Académie Lafayette is a charter school, which serves grades K-8. The school’s language immersion program differs from traditional second-language instruction in that students both communicate and learn in French from the very first day of kindergarten.

The Oak Campus building was previously a French magnet school called Ecole Longan, closed by Kansas City Public Schools (KCPS) in 2011. “There were several different groups interested in purchasing the [building], but the neighborhood supported Académie Lafayette because they wanted it to remain a school,” said Gard.

Development Director Sarah Guthrie added, “It was a more run-down neighborhood, and certainly now it’s being revived.”

Since the charter opened, developers have also moved into the neighborhood, including Kansas City Sustainable Development Partners, which purchased another closed building from KCPS. Still, Gard feels Académie Lafayette has had the largest impact, “If there are problems, somebody has to come in and fix them, and Académie Lafayette took care of this one.”

Wanting to maintain a high level of diversity among students, the charter draws in students from all socio-economic backgrounds. The map below shows the distribution of Académie Lafayette students across the city by family income category. The school reports that a few families have even moved from out of state in order to participate in the charter’s lottery. There’s no guarantee students will be admitted. In fact, out of the 200-plus students who apply only 60 are accepted each year. It’s clear that Académie Lafayette has a high demand.

Proposed legislation will make it easier for charters like Académie Lafayette to buy abandoned school buildings. Since abandoned buildings can cause a community further harm (increasing drug and gang activity, etc.), this legislation potentially could have a positive impact on urban neighborhoods.

Of Académie Lafayette’s experience buying an abandoned building, Gard said, “It was a closed school, and now it’s full of kids and laughter.”

The Star Responds to Show-Me Daily Post

Posted on February 12, 2015May 5, 2026 by Patrick Tuohey

We were gratified to learn that members of the Kansas City Star editorial board read our humble blog. In a Wednesday afternoon column, Yael Abouhalkah took on the matter of the costly Power & Light District to respond to our post the previous day on the same topic.

Abouhalkah starts off where our post on the matter leaves off, a 2006 quote from then-Mayor Kay Barnes about how they’ll be seen as “geniuses” for saddling the city with a $15 million annual debt. He then moves on to conclude that, well, that’s okay.

City officials took bold moves to finally try to eliminate a lot of blight and reinvest in a more vibrant downtown through the Power & Light District, hoping it would lead to even more reinvestment in the city’s central core, wooing residents and companies.

While the downtown area has seen an uptick in residents, the city at-large is floundering. Even the creative-class millennials that we hear so much about are coming to Kansas City in much lower numbers than our peer cities. Some even suggest the trend of young educated people moving to urban areas has peaked.

As for jobs, even Abouhalkah admitted on last week’s episode of Ruckus that there hasn’t been job creation downtown. Tax revenue from restaurants and hotels has not kept pace with inflation, and the number of liquor licenses and bartender permits has decreased over the past several years. So much for a successful entertainment district. But hey, they respond, we built pretty buildings. (And built them near the Star‘s headquarters!)

As for a solution, Abouhalkah suggests more of the same:

Looking forward, I hope the city has learned its lesson and will help build a convention hotel with the lowest possible use of taxpayer subsidies.

Sadly, such sentiment is nothing more than the triumph of hope over experience. Time and again we read of awful city-negotiated deals like Power & Light, Citadel, and Burns & McDonnell while the real city core is left to fend for itself. We can’t wait another nine years for columnists to regret their current support of the latest taxpayer-subsidized scheme.

The mayor and city council seem to be waging a border war of their own, but instead of fighting neighboring states or cities, they’ve pitched downtown versus the rest of the city in an economic civil war.

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