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The Utopian Apocalypse: Silicon Valley Freaks Out over Automation

Posted on August 21, 2017January 13, 2026 by Andrew B. Wilson

With Labor Day just around the corner, now is a good time to discuss (and, more than that, to take up the cudgels against) a bad idea popularized by leading figures in Silicon Valley.

It’s a two-part idea – beginning with the proposition that the robots are coming and they are about to change all of our lives – mostly for the better. Think of having a machine that can respond to the command, “Hey, Robot, build me a house.” The upside will be greater ease and prosperity; the only downside will be massive unemployment. Says Tesla CEO Elon Musk, “There will be fewer and fewer jobs that robots can’t do better.”

The 19th-century Luddites had the same fear of automation. During the Industrial Revolution, with mechanization replacing manual labor on an unprecedented scale, their proposed solution was to smash the new machines that were taking jobs away from some people (even as they were creating new jobs for many more people).

The 21st-century Luddites – Musk, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, and other big names in Silicon Valley – have a different solution. Rather than smash their own machines, they are promoting a “universal basic income” (UBI, for short) to take care of people unable to find work because of the job-destroying robots.

A UBI of, say, a couple thousand dollars a month for unemployed yet able-bodied adults would create a whole new “safe space” – freeing millions of people from the nasty necessity of having to go out and find work in order to enjoy life unencumbered by financial difficulty.

“We should have a society that measures progress not just by economic metrics like GDP, but how many of us have a role that we find meaningful,” said Zuckerberg in a recent speech at Harvard. “We should explore ideas like universal basic income to give everyone a cushion to try new things.”

Musk argues that unemployment and economic output will both rise as a result of greater automation, leaving society with “no choice but to distribute a portion of the money to everyone equally.”

Let’s try to talk a little sense here. Who is to pay the vast sum of money needed to create a new leisure class of non-workers if not the people who continue to work? And in the long history of automation, has there ever been a time when a rapid expansion in unemployment (as happened in the Great Depression) was accompanied by a still more rapid expansion in GDP. The answer is never.

More importantly, automation creates more employment than it destroys. During the Industrial Revolution, for instance, automation made weavers who worked on ancient looms obsolete. But the number of people working in textiles exploded. That is because capital investment in labor-saving devices raised productivity, lowered prices, improved quality, and left more money in people’s pockets to spend on things besides the bare necessities.

The Silicon Valley superstars promoting a UBI display an incomplete understanding of how free-market capitalism works. It depends upon human motivation no less than technological innovation. Under free-market capitalism, people compete with one another to satisfy the needs of others. Rather than living off the sweat from the brows of other people, they have the satisfaction that comes from earning their own way and living useful, purposeful lives.

On this Labor Day, let us celebrate the enduring value of work. There may be other motivations for a basic income, but a fear of robots destroying all the jobs absolutely shouldn’t be one of them.

Private Schools Aren’t What You Think They Are

Posted on August 17, 2017January 13, 2026 by Michael Q. McShane

Summer fading into fall and children heading back to school . . . it can mean only one thing: Football is about to come back. In addition to my annual tradition of watching Rudy before the first Notre Dame game of the year, I usually find myself trawling through YouTube looking for funny football bloopers and press conference awkwardness.

There are some great NFL press conference moments. Jim Mora’s incredulous “Playoffs? Playoffs? I hope we can just win a game.” Herman Edwards’ punctuated “You play. To win. The game.” Mike Ditka’s forlorn “If I was fired, I’d quit right now.”

But perhaps the most emotional press conference moment came from Arizona Cardinal’s coach Dennis Green, who, after losing a game to the Chicago Bears, angrily pounded the press conference podium and shouted “They are who we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!”

I was reminded of this exhortation last week when NCES released the results of the 2015–16 Private School Universe Survey, an exhaustive analysis of the landscape of private schooling across America. I spend a lot of time in Missouri and across the country talking about private school choice programs, and hearing people’s opinions about private schools and their potential as options for children. Based on people’s perceptions, I’d like to invert Dennis Green’s shouts and say that private schools aren’t what you think they are.

When they hear the words “private schools,” many people think about toney suburban campuses speckled with lacrosse fields and tennis courts. Others think about single-sex Catholic schools run by the Christian Brothers or Sisters of St. Joseph.

Neither of these images is fully representative of the diverse set of private schools in our nation today. So what do we know about private schooling in America today?

The 34,576 private elementary and secondary schools are, on average, quite small. The average enrollment was only 142 students across all schools, 100 students in elementary schools and 263 students in high school. Forty-six percent of private schools enrolled fewer than 50 students.

Single-sex schools are extremely rare. Only 4 percent of private schools in America were single-sex, evenly split between 2 percent all girls and 2 percent all boys.

Catholic schools only make up 20.3 percent of all private schools, though it should be noted that they enroll 38.8 percent of all students. A full 32.7 percent of private schools are nonreligious.

Perhaps surprisingly (though not as surprising if you read this great Brookings Institution paper on the geography of school options across the country), 30.2 percent of private schools were located in rural areas or in small towns.

As to racial demographics, private schools do differ from traditional public schools in meaningful ways. While public schools are roughly 50% white, 16% Black, 25% Hispanic, and 9% all other races, private schools are 69% white, 9% Black, 10% Hispanic, and 12% all other races.

One last data point worth mentioning; private school enrollment is on a serious decline. In just 15 years, it has dropped from 6.3 million children (in 2001–12) to just 4.9 million (in 2015–16).

I’d offer three short reflections.

1.It’s time we update our understanding of what private schools looks like. There is an incredible amount of variation within private schools. On average, they are small, more likely to be religious, and are probably located within a city or suburb. But that’s about all we can say. If you have a mental picture of what a private school looks like and assume they all look like that, you’re probably guessing wrong.

2.School choice risks being too little, too late. As I have argued for years, private schools, and particularly the urban Catholic schools that have a proud tradition of serving low-income and minority students, are closing by the hundreds. School choice is a way to stanch the bleeding—but without a greater sense of urgency, there will be no schools left for children to choose. We cannot be surprised to see private schools serving fewer and fewer minority children when all of the schools that have served them in the past are closing.

3.Private schools should do a better job of reaching out to minority communities. If private schools want to grow, reaching out to growing populations is the way to make it happen. I’m heartened by efforts like Notre Dame’s Task Force on the Participation of Latino Children and Families in Catholic Schools, but we need many more organizations working to connect minority children to educational opportunities in private schools. School choice is also an indispensable part of this effort, as it is perhaps the only tool that can help bridge the gap between what people can afford and where they can go to school.

Private schools are not a monolith. They are a part of the diverse landscape of education in America, and their decline should trouble all of us.

Running the Numbers on the KC Streetcar

Posted on August 16, 2017January 13, 2026 by Patrick Ishmael

Last Tuesday, Kansas Citians voted to effectively block future growth of the city’s streetcar unless and until city leaders can make the case to the entire city that expansion is needed. Longtime readers will remember that, importantly, the streetcar itself was given life in 2012 thanks to 460 voters in a gerrymandered district who mailed in ballots to help establish the line. This time, over 30,000 voters had their voices heard, and the verdict was against expansion.

What’s really fascinating, though, is that while the vote that created the district is rarely, if ever, criticized by streetcar supporters for the weakness of its mandate, many of those same supporters had already dismissed the larger and more recent vote just hours after the counts were completed. Local blogger Kevin Collison gave some voice to the frustrations of streetcar backers, tweeting that “#KC should do whatever it takes to challenge this anti-streetcar petition, pivotal moment for future of urban core.” He may be referring to the Council’s option to override the public vote’s results. Other supporters, like Jon Stephens of T-Bones handout fame, bemoaned turnout as a symptom of a broken petition system, even though the streetcar owes its existence to the calculatedly miniscule turnout in an election brought about . . . by a petition!

Streetcar supporters say they want Kansas City “left alone” by the state and others so that locals can control the city’s fate. But if that’s the case, I have a few questions for them:

Why were 460 votes enough to launch the streetcar project?
Why weren’t 30,000 votes enough to circumscribe it?
Why should the 13 votes of the Kansas City Council be enough to override those 30,000?

Streetcar supporters would do well for themselves to stop playing games with the public as they pursue this project.

Teachers Are Great, and the Pay Isn’t Bad!

Posted on August 16, 2017January 13, 2026 by James V. Shuls

Today, I was greeted on Facebook with countless pictures of children smiling as they headed to their first day of the school year. My first thought was, “Uh-oh—my kids overslept!” Then I remembered they don’t start until tomorrow. As our kids head back to school, they will be welcomed by caring professionals who are dedicated to helping them grow—teachers.

Unfortunately, there is a terrible myth going around about teachers. This myth is pervasive and has been around for decades. It is the belief that teachers are badly underpaid.

Jay Greene, Distinguished Professor of Education Policy at the University of Arkansas, wrote about it in his influential 2005 book, “Education Myths: What Special-Interest Groups Want You to Believe about Our Schools and Why It Isn’t So.” Greene argued that when we compare a teacher’s hourly rate to those of other professionals, the pay is quite comparable. He also noted that we must consider other employment benefits, such as health care and retirement, which are typically more generous in education than the private sector.

Despite these arguments, the myth of grossly underpaid teachers has persisted. Recently, an Education Next poll asked respondents if they thought teacher pay should increase, decrease, or stay the same. Overwhelmingly, respondents said we should “increase” (47%) or “greatly increase” (14%) teacher pay. That in and of itself isn’t telling; if it were feasible, most of us would happily pay teachers more. The telling part is what happens when survey participants are given actual teacher salaries. When people are told how much teachers are paid, support for pay raises drops.

**Results from 2017 Education Next Program on Education Policy and Governance Survey**
	Without Information about Actual Salaries	With Information about Actual Salaries
Greatly increase	14%	6%
Increase	47%	30%
Stay about the same	34%	56%
Decrease	4%	6%
Greatly decrease	1%	1%

Most people greatly underestimate how much teaches actually paid. In the survey, the average guess for the national average teacher salary was $40,587. That is $17,672 less than the actual average of $58,258. It is also less than the average here in Missouri, where the average total teacher salary in 2016 was $49,060. In Saint Louis City and County, the average climbs to $58,701 (author calculations).

About two years ago I had to battle this teacher pay myth in my own home. My son came home from school saying teachers didn’t make very much money, at least that’s what his teacher said. I said, “I bet she makes more than me.” So, we looked it up (both of our salaries are public information). As it turns out, his teacher made several thousand more than I do.

The problem with the teacher pay myth is that it undermines a very noble and valuable profession. As Harvard education professor, Marty West suggests, “To the extent that the public has a falsely low impression of [how] much teachers earn, that only makes it harder for us to attract talented individuals into the teaching profession.”

If we keep perpetuating the notion that teaching is a thankless job and teachers are underpaid, we shouldn’t be surprised when we have teacher shortages. Instead, let’s be honest—teaching is a great profession and the pay isn’t bad!

Jazz, Race, and Crime in Kansas City

Posted on August 16, 2017January 13, 2026 by Patrick Tuohey

The editorial board of The Kansas City Star recently published a column wondering why more people do not attend events at 18th and Vine, or more specifically, why they did not go to Kansas City’s Jazz and Heritage Festival over Memorial Day weekend. It’s a valid question if only because city leaders keep pouring tens of millions of taxpayer dollars into the effort to revive the Jazz District.

We’ve written about this before. The Star is correct that jazz serves only a niche audience, but they argue,

Still, other jazz festivals draw audiences many times larger. The New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival this year drew 425,000 for the seven-day event, the Xerox Rochester International Jazz Festival attracted 205,000.

Are those fair comparisons? The 2017 New Orleans Jazz & Heritage festival hosted such non-jazz performers as Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, Kings of Leon, Usher, and Snoop Dogg. The Rochester International Jazz Festival featured Cheryl Crow—not a jazz artist. And as the Star notes, these festivals took place over more days than in Kansas City.

The Star then speculated whether the cause for such lackluster attendance here in Kansas City was fear of crime or racism. Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, who led the effort to spend public money on 18th and Vine in the 1990s when he served as mayor, offered that New Orleans and Memphis seem to have gotten past this, but not Kansas City. In order for this claim to be true, one needs to believe that the Kansas City region contains tens of thousands of jazz fans who are staying home simply because of the festival’s venue. Does anyone believe that? It seems more likely that event supporters are merely pointing the finger at others for their own failures.

Memphis’ Beale Street is a great success largely, we suspect, because it is privately run. Back in the late 1990s, Beale Street boosters sought private investment at the same time Cleaver was insisting on public financing for 18th and Vine. As to which was the wiser approach, two decades later we know the answer: Cleaver was wrong. New Orleans has a long list of private corporate sponsors; Rochester does too. Kansas City’s sponsors appear to include only “National Endowment for the Arts, the City of Kansas City, and Hall Family Foundation.”

Private administration and sponsorship is a powerful incentive for success and probably accounts for why these festivals include lots of performances by non-jazz artists. That is the lesson Kansas City must learn; government jazz isn’t working. To spend public money and then blame the public for not attending will not make anything better.

New Missouri Standardized Test Scores Don’t Tell Us a Lot

Posted on August 15, 2017January 13, 2026 by Michael Q. McShane

Are Missouri students learning more or less? Are schools improving? Are teachers adapting to the state’s new standards? Well, the state’s MAP test results from the 2016–17 school year are out and they answer none of these questions.

Before I explain why, let’s look at the top-line results. In English Language Arts, proficiency rates for all grades hovered at around 60 percent. They ranged from 59.2 percent (in 7th grade) to 64.2 percent (in 4th grade). In Math, the numbers are lower, with the highest scores recorded for 4th graders (at 53.9 percent) and the lowest from 8th graders (at 30.5 percent). These numbers represent a small uptick from last year.

For students in the two grades for which we have science scores, scores for both have regressed slightly over the past three years, with 47.5 percent of 5th grades in 2015 scoring proficient and only 45.7 percent scoring the same in 2017. Meanwhile, 49.0 percent of 8th graders in 2017 scored proficient, down from 49.4 percent in 2015.

So what can we make of these numbers? In all honesty, not much. The eye-poppingly low 8th grade math numbers are most likely explained by the fact that 7th and 8th graders who take the Algebra I end-of-course exam (a higher-level exam typically taken by high-schoolers) are not counted in that data. They would probably help bring those proficiency rates up.

As to the rest, Missouri has been churning through new standards and new assessments over the last several years, which prevents us from knowing what explains any changes. Are the tests easier or harder? Is the actual teaching going on in the classroom getting better, or simply better aligned to the standards? Are students learning more? We cannot disentangle it.

What’s more, we probably won’t be able to understand these forces for some time. Missouri is rolling out yet another new test next year, making comparison to this year’s test results that much more difficult. Frankly, it is going to take several years of solid data from the new tests aligned to the new standards for us to determine whether or not schools are getting better or worse.

Almost 47th

Posted on August 14, 2017January 13, 2026 by Joseph Haslag

Missouri’s economy has been in the slow lane for decades. Unfortunately, unless things change, Missourians will likely be left behind by their peers in states with relatively booming economies.

Over the years, we have marked the progress (or lack thereof) that Missouri has made by reporting new data on gross domestic product (GDP) released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). If you pick out a single year’s data, Missouri seems to do okay. From 2015 to 2016, for instance, real GDP in Missouri increased at a 1.15 percent rate, ranking 31st out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Washington recorded the fastest growth rate, at 3.7 percent. It was a bad year for states that rely on natural resources: Louisiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Alaska, and North Dakota all reported declines in real GDP from 2015 to 2016. So, it looks like the recent decline in oil and coal prices helped push Missouri up into the middle of the pack. For reference, in the United States as a whole, reported real GDP increased at a 1.54 percent rate in 2016—much faster than in Missouri.

But year-over-year data doesn’t reveal larger, more important economic trends; any given year can be dominated by business cycle fluctuations. Growth is focused on long-term trends. When you look at the entire 1997–2016 period, the picture is quite different from 2015. Little wiggles in the year-over-year data get smoothed out and show the economic fundamentals operating within a state. Over the full two-decade period, we see that Missouri’s growth has been paltry.

During this period, Missouri has grown at half the pace of the United States as a whole (1.024% compared to 2.05%). Out of all 50 states and the District of Columbia, Missouri ranks 48th in economic growth; we trailed Mississippi by 0.001%—we were almost 47th. For an idea of the impact of Missouri’s poor performance, imagine you and a friend had started at the same job in 1997, each making $50,000 a year. If your friend’s salary grew at the rate of the country as a whole, and yours grew at Missouri’s rate, the friend would have made about $72,800 in 2016 while you’d have made roughly $60,400!

In a recent essay, Joe Haslag and Michael Austin identified some policies that could help explain why Missouri took a nosedive after 1997. There was the corporate income tax rate hike in 1993. There was a shift of spending from education and infrastructure to social services. There was the sharp increase in the state’s tax credit programs. And, though more difficult to measure, there was the regulatory burden that seems only to have increased over time. (Do you remember a time when the state government eliminated a regulation?)

The bottom line is that state government needs to take a thoughtful approach to policy if it is to boost economic growth. Lower tax rates, for example, result in higher returns on capital and labor. The state should look for high returns on its own investments as well, just like a private citizen or business would. Common-sense adjustments to emphasize education and infrastructure over policies that transfer wealth from one group of citizens or businesses to another are needed unless Missouri’s policymakers are satisfied with 47th place.

Fining Businesses for Convenience?

Posted on August 10, 2017January 13, 2026 by Graham Renz

It was just this April that Missouri finally made its vehicle-for-hire regulations hospitable to transportation network companies (TNC) like Uber and Lyft. Still, some are holding onto the glorious days of regulation past. Why are Lambert International Airport and Saint Louis City officials trying to impose additional fees and regulations on TNCs again?

The city and the commission that oversees the airport have endorsed a plan to impose $3 pick-up and drop-off fees on TNCs serving the airport. That means every time a passenger is either picked up or dropped off at the airport by drivers for companies like Uber or Lyft, they’ll pay an additional $3 on top of their regular fare. There are two apparent motivations for the fees: (1) the airport wants to collect as much revenue as possible; and (2) taxis pay a $4 pick-up fee at the airport, and so regulators want to “level the playing field” between taxis and the more popular TNCs. There are also two fundamental problems with the proposal.

For one, taxis pay a special pick-up fee partially because they’re guaranteed fares at the airport. They queue at a designated area where, after waiting their turn, they get a fare. But this designated area wasn’t free to build, and TNC drivers cannot que there for guaranteed fares. TNC drivers respond to passenger requests in real time, and so must find fares “on their own.” Moreover, TNCs impose no special costs on airports like taxis do in terms of a designated waiting area or congestion. So if the TNC business model doesn’t necessitate these extra costs, why should TNCs or their passengers pay for them? Should TNCs be punished for being efficient? The answer may irk you as much as it does me: because of the “convenience of being allowed to offer curbside pickup.”

Secondly, it is not the government’s job to pick winners and losers. By protecting some market participants at the expense of others, policymakers hurt ordinary consumers—the overwhelming majority of society—in two ways. In the present case, consumers must first pay artificially higher prices for a service they demand. Second, economic progress is slowed by propping up failing businesses. Some city officials say that allowing TNCs to operate at the airport could hurt taxis’ business. They’re exactly right. Ford’s Model T hurt the carriage industry, and the advent of electric refrigerators hurt the ice industry—but society as a whole grew richer. The market destroys some jobs as others are created. Imposing fees on TNCs will not “level the playing field”; it will simply protect government-favored businesses from the pressures of the market (i.e., the preferences of consumers).

If policymakers truly want to level the playing field, they should eliminate fees, regulations, and other perks that help some at the expense of others—for both TNCs and taxis. Deregulation has already proved itself effective in the vehicle-for-hire industry. I hope officials keep this in mind going forward.

Essay: Is Missouri’s Teacher Pension System Unfair

Posted on August 9, 2017January 13, 2026 by James V. Shuls

Teachers who participate in Missouri’s Public School Retirement System (PSRS) throughout a lengthy career will end up with fairly generous retirement benefits. And while it’s good to know that long service at a demanding job is rewarded, we need to remember that not everyone who embarks on a teaching career will stay at the job for decades. For teachers who leave the profession after 5 or even 15 years, it’s worth asking how the benefits they receive match up with the amount they contribute to the system during their time on the job.

Other questions addressed in James Shuls’ new essay are related to the formula that the PSRS uses to determine retirement benefits, using the average salary earned over the last 3 years of service in the calculation. What affect does this approach have on teachers whose salary is relatively flat over time compared to those who get big pay increases at the end of their careers? Does the retirement system widen the compensation gap between teachers working in wealthy districts and those working in poorer areas?

The common denominator in all of these questions is fairness: How many (and which) teachers are receiving benefits that are proportional to the amount they contribute to the system over the years? To learn some possible answers, click on the link below to read the essay.

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