Ameren to Shut Down Rush Island

Posted on by Avery Frank

The coal-powered Rush Island Energy Center in Jefferson County will be shut down on October 15. The 1,178-megawatt energy center has been operating since 1976 and can power nearly one million homes. Rush Island was originally slated to operate through at least 2039, but the plant was found to be in violation of the Clean Air Act by a federal court more than a decade ago. Ameren was given the choice of installing pollution control mechanisms (scrubbers) or shutting the plant down, and decided to close Rush Island.

Rush Island is not the first coal plant to be shuttered, and it will not be the last. At the end of 2022, the 827-megawatt Meramec Power Plant was shut down, and according to Ameren, it plans to phase coal out completely by 2045.

Below is a summary of Ameren’s 2023 Integrated Resource Plan:

Note: “Other Zero Carbon” is expected to include a combination of renewables, energy storage, nuclear energy, and new technologies.

The continued shuttering of reliable coal plants presents concerns for energy reliability and affordability.

Is there reason to be concerned with affordability?

North Carolina is another state on the path of shutting down all coal plants and inserting renewables largely in their place. In response to these state plans, the John Locke Foundation and Center of the American Experiment released an in-depth analysis of the state’s proposed paths forward. The analysis finds that North Carolina’s proposed plan would cost more than a more nuclear-focused one. This is largely attributed to the “build and rebuild” treadmill that wind and solar assets need due to their short lifespan (roughly 20 years), whereas nuclear plans have a lifespan of 80 years (and maybe more).

Utilities, like Ameren, are allowed to charge enough for electricity to cover the cost of providing the service to everyone in their territory, plus a government-approved profit, often set at 5–-10 percent, on their capital investments. As long as the expenses are approved by the regulator in their state, utilities make a profit on every dollar they spend on new builds such as wind turbines, solar panels, natural gas plants, or even renovating corporate offices. The more money utilities spend, the more money they make.

A Missouri-specific study of Ameren’s energy plans could be beneficial to future policy research. Nevertheless, there is some reason to be skeptical of the affordability of such a massive energy transition and continued research will be needed as technology changes.

What concerns are there with reliability?

Some sources of energy are more reliable than others, and there are numerous ways to measure this: accredited capacity, unforced capacity (UCAP), or capacity value. All three measure the general reliability value to the grid. The figure below displays capacity values for the two main regional energy organizations in Missouri—Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and Southwest Power Pool (SPP):

Solar and wind, which are projected to replace much of the energy that retiring coal plants have produced, are intermittent and do not provide consistent streams of electricity, nor are they available at all times of day (although battery storage is improving). As shown in the table above, MISO rates the reliability of solar and wind far lower than coal and other replacement options. Relying so heavily on them may be dangerous.

There is also the task of building out a vast amount of advanced transmission infrastructure. The New York Times reports: “Already, a lack of transmission capacity means that thousands of proposed wind and solar projects are facing multiyear delays and rising costs to connect to the grid.” We should not bank on the ability to break this trend.

Will Ameren be able to replace 66% of its current generation while also meeting the needs of rapidly rising electricity demand? There is reason for concern. In my next post, I will discuss one policy that could help maintain and strengthen the reliability of our grid.

*Note: This post was updated on October 23 to more accurately reflect the circumstances of Rush Island’s closure.

The ESA Experience with Jenny Clark

Posted on by Susan Pendergrass

Susan Pendergrass speaks with Jenny Clark, Founder & CEO of Love Your School, about the experience of navigating Arizona’s Education Savings Account (ESA) Program from a parent’s perspective.

Jenny shares her personal journey as a mother of five in Arizona and how her family has utilized a variety of schooling options to fit each child’s unique needs. She explains the flexibility ESA programs offer, the challenges parents face in accessing and managing the funds, how it empowers families to take control of their children’s education, the growing popularity of school choice in Arizona, and more.

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Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

Be Skeptical of Claims St. Louis is Running A Surplus

Posted on by Patrick Tuohey

KMOV ran a piece the other day reporting that the St. Louis comptroller claims the city has a $42.2 million surplus.

I’m skeptical, and you should be too.

This is a claim that cities and states like because it makes their leaders look financially responsible. But it’s often just a result of bookkeeping sleight of hand. Governor Mike Parson made the same claim in January, and it wasn’t true then, either.

The accounting trick consists of merely looking at the cash you have on hand and not considering your long term-debts. Truth in Accounting (TIA), the indefatigable men and women who pore through annual reports, issued its State of the Cities report in February 2024. St. Louis ranked 64th in financial health out of the top 75 cities examined. The authors wrote:

St. Louis’ financial condition appeared to improve due in part to increased tax collections and federal COVID relief funds. Despite the good news, it still had a Taxpayer Burden™ of $11,100, earning it a “D” grade from Truth in Accounting. But the improvement is deceiving, because the city used outdated pension data.

On pages 150 and 151 of the report, available online here, TIA lists St. Louis’s assets and liabilities. The report must use 2022 data because St. Louis is not a stickler about releasing its financial data in a timely manner. Despite being in the red, St. Louis’s cash-basis accounting allows it to consider the money it has on hand without considering its long-term debts. It’s akin to getting a cash advance on your credit card and pretending you’re richer as a result.

If the comptroller wants to make such claims, she should release a complete and to-date copy of the city’s books. Until then, I am going to assume that if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

The good news is that we here at the Show-Me Institute, and the fine folks at Truth In Accounting, are dedicated to making sure people understand the truth about city and state finances.

Court Fee Increase Would Negatively Impact St. Louis County

Posted on by David Stokes

A version of the following commentary appeared in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Among the many things that Missourians will vote on in November is Amendment 6, which if passed would reinstitute a fee on court filings in Missouri to fund a larger pension for sheriffs and prosecutors in Missouri. (The fee was previously $3 before it was overturned by Missouri courts.) There are many troubling aspects of Amendment 6 that I hope Missourians consider before they vote, because the proposed amendment would have effects that go beyond the understandable desire to support law enforcement.

Locally, this amendment is especially bad public policy for St. Louis County residents. St. Louis County has by far the largest number of court filings due to its status as the largest county by population in Missouri and the presence of CT Corporation Systems in Clayton, which is the largest registered agent company in Missouri. What’s more, the St. Louis County sheriff is not a law enforcement agent and is therefore the only sheriff in Missouri who does not participate in the Missouri Sheriff’s Retirement System in the first place. So, to be clear, St. Louis County residents would pay the largest amount of fees into the fund—probably several hundred thousand dollars a year—while at the same time receiving the least benefit of any county. Coincidence? Perhaps. Fair? Definitely not.

Every person in St. Louis County who seeks redress in court, who files for a domestic order of protection, who has to pay a traffic fine, or is in court for any other reason, would have to pay this reinstituted fee to increase the pensions of primarily rural sheriffs and prosecutors. (The St. Louis County prosecutor might be included in this plan, so that’s one person in a million, for a position that is already well-compensated with a generous pension.)

The ballot language for Amendment 6, as is so often the case, is highly misleading. A typical voter will read the language proposing to “levy costs and fees to support salaries and benefits for current and former sheriffs, prosecuting attorneys . . .” and understand that to include the many dedicated deputy sheriffs and assistant prosecutors around the state. It doesn’t. This new fee will only benefit the elected sheriff and prosecutor in each county (and not even the sheriff in St. Louis County). That’s two people per county. Deputy sheriffs and assistant prosecutors have their pensions funded separately and are not affected by this proposal.

As if the misleading language and targeting of one county wasn’t enough to object to, the fact is that funding pensions by court fees is a bad policy. That is why previous attempts to fund a sheriff’s pension in this manner were thrown out as unconstitutional by the Missouri Supreme Court. Imposing court fees that make it harder to seek justice in court, or harder to pay fines ordered by court—especially when those fees financially benefit the law enforcement officials who impose some of them—creates a perverse incentive. Funding for the salaries and benefits of sheriffs and prosecutors should come from general local taxation, and there should be no financial incentive for increased fines, arrests, and so on. But instead of trying change their proposals to address these constitutional objections by judges and others, supporters of Amendment 6 are attempting to do an end-run around the law by changing the constitution. Supporting law enforcement by going around the law is an ironic way to accomplish their goals.

Furthermore, any increase in the retirement benefits of elected sheriffs and prosecutors should be accomplished by an expansion of defined-contribution plans available to them rather than an increase in their defined-benefit pensions. Expanding the opportunities for these well-compensated elected officials to participate in 457 retirement plans [which are like 401(k) accounts but for public employees] or similar alternatives is a better way to allow them to save for retirement without further burdening taxpayers.

Missouri sheriffs and prosecutors deserve our support, but Amendment 6 is not the way to show it. There are several good reasons for all Missourians to reconsider their typical support for law enforcement in this case, and for the people of St. Louis County, this choice should be easier than rooting against Stan Kroenke’s Rams in the Super Bowl.

High Hopes for a New Committee at the St. Louis Board of Aldermen

Posted on by David Stokes

On Wednesday, October 9, a new committee of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen is holding its first hearing. The Special Committee on Special Taxing Districts was formed to look into how the city can provide better oversight of the many community improvement districts (CIDs), transportation development districts (TDDs), and other such entities in the city.

CIDs, TDDs, and other districts undoubtedly need better public oversight. There also needs to simply be fewer of them, oversight or not. Hopefully the second part will be as important as the first part for the committee. An audit of CIDs by the Kansas City auditor in 2021 detailed the many issues with them in Kansas City, and a similar report from this committee would be beneficial.

I will be at this first committee meeting to enter into the record the  2019 report on special taxing districts published by the Show-Me Institute. It is great that the city has formed this committee, and hopefully both better oversight and reduced usage of special taxing districts will be the result.

(As a child of the 80’s, the hardest part of writing this blog post about a special committee studying special taxing districts was avoiding making a bunch of church lady references.)

Should Missouri Consider a 3rd-Grade Retention Policy?

Posted on by Avery Frank

Do you think students should get promoted to the next grade if they do not understand grade-level material?

There are two key factors to consider when answering this question: academic promotion and social promotion.

  • Academic promotion is straightforward—as students gain an understanding of the material, they advance to the next level and build on what they learned in the grade before.
  • Social promotion is based on age and allows students to stay with their friends and peers throughout their school experience.

Social promotion largely wins the day in schools. On the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 40 percent of Missouri 4th graders scored below basic on the 4th-grade reading assessment in 2022. Additionally, 15.1 percent of the same 4th graders scored below basic on the Missouri Assessment Program (MAP).

However, recently, some states have put more emphasis on academic promotion.

Some States Are Focusing More on Academic Promotion

In states such as Mississippi, Tennessee, and Florida, 3rd grade students can be prevented from advancing to 4th grade if they do not meet reading requirements. This is typically referred to as a “third-grade retention policy.”

All three states have seen significant gains in reading achievement. Mississippi’s commitment to mandatory phonics instruction and 3rd-grade retention has contributed to such a large boost in reading scores, it has been referred by many as the “Mississippi Miracle.”

On the NAEP, Mississippi’s scores increased by almost 10 percentage points between 2013 and 2022. Missouri’s decreased by 6 percentage points over that time period.

Mississippi also implemented targeted reading instruction based on evidence-based reading. It is hard to disconnect 3rd-grade retention from intentional instruction.

Considerations for Weighing a 3rd-Grade Retention Policy

After the pandemic, reading scores in Missouri not only initially nosedived, but they sadly continued to decrease and remained low. Missouri may need to consider new strategies to help our students in need.

However, social promotion is not unimportant. For students who are trying hard and get left behind, this can be a very tough social situation. Having friends go on to the next grade means the student left behind has less interaction with friends—different classes, different sports teams, different lunch schedules, and more.

Additionally, kids being older than their peers can create awkward social situations and increase bullying.

Mississippi’s policy attempts to balance different priorities when considering retention. It has the :

  • Limited English proficient students who had less than 2 years of instruction in an English Language Learner program.
  • Students with disabilities whose Individualized Education Program (IEP) indicates that participation in statewide assessment programs is not appropriate.
  • Students with disabilities who demonstrate a reading deficiency but whose IEP has provided them with intensive reading remediation for more than two years.
  • Students with disabilities who demonstrate a reading deficiency but were previously retained in a K-3 grade.
  • Students who meet an acceptable level of reading proficiency on an alternative standardized assessment approved by the Mississippi State Board of Education.
  • Students who demonstrate a reading deficiency despite having received two or more years of intensive reading intervention and have been retained in a K-3 grade for two years without meeting exceptional education criteria.

Third-grade retention has a demonstrated track record of success in other states, and it should be given consideration as Missouri students continue to struggle in reading.

 

 

POSTPONED: Charles C. W. Cooke on October 9

Posted on by Show-Me Institute Staff

The event featuring Charles C. W. Cooke, scheduled for Wednesday, October 9, has been postponed. Due to travel complications related to Hurricane Milton, we are unable to proceed with the event as planned.

We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. We are working on scheduling a new date for the event and updates will be posted here. Thank you for your understanding.

Missouri Shows that More Government Doesn’t Equal More Housing

Posted on by Patrick Tuohey

Housing is an important issue. Many people, myself included, believe it is a cornerstone issue for so much of what ails America. If we can solve housing, many other solutions would be within our grasp. Yet so many policy proposals seek only to address the secondary effects of housing rather than the core problem itself.

The fundamental issue here is supply and demand. There is a tight housing market in many places in the country where supply is already constrained—though that is generally not the case in Kansas City or St. Louis. Housing policies that focus on boosting demand rather than increasing supply tend to backfire. The Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968 and the Clinton administration’s National Homeownership Strategy both drove temporary housing booms followed by market crashes. These policies didn’t solve affordability; they exacerbated it.

The same flawed logic has shaped housing markets in Kansas City and St. Louis, where misguided interventions have made housing less affordable. Kansas City’s adoption of the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) stifled new home construction by inflating costs. Builders, facing steep regulatory burdens, simply stopped building. In St. Louis, a reliance on tax credits and incentives for flashy developments has left vast swaths of the city with vacant lots and dilapidated buildings. In both cities, the results are clear: policies that ignore basic market principles fail to deliver desired results.

Kansas City and St. Louis offer cautionary tales. We don’t need more interventions that drive prices higher. We need policies that foster more housing construction, deregulate land use, and let the market work. Housing affordability won’t improve with more government spending—it will improve when we stop putting obstacles in the way.

Missouri Ballot Issues and the Return of Three Mile Island

Posted on by Elias Tsapelas

David Stokes, Elias Tsapelas, and Avery Frank join Zach Lawhorn to discuss: Missouri’s Amendment 6, the Kirkwood sales tax vote, the state’s minimum wage proposition, the return of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, and more.

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Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

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