What It Would Take to Bring Green Energy to Kingdom City, Missouri?

“We reason from the hand to the head,” Henry David Thoreau wrote, pointing out how a simple example drawn from ordinary life may serve to illuminate a larger truth.

As a revealing example of the magnitude of the changes that would be required to put the so-called “Green New Deal” into effect, let’s look at the little village of Kingdom City, Missouri, population 124. Endorsed by several presidential candidates, the Green New Deal would ban all use of fossil fuels over the next decade.

The big business in Kingdom City is servicing heavy trucks passing through Missouri going East and West on Interstate 70 and North and South on U.S. 54. Three filling stations in Kingdom City handle more than 450 18-wheelers on an average day.

What would it take for the Kingdom City filling stations to do the same work using electric power rather than diesel fuel?

That is an answerable question, using mathematics to convert from one form of energy usage to another. We know that a “Green” 18-wheeler must supply essentially the same average power to move a load of cargo over the same distance as a diesel-powered vehicle. Based on diesel fuel usage and engine efficiency, we estimate the required average power at 160 kW (a little over 200 horsepower).

To recharge a single truck after eight hours on the road in 20 minutes would require a charging station capacity of 3.88 megawatts. For three truck stops, each with 10 electric “pumps,” you must multiply this number by 30 to get the needed capacity. That comes to 116 megawatts, which is the equivalent of 58 2-megwatt windmills costing $3 to $4 million each.

In other words, to use electricity to refuel heavy trucks passing through Kingdom City would require a starting investment on the order of $200 million in new wind-generated electric capacity. This calculation does not include further substantial change-over costs, including the installation of additional transmission lines and the construction of recharging stations. For simplicity sake, we have also ignored the significant reduction in fuel economy caused by the approximately 10 tons of extra weight of the Tesla-like batteries that a “Green” 18-wheeler would carry.

The Kingdom City example underscores the prohibitively high cost of trying to implement even a tiny part of the all-encompassing Green New Deal. Take the $200 million starting investment in this little village and multiply it by the thousands of other locations across the United States. You quickly arrive at a figure in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

But would there be any positive impact on the environment?

Now, you must consider that three-quarters of Missouri’s electrical generating capacity comes from burning coal and another 5 percent from natural gas. We also get another 10 percent from nuclear energy, but the Green New Dealers are not calling for more nuclear power. So where, over the next decade, could we find the additional generating capacity that would power electric cars and trucks?

It could only come from increased burning of fossil fuels.

 

Summer Internships

The Show-Me Institute is pleased to offer internship opportunities for Summer 2019.

  • Internships are open to current undergraduate and graduate students, as well as recent graduates. 
  • Internships last approximately ten weeks. The exact starting and ending dates are flexible, but we anticipate that each internship will run from June 3 until August 16.
  • Summer interns will work a full-time schedule (9 a.m. to 5 p.m.). 
  • Interns will be involved in many aspects of the Institute’s operations. Interns will work closely with senior staff on a wide variety of projects. They can expect greater responsibility and personal attention than they would receive at larger organizations.
  • Interns will assist staff members with a variety of tasks. These may include researching public policy topics, assisting with social media, organizing events, and writing and editing op-eds, newsletter articles, studies, and other documents. Some administrative and clerical tasks will also be required.
  • Policy internships as well as communications and development internships are available.
  • A Show-Me Institute internship is an excellent opportunity to improve your research and writing skills. Each intern will produce regular blog posts and an op-ed on a public policy topic of interest to him or her. Each intern will receive feedback and assistance from staff members throughout the process.
  • Internships are offered in both the St. Louis and Kansas City offices.
  • Interns will be paid on an hourly basis.

Those wishing to be considered for an internship should submit the application (see below) and the requested supporting materials. The deadline for applications is Friday, April 26, 2019. However, we will begin conducting interviews as applications are received. Applicants can expect a decision in mid to late May.

School Choice Is Good

School choice is inherently good. I don’t mean to say school choice is good because it will lead to specific outcomes, such as higher test scores or higher graduation rates, although I think it will. Rather, I mean that school choice—the ability to choose your child’s school—is itself a good thing.

Education is more than teaching the three Rs; it is inherently value-laden. Education gets at our deep-seated values. Schools touch on these explicitly in what they choose to teach or not to teach. They also touch on these values in the little things they do. When we insist students call teachers Mr. or Mrs., for instance, we teach them to respect authority. When we recite the pledge of allegiance, we are inculcating reverence for our country. In almost every action, whether little or big, our schools are imparting values to our children.

This connection between schools and values is a problem in our public education system, which typically assigns students to schools. It means that if I want my values taught in the school, I must impose them on everyone else. As Vance Randall, an education professor at Brigham Young University, has written, “A major cost inherent in the establishment of state-sponsored schools in America was an educational program with conflict built into the system.”

But not every country has designed their system like ours. In Australia, Ireland, Belgium, and most other industrialized nations, the government provides some funding to non-governmental (private) schools. They allow for broader choice.

In the United States our system developed differently. Beginning in the mid to late 1800s, there was a push for the Common School. The leading lights of those days, however, such as Horace Mann, looked at the waves of immigrants coming into the country, the isolated rural villages teaching students in Polish or German, and thought that this decentralized system was chaos. They devised plans for a new system – a Common School System. As historian David Tyack put it in his 1975 book, “They tried to design, in short, the one best system.”

For over a hundred years now, America has been trying to build and refine this one best system. But it won’t work—because there is no single, best system. We disagree on which values we want imparted to our children. We also disagree on which instructional practices we want in our schools; I want direct instruction, you want discovery learning. We cannot both have our way in the traditional system. Either I win and you lose, or vice versa.

That is why school choice is good in and of itself. It recognizes that in our pluralistic society, we do not need to force one set of values and instruction on children. Instead, we can allow people—even people we disagree with—to voluntarily associate with one another and to choose the type of school that fits their child and their values.

We should not have to check our values at the schoolhouse door as a condition for receiving a public education. If we cherish freedom of thought, of expression, and of association—if we care about diversity—it hardly seems possible that we can cultivate those values by denying families the opportunity to pursue diverse educational opportunities that shape the thoughts and develop the minds of their children.

Follow-up on Kansas City Population Trends

The other day we published a post about some Brookings Institution data suggesting the Kansas City was doing well with millennials. The data was not specific to Kansas City, Missouri but rather the entire 14-county metropolitan area. There is reason to think that outer areas such as Olathe and Overland Park are doing well attracting millennials, but what about Kansas City proper? After all, the city has spent “hundreds of millions of dollars downtown, probably in excess of a billion” to attract millennials and others. Is it working?

The author of the Brookings Institution study referenced above does not know about Kansas City proper, or more specifically about downtown Kansas City. The Downtown Council itself apparently can’t provide worthwhile numbers either. Trying to piece together the data requires investing a lot of time and resources going through Census data at the county level. Until someone does that in 2019, we can rely on a 2016 paper for the Show-Me Institute by Wendell Cox, “Kansas City—Genuinely World Class.”

In Figure 3 on page 6, Cox offers us the chart at the top of this post. As you can see, populations have not grown in the urban parts of the Kansas City but rather in the areas outside the city proper. In fact, the urban and near-in suburbs are shrinking. This is expected to continue. Cox writes:

According to the Mid-America Regional Council, population growth will continue to be concentrated in the suburban counties. Between 2010 and 2040, it is projected that approximately 45 percent of the population growth will be in Johnson County, which will make up the bulk of the 55 percent of metropolitan area growth that is projected to occur in the Kansas suburbs. The Missouri counties are projected to constitute 45 percent of the metropolitan area growth, with Cass County accounting for 18 percent and Jackson County for 11 percent (Figure 4).

Lots of organizations spend a lot of money trying to attract people and jobs to Kansas City. All them have an incentive to show that all that money—in many cases tax dollars—is well spent so that their budgets will be expanded. Successes seem rare and the data aren’t promising. But if city leaders are serious about attracting residents and jobs, we need to have a serious conversation about what is working and what is not.

Some Promising Numbers About Millennials in Kansas City. Maybe.

 

William Frey of the Brookings Institution just published a report entitled “How migration of millennials and seniors has shifted since the Great Recession,” and it has some promising numbers for Kansas City. In the report, Frey writes:

Another feature of young adult migration magnets is their location in the South and West “Sun Belt” region where all except three of the top 20 magnets are located. (Those three—Minneapolis-St. Paul, Columbus, and Kansas City—are among the most highly educated Midwest areas for millennials.)

…Today’s young adults, now encompassing those in the prime millennial ages, show a penchant for “educated places”—including Denver and Seattle—as well as more affordable areas like Minneapolis and Kansas City with pre-recession hot spots like Riverside, Phoenix, and Atlanta showing reduced appeal. 

Frey, as do most researchers, uses the term Kansas City broadly, to encompass an entire metropolitan statistical area (MSA). The Kansas City MSA stretches from Independence to Lawrence and includes 14 counties. Its population is 2.1 million, compared to the under 500,000 within the political boundaries of Kansas City, Missouri itself. Knowing whether a statistic describes a city or a metropolitan area is important, lest you conclude, as some would have you believe, that Kansas City gets 25 million visitors a year. It doesn’t.

It’s important to remember the Brookings Institution numbers on millennial migration speak to the broader MSA. Frey doesn’t report how much of the growth is taking place in downtown Kansas City, or how much is taking place in Olathe and Overland Park, two places recently listed as top destinations for millennials. Frey doesn’t report it because he doesn’t know it; I asked him.

As has happened before, it is possible that reports like this will be set upon by groups like the Downtown Council and the City of Kansas City as proof that the billions of dollars spent subsidizing wealthy developers in downtown Kansas City are bearing fruit. But until we know migration numbers within the MSAs, all that optimism is premature and skepticism is warranted.

Below: a map containg data from Frey’s analysis.

Map with net migration data

Springfield’s Convention Dream

Private consultants have determined that Springfield, Missouri is on the cusp of attracting a great deal of new convention business.

According to the Springfield Convention and Visitors Bureau, a study conducted by Hunden Strategic Partners “included a comprehensive market analysis that determined a convention center could support its operations and attract successful meetings and conventions if executed properly.” A press release about the study added the following good news:

The Springfield travel and tourism industry has experienced steady growth with more than five years of record overnight visitors, topping out at more than 1.38 million in 2018. However, the city’s convention market has been flat in recent years due to growing competition from cities offering newer convention facilities that are more appealing than what Springfield has available.

“We are not seeing growth in the convention business because we simply do not have competitive facilities,” said Tracy Kimberlin, president of the Springfield Convention and Visitors Bureau.

The Hunden study claims that over 20 years the convention center would generate $1.11 billion in revenue (page 129) and create 800 new full-time jobs over 10 years (page 131). What a great opportunity for private investors!

Except that somehow, it isn’t. The project apparently cannot happen without significant taxpayer investment—which is to say, free money from the government. Pages 122, 123 and 134 detail the need to increase and redirect existing taxes and levy new taxes through a CID (Community Improvement District) and maybe even through tax-increment financing or Chapter 100 bonds (page 122). As an aside, the Hunden report offers, “It will be very difficult to declare an area ‘Blighted’ that recently received a $300 million investment.” Alas, if only that were true.

This potential return on investment for a convention center in Springfield is either a good investment opportunity or not. We find out which when private developers put together a prospectus and share it with private investors who will decide for themselves whether to invest their own money. If developers cannot raise enough private capital, then the project is probably a bad idea.

Asking taxpayers to subsidize the project—exactly because developers cannot raise enough private capital—is admitting that they want public funds to support a bad idea. The proposal ought to be rejected on its face.

If you are interested in learning more about the dubious marketing claims of the convention hotel industry, you can watch this 2015 presentation by University of Texas at San Antonio professor Heywood Sanders, who wrote the book on convention centers in the United States.

 

Downtown Baseball? A Swing and a Miss

On the October 12, 2017 episode of KCPT’s Ruckus, panelists discussed the topic of moving Kauffman Stadium to downtown Kansas City. A panelist who has worked as a consultant to local governments and who has steered public funds toward private baseball business in the past said we ought to be having this conversation. More recently, the editorial board of The Kansas City Star said “Kansas City should launch a metro wide conversation about a decision with far-reaching consequences.”

Exactly what does it mean to have the conversation? It will doubtlessly require money spent on consultants to draft options, hold meetings, and the like. And what will those plans drive toward? Probably an expensive public finance project to buy a new stadium for a billionaire.

We’re spending money so we can spend money. It’s absurd.

It gets worse. The Star’s editorial board included this nugget:

City Manager Troy Schulte said his conversations with [Royals owner David] Glass associates have left the door open to that possibility.

“He (Glass) is saying, “Give us some options,” Schulte said. “He has not said no.”

In other words, the team owner isn’t even asking for any of this, he just didn’t refuse. And why should he? He’d be a fool to stop the city from offering him the same type of taxpayer subsidies that cities make all the time. As a result, city leaders, including the Star, are eager to start spending money on it.

Wait, there’s more. The Star makes clear there is additional cost beyond the taxpayer outlay of funds on consultants and construction subsidies:

Other possibilities remain east of City Hall and near the 18th & Vine Jazz District. “You’ve got to reserve it, or you’re losing development sites,” Schulte said.

Schulte is saying the city would intervene in the market to “reserve” sites, effectively stopping anyone else who might have a better, unsubsidized, idea for development. (One can imagine that at the time of construction, the then-mayor and council members will point to the lot they have kept vacant and say, “look at this lot no one has developed, we need this downtown stadium to address blight.”)

If Kansas City’s wealthy sports team owners want to consider other locations for their stadiums, and spend their own money doing so, they are free and welcome to do so. But the idea that taxpayers should take the initiative and spend money now so we can maybe spend money later is completely wrong.

 

States with School Choice Reap the Benefits

Kelly Clarkson says that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, and I believe her. You know who doesn’t believe her? Teachers who are willing to close down the schools in their state to prevent any student from having a choice when it comes to their education. Rather than adapting to charter school competition and becoming stronger in the process, some try to just kill charter schools outright. West Virginia teachers attempted this recently, and it worked. The threat of seven potential charter schools opening in their state was killed, even though the teachers would have received raises from the same bill.

As a researcher, I can’t stress enough that correlation doesn’t equal causation, but I’m still struck by the following graphic.

State Performance Graph

This graphic was created by the Urban Institute for their 2015 report, Breaking the Curve: Promises and Pitfalls of Using NAEP Data to Assess the State Role in Student Achievement. The states in the bottom left quadrant are those that both performed in the bottom half of all states on National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in 2013, and also saw their NAEP scores decline between 2003 and 2013, after controlling for student demographics. And the states in this bottom left quadrant are mostly states with little or no school choice. The states in orange had no charter schools in 2013, and those in blue only allowed charter schools as punishment for low performance. Oklahoma gave up using charters as a last resort for low-performing districts in 2015, but Missouri has not. Iowa and Wyoming had fewer than 400 students in charter schools in 2013. By contrast, Florida and Texas had over 200,000 students enrolled in charter schools that same year. Pennsylvania had almost 120,000 charter school students and New Jersey and Massachusetts had about 30,000 each.

If school choice killed public education, this graphic would look a lot different. I’m perplexed that the states in the bottom left quadrant, including Missouri, think that taking a strong stance against school choice is a winning strategy.

 

Truly “Public” Schools?

Have you ever heard any of these chestnuts?

  • Unlike public schools, charter schools make families apply to them which keeps out kids from less-involved families.
  • Unlike public schools, charter schools require students to maintain a certain GPA to apply (or to stay enrolled).
  • Unlike public schools, charter schools require students to adhere to a conduct code or else get expelled.
  • Unlike public schools, charter schools require parents to come to meetings before they can enroll their children, so that the school can screen out less-involved parents.

These are serious charges. If charter schools can pick and choose their students, are they really public schools that are open to all?

I did some digging on the websites of Kansas City area schools, and some admissions requirements surprised me.

For example, to get into one Kansas City area school, “Applicants must score at or above the 60th percentile on a national standardized reading and math test to be eligible for entrance. Students must also have a record of good citizenship and a cumulative GPA of 2.5 or higher.”

To get into another, “Students must have a GPA of 2.35 or better, a 90% or better attendance record, and a discipline record that shows appropriate student behavior.”

To get into another, “They must be school ready and able to abide by school policies and expectations as indicated in ‘Behavioral Expectation Student Contract’, which will be distributed upon acceptance.” What’s more, “All new parents will be required to attend a mandatory informational [meeting] before a seat will be offered.”

Can you believe this? Ostensibly public schools are deliberately screening out low-performing students, students with discipline problems, and students with less involved families.

So now is the time I’d bet you’d like me to reveal the culprits. It might surprise you to learn that none of them are charter schools. All five of these examples come from Kansas City Public School Signature Schools, a group of magnet schools. The full list of requirements is on the KCPS website.

According to Rebecca Haessig of the local education blog Set the Schools Free, nearly 26 percent of KCPS students attend one of the seven Signature Schools that place admissions requirements on children or families. They play a huge part of the public school system in Kansas City, yet get very little attention. I wonder why?

For the record, charter schools cannot, by law, place requirements related to previous achievement or behavior on their students. They cannot force parents to attend informational meetings before children are offered a seat. Perhaps they’re the most public schools in town.

 

Support Us

The work of the Show-Me Institute would not be possible without the generous support of people who are inspired by the vision of liberty and free enterprise. We hope you will join our efforts and become a Show-Me Institute sponsor.

Donate
Man on Horse Charging