Election Week: The Perils of Frontloading

Posted on by Nicholas Loyal

This morning, it was all supposed to be over. Two candidates were promised to rise above the masses and act as standard-bearers going into the convention. The country was supposed to have spoken in a collective voice of approval, and the long trek of candidacy was to begin.

Turns out we’re right where we were yesterday, only it’s Missouri — so the weather’s different.

The frontloading of primaries by a number of states (including Missouri) to form a Super-Duper Tuesday backfired yesterday, as the collective need for half the country to stay relevant in the competition did nothing more than confirm the only fact that we already knew: this election isn’t going to be over until the first Tuesday in November.

In fact, Time has posted an interesting article that claims rather than keep states relevant, the frontloading of primaries onto a single, oppressively early date has actually taken them out of the decisionmaking process (emphasis added):

[A]ll the big states that rushed into the void to hold early primaries
may turn out to have spoken too soon. Instead of making themselves
kingmakers, their divided result has abdicated the power to the states
that waited their turn. The next major contests include Maryland and
Virginia, and then Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, followed by what could
be a slow and grueling crawl to the convention.

Ohio and Texas this year will go to the polls to select their candidates on March 4, making them — rather than the 25 states and territories that polled yesterday — the new drivers of this campaign season.

The ironic thing, though, is that these contests on March 4 are falling on almost exactly the same date that the Missouri caucuses fell (March 7 in 1996 and 2000) before the state switched to a primary system so Missouri voters would have more of a say on the national stage. Would Missouri voters have exerted their influence with a mightier hand if they hadn’t been swept up in frontloading fever?

Primaries shouldn’t all be on one day, they should be spread to allow candidates to legitimately campaign throughout the entire country, while allowing all states a chance to contribute their legitimate say. Frontloading alienates voters, lengthens the final stage of the campaign to levels of ridiculous length and expense, and forces candidates to present themselves in an unrealistic fashion in the quest for one day’s bounty of delegates. There has been much talk this week about Missouri’s status as a bellwether state. Let’s hope that state officials keep this status in mind when scheduling future contests so that the Show-Me spirit doesn’t get lost in the pack.

The Utility of Efficiency

Posted on by Eric D. Dixon

At the risk of beating a dead horse, for the record, I’d like to disagree with Justin’s disagreement with my "focus on aggregate utility as a value judgment." I think that Justin’s argument stemmed in part from my departure from Michael Pakko’s original article on smoking bans in Missouri. I didn’t intend to make it seem as though my blog entry was a summation of Pakko’s ideas — far from it. I merely used that article as a jumping-off point for a few further ideas. After the second paragraph, my own blog entry about smoking bans had nothing to do with Pakko’s excellent article.

My objection to Justin’s objection is that using aggregate utility — or "efficiency" — as a method of measuring a policy’s worth is not particularly controversial among economists. As the economist David Friedman pointed out, it’s an old solution to the problem of measuring a policy’s overall cost or benefit to the people it affects:

A little over a hundred years ago, an economist named Alfred Marshall proposed a solution to that problem. It is not a very good solution. It is merely, for many although not all purposes, better than any alternative that anyone has come up with since. The result is that economists, in both law schools and economics departments, continue to use Marshall’s solution, sometimes concealed behind later and (in my view) less satisfactory explanations and defenses.

Marshall’s argument starts by considering some change—the imposition or abolition of a tariff, a revision of the tax code, a shift in tort law from strict liability to negligence. The result of the change is to make some people better off and some worse off. In principle, one could measure the magnitude of the effects by asking each person affected how much he would, if necessary, pay to get the benefit (if the change made him better off) or prevent the loss (if it made him worse off). If the sum was positive, if total gains were larger than total losses, we would describe the change as an economic improvement; if it was negative, an economic worsening.

Several things are worth noticing about this way of evaluating changes. One is that we are accepting each person’s own judgement of the value to him of things that affect him. In measuring the effect of drug legalization on heroin addicts we ask not whether we think they are better off with legal access to heroin but whether they think they are—how much each addict would pay, if necessary, to have heroin made legal. A second is that we are comparing effects on different people using dollars as our common unit—not dollars actually paid out or received, but dollars as a common measure of value, a way of putting all costs and benefits on the same scale.

Continue reading “The Utility of Efficiency”

School Districts Promote Recycling

Posted on by Dave Roland

As I recently noted, Kansas City’s new interim superintendent is Dr. John Martin, who served as the deputy superintendent for the St. Louis Public Schools as the district went through the process of losing its accreditation. Today, the Post-Dispatch reports that the Jennings School District will pay $230,000 to buy out the contract of Superintendent Kay Royster, whom Jennings hired after she served as the "chief academic officer" for Riverview Gardens School District as it slid toward its loss of accreditation. Before her ill-fated term at Riverview Gardens, Royster served as the superintendent for Peoria, Ill. — where the district eventually bought out her contract because of "mismanagement" claims. And before Peoria, Royster was bought out of her superintendent’s contract in Kalamazoo, Mich.

The unsettling message here is that some school districts are handing hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars to administrators whose recent history casts significant doubt on their ability to effectively improve the performance of their new districts. In the case of Kay Royster, the Jennings School District had to have known about her past issues when they hired her, yet now the district must pay a ridiculous sum of your money just to get rid of her. Missourians — parents, students, and taxpayers alike — deserve and ought to demand better.

Election Week: Will Your Vote Count?

Posted on by Nicholas Loyal

It’s Super Tuesday, so I hope that sometime before, after, or while you’re actually reading this (hooray for iPhones) you’ve voted in your party’s presidential preference primary (assuming, of course, that you live in one of the two dozen states that is undertaking such a contest today). However, in keeping with the theme of the week, a question looms over this contest: Will your vote count?

(A quick note: The following discussion will require a bit of knowledge about how the primary process works. For more information, go here or here.)

A feature by Slate recently highlighted the notions of how an incredibly tight primary race could, in effect, render votes of participants in the California Democratic Primary meaningless. This can be attributed to the fact that, under the Democrats’ proportional method of selecting delegates, a tight race (such as that currently in place) will result in the candidates splitting delegates in a district with an even number and a winning candidate only gaining a one-delegate advantage in odd-numbered districts. Since this selection plan affects the nation as a whole, what would happen if we were to apply a similar analysis to Missouri?

(Second Note: The Republican primary will not be discussed at length because GOP rules have established winner-take-all primaries. Votes from all parts of Missouri will help any given candidate reach the necessary plurality of the vote.)

According to the Missouri Democratic Party’s Delegate Selection Plan, an even number of delegates fall in the 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 8th congressional districts while an odd number are at stake in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 9th (see map). Based on this analysis, 42 of Missouri’s 47 district-based delegates will be evenly split between the two democratic front runners, leaving only five district contests with any kind of influence.

The problem, though, is that these five districts exclude large portions of Missouri’s population. The 3rd district includes portions of the St. Louis metropolitan area, while the 5th essentially encompasses all of Kansas City. The even nature of the 7th and 8th also means that democratic voters in Springfield and Cape Girardeau will, barring a landslide, see their votes split between the candidates. In essence, the competition in these districts ended before it began.

Some might see this as a discouraging revelation to bring out on Super Tuesday. I feel the opposite. If you live in one of the questionable districts, and you’re planning on voting in the Democratic primary, get out there. Use Missouri’s
open primary system to your advantage to help encourage turnout. Get over that hump. After all, Missouri still has 25 delegates that are allocated according to the statewide vote — and that might be the only district that really matters.

Same-Day Registration – “Who are those people?”

Posted on by Justin Hauke

Following Nick’s lead, I would like to add my own soapbox commentary on election-day voting rights.

Over the past week, I’ve had several conversations with people about my opposition to same-day voter registration. Proponents argue that same-day registration — that is, allowing unregistered (but legally eligible) voters to register to vote at the polls on election day — promotes democratic integrity, ensuring that every voice is heard. And a more sinister (in my opinion) argument is that same-day registration is necessary to protect minorities from being politically disenfranchised (which somehow implies that “minorities” aren’t able to register otherwise).

While I certainly support voting rights legislation (I’m looking at you, poll taxes), same-day registration is an open invitation for fraud and populist (read: “mob”) vote chasing. In my opinion, same-day registration encourages politicians (or dubious PACs) to round up everyone they can off the street and bus them to the polls. Anecdotal evidence of "vote-trading" schemes abounds, and there is little evidence to suggest that same-day registration does anything to help “enfranchise” minorities (whatever that means), or that voter ID legislation “disenfranchises” them either (whatever that means, too).

Protecting voting rights means protecting the integrity of people’s votes. Do we really want some voters to vote two or three times each?

Property Taxes Revisited

Posted on by Justin Hauke

The Webster-Kirkwood Times has some commentary on Senate Bill 711, which would eliminate the property tax loophole that allows taxing jurisdictions to raise tax revenues through reassessment, rather than through rate increases.

Dave has some commentary on how this issue will affect 2008 property reassessments, in light of recent housing events.

The one comment I have on the legislation is, why is the Senior Citizen Property Tax credit being increased from $750 to $1,100? If the purpose of the tax bill is to protect taxpayers by forcing jurisdictions to roll back tax rates to counter reassessment increases, then how do you maintain revenue-neutral tax policy when you’ve just created a huge revenue shortfall through an expanded tax credit? In the interest of fairness, shouldn’t cities be allowed to “roll up” property tax rates to counter reassessment decreases?

Election Week: Rise of the Youth

Posted on by Nicholas Loyal

In honor of Tuesday’s presidential primaries here in Missouri, I’ll be running a bit of a series this week related to the trials and tribulations of Missouri’s electoral system. However, before we get into that (and while I still have hope for the process of democracy) I thought I’d lead off with something that ripped away my case of the Mondays.

The front page of the Post-Dispatch today featured a story on how Missouri is allowing high school juniors and seniors as young as 16 years old to act as election officials in the coming elections. Suddenly, polling places at local high schools that used to only be manned by retirees will now be joined by students not old enough to vote themselves. The reason for this change is as much about democracy as it is about technology (emphasis added):

The program is more than just a feel-good civics lesson. The county is
equipping each of the teens with $290 hand-held computers — Palm Pilots
? that are designed to eliminate snags in the voting process.

"I have to say, we recruited these kids for our own selfish benefit,"
said Dick Bauer, an assistant director at the St. Louis County Election
Board. "We really need their help."

Not only will this action bring more young people (that famously apathetic group thats seems to grow closer and closer to the door of relevance) into the realm of electoral politics, the young people themselves will give back tenfold with their technological prowess. One often overlooked fact in the criticism of electronic voting machines (and other new voting advances) is that the traditionally elderly election officials who must operate and maintain the machinery are woefully inept at working the technology. Some may cry foul at the thought of a 17-year-old with a Palm Pilot checking their registration. I, however, say bravo! If not for efficiency’s sake, than at least for this:

The Palm Pilots used in St. Louis County will have information on every registered voter in the county.

They are designed to save poll workers the time and trouble of paging
through paper volumes to verify registrations in cases involving voters
who have moved to a new address without notifying officials, or people
who have not voted in many years.

As I’ll discuss later in the series, one of the major problems plaguing Missouri elections is the difficulties voters have in switching polling places, or being placed on inactive voter lists. It sounds like, with this new technology, these are problems that can be overcome.

Good work, Board of Elections.

Saved by the Midwife

Posted on by Sarah Brodsky

MIdwives make an appearance in the Kansas City Star:

What if hospitals are overwhelmed by casualties, disease or infection? Many first responders are not prepared to deal with the special needs of pregnant women and infants. Where will women give birth during the next disaster?

The answer, according to this op-ed, is midwives, who are used to helping with births outside of hospitals — so a natural disaster would be no big deal to them.

I’m having trouble imagining a natural disaster that is so huge that women can’t get to hospitals, and that at the same time allows for easy communication with and transportation of midwives.

But even during the good times, women should be able to choose midwives without breaking the law. The op-ed notes that some religious groups do not use hospitals. For them, the choice is between an experienced midwife with some medical knowledge, and doing it themselves. Rural women who live far from hospitals might prefer to have a midwife close-by. And while there are risks involved in giving birth with a midwife rather than with an MD, there are also risks of exposure to infection and disease whenever you go to the hospital.

In short, legalizing midwifery is a good idea right now. We don’t need to wait for disaster to strike.

A Very Good Idea About Trash in St. Louis County …

Posted on by David Stokes

We have discussed the St. Louis County trash collection proposal numerous times on this blog, and I have officially run out of clever ways to introduce "trash" in the post’s title. Nonetheless, St. Louis County has apparently decided to delay the introduction of the controversial trash collection plan by several months, except in one trash district. Here is the article in the Post-Dispatch. Officials have chosen to implement the plan in the smallest district (kind of northwest county) with the least amount of opposition, and this will give them time to see how the plan works, and make changes if necessary.

While others at SMI have been strongly opposed to the plan, I have wavered back and forth on it. There are no doubt good arguments on both sides. The primary argument in favor of the proposed trash districts is that there will almost certainly be reduced wear and tear if only one trash truck drives up and down the streets each week, rather than several. We all pay for the neighborhood streets in unincorporated areas, whether or not we live in a municipality, and I want my tax dollars used wisely. On the other hand, I have a strong aversion to the government forcing people to do something one way when it has been working just fine to have people arranging their own trash collection. The new law’s opt-out provisions did a good job of addressing that concern, though, in my opinion.

Anyway, I think the starter district idea is a good one. Perhaps if the new plan works well, everyone’s concerns will be alleviated. And if it doesn’t, officials can scrap the whole thing before it goes countywide. The most likely answer is that it will work well — but that won’t matter to the opponents, because their objections are bigger than that, to their credit. Will South Pointe (sorry, unable to find a link to this, because it predated widespread use of the Internet by a few years) rise again because of trash districts, trash transfer stations, and more? We will have to wait and see on that …

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