SMI in the Springfield News-Leader Today

A commentary in the Springfield News-Leader today cited a recent op-ed of ours (OK, of mine) about city utilities in Springfield. The commentary noted how, despite its pension issues, the Springfield city government is far from broke, and offered as one piece of evidence the value of its utility holdings. That is where we came in:

Further, the Show-Me Institute estimated that City Utilities’ water division alone could be sold for $75 million.

That was a very rough estimate, as I readily admitted in the piece on Springfield and City Utilities that this figure came from, but it is nonetheless based on reasonable calculations that I discussed in detail. The author of today’s piece is right on: Springfield is not broke, and it does have options in fixing the city’s pension problems. Those options may or may not involve a tax increase, but selling the municipal utilities is a very realistic option that has already been done by Florissant and Webster Groves here in Missouri, to give just two examples.

Things I Like About the BASIS Charter Schools

I wrote in my last post about BASIS that the schools haven’t yet demonstrated the potential to scale up to a level that would change the education system. BASIS has helped small classes of motivated students excel, which is a praiseworthy accomplishment. But if the United States is to compete with India and China, the education system will have to find a way to reach the students who are several grades behind, who don’t speak English, or who aren’t on the lookout for accelerated schools that don’t advertise. And they will have to succeed with more than a few hundred students.

With that said, I agree completely with Bob Compton’s statement in the comments: “My conclusion is every community should have at least one BASIS Charter school.” I would be very happy for this choice to be available to parents everywhere. Even if BASIS fails to have a broad, transformational effect on American eduction, it’s still a good school, and the option should be there for people who want it.

These are some things BASIS does that I hope other schools will emulate:

  1. BASIS pays teachers according to their performance. This system attracts good teachers and rewards them for teaching well. Here, BASIS is a bright spot in U.S. education; the vast majority of schools instead reward seniority or other factors that are irrelevant to student learning.
  2. BASIS teachers are knowledgeable in the subjects they teach. Although I find the requirement that teachers have a graduate degree in their subject to be somewhat arbitrary — the most important qualification is that they have expertise, not a diploma — these teachers are better prepared than their counterparts in other schools, who often earn degrees in education theory without bothering to study the information they’re supposed to convey to students.
  3. BASIS doesn’t require a test for admissions, nor does it ask entering students to prove “giftedness.” BASIS reminds me of a gifted-and-talented magnet, with one important difference: The students don’t have to be gifted. Undoubtedly, the admissions process involves a lot of self-selection, but that’s a better form of selection than the one practiced by traditional accelerated schools. It’s unfair when a high-level middle school education is limited to those who passed intelligence tests. At BASIS, it may be that not all students can keep up, but at least the lottery winners can give it their best try.

St. Louisans Are Smarter Than the Post-Dispatch Implies

Last month, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch published an editorial critiquing the Show-Me Institute’s study of earnings taxes. It rejected both the type of study and its conclusions — which is unwarranted, on both counts. In taking issue with the model, the Post-Dispatch mentioned an alternate study as “proof” that the institute was wrong:

In 2005, the East-West Gateway Council of Governments actually asked area residents (what a research concept!) about their most important considerations in deciding where to live over the next eight to 10 years.

My graduate research methods class this semester allows me to apply some knowledge: The Post-Dispatch is referring to a qualitative research study, which is typically an initial model for a topic that has not been well studied, or something that cannot be captured with numbers. (One might conduct a qualitative study to get an idea of what needs to be studied more rigorously.) Qualitative studies are subjective, and are influenced by the researcher, the wording of questions, the population interviewed, and how honest the interviewee chooses to be.

Quantitative studies — manipulating data, like in an “abstract model” — are considered higher-tiered studies. That is not to say that quantitative studies are strictly better than qualitative; both have their purposes and their flaws. However, for something like a tax and housing decision, which involves both people choosing whether to live or not to live in an area, a model is better able to predict and explain phenomena. An interview study given to people living in St. Louis city excludes the data points of those people and businesses that have already lived there and chose to locate elsewhere — people that may be difficult to find.

There are some people who would choose to live in the city whether it has a 10-percent earnings tax or no earnings tax at all — but these are not the people at issue in an economic model. A model studies the people on the margin, the limited subset of people for whom that 1 percent is a tipping point between opportunity sets that otherwise have equal attractiveness. Some marginal group of people who weigh the pros and cons of each jurisdiction and find they add up to similar opportunities will choose to live or create a business in a suburb instead of the city, in order to capture that extra 1 percent. (And, although it may seem small, a 1-percent tax over the lifetime of a career adds up significantly.)

Another point of contention for the Post-Dispatch is the amount of money that the tax generates annually ($153.1 million in 2008). The article pointed out that this is similar to the size of the Metropolitan Police Department budget, and then conflated removing the earnings tax with getting rid of the police department — something that the Show-Me Institute never argued. At any rate, the Post-Dispatch seems unaware of our follow-up earnings tax study, which outlined a viable way to replace revenue lost from eliminating the earnings tax — a land value tax that would provide much less distortion of natural economic growth and development in the city, because of its fixed value.

St. Louis County and the entire metropolitan area is proportionally much larger than the city itself; in 2006, the city ranked 51st-largest in the United States, while the entire metropolitan area ranked 19th. People are not avoiding the St. Louis area in general, they are avoiding St. Louis city in particular — and with good reason. Good economists recognize that some people consider finances and tax rates to help them make rational decisions when choosing a residence or a business location. This confidence in people’s ability to weigh the incentives they face is well supported by actual data.

Kevin Chavous and David Levine Commemorate Milton Friedman

On July 31, the Show-Me Institute hosted a luncheon celebrating the life and ideas of Nobel laureate economist and school choice advocate Milton Friedman. Those who attended were able to experience dynamic presentations from both Kevin Chavous, a former D.C. city councilman and current school reform leader, and Dr. David Levine, a well-known economist at Washington University.

For those who didn’t attend (or those who would like to relive the event), the video has been posted on the Show-Me Institute’s website. I encourage anybody who has even a passing interest in educational quality to watch and learn more about the issues that are facing U.S. schools today.

The video, which is also embedded below for your convenience, is a playlist consisting of eight separate parts. After each individual part has finished playing, the playlist should automatically load the subsequent part until the sequence has finished.

You may also choose to view any individual part on its own:

Part 1 (10:01) | Part 2 (9:59) | Part 3 (10:02) | Part 4 (9:53) | Part 5 (9:53) | Part 6 (9:50) | Part 7 (9:16) | Part 8 (1:47)

North Side Removal

Last night, I attended the latest NorthSide Regeneration, LLC, community meeting, along with Policy Pulse reporter Audrey Spalding (be sure to read her excellent article.) I was impressed with the presentation; the NorthSide development team has obviously spent a lot of time working on the logistics of the more than 4,000 parcels of land involved in their proposal. (You can read more about those plans on Policy Pulse.) However, aside from the generalities, many questions were left unanswered about how the development might affect the future of current area residents.

Meeting organizers requested that nobody record the proceedings, and had a few confrontations with some zealous bloggers. Arguments became heated a number of times, as community members questioned how their own properties fit into the proposed plans. Some people had seen the areas in which their houses and businesses currently stand designated as “green space” on the projected plans. Although the developer and city officials responded to some questions, others were left unanswered. The portions of the plans that are publicly available are still vague and general enough that a standard answer was that no one yet knows what will happen to a specific house or business in question, because the plans are not yet finalized.

A PowerPoint presentation provided some revealing before-and-after statistics about college education. Currently, only 3.4 percent of north side residents have a college education, compared to 15.5 percent nationally. According to NorthSide Regeneration’s presentation, they envision that 75 percent of area residents will have a college education. Not included alongside that 75-percent figure was the likelihood that such a drastic increase in college attendance figures will result not from a greater number of existing north side residents attaining higher education, but from a largely new population of better-educated residents populating the area and displacing many current residents.

Parts of the north side area are undeniably blighted, and do need work. The plans as presented showed the possibility of an attractive new community that might work well for upper-middle class residents who are looking for new parks, transit, and grocery stores within walking distance. However, although the presentation seemed designed to reassure area residents about their community’s bright future, it skirted the fact that many of the people who live there now have the most to lose from the new development, and will likely not be able to afford to continue living there if the plans proceed.

Tea Party Etiquette

Last night, Jenifer Roland (that is not a typo, she really just uses one “n”) and I were honored to be invited to address a meeting of the Meramec Township Republican Club in Southwest St. Louis County. (Think of the area around Fenton and Eureka if you are wondering where Meramec Township is.) It was a great opportunity to talk to a very large crowd about the Show-Me Institute and some of our studies. Jen gave an excellent talk about our recent health care study and touched on cap ‘n crunch trade.

I provided background about the Show-Me Institute and spoke briefly about property taxes and assessments. There were a number of Republican local elected officials there, and representatives of federal officeholders like Rep. Todd Akin and Sen. Kit Bond.

This was a township forum, not a tea party protest, but it quickly became clear that a number of tea party protesters also attended this event in order to have an opportunity to talk to some of their representatives. Here, though, the elected officials predominantly agreed with them, and the term “preaching to the choir” was used several times.

I love the tea party movement. I love that people are getting involved in their democracy. I appreciate that many tea party activists used to participate in real-world civics only through voting once — maybe twice — every four years, and now they are becoming more fully involved in the process. I would personally like to have heard a little less lecturing and condescension in some of the comments by the tea party activists last night, but you never get everything you want in life.

All in all, it was a terrific meeting and we thank Meramec Township for inviting us. Remember, Show-Me Institute staff and scholars are always available to speak about public policy to your political or civic group, of any party or affiliation.

The Model School, According to Two Million Minutes

A post on the Two Million Minutes blog reveals the subject of the newest documentary: the BASIS charter school in Arizona. Bob Compton describes the school as “low-cost, high performance, easily replicable.”

I’ve read some BASIS publications and parents’ reviews online, and it sounds like BASIS offers a challenging curriculum that most parents are very happy with.

The catch? It’s tiny. There are about a dozen students in each of the highest grades. More students attend the middle school, but there are fewer than 100 students in almost every grade. Based on the information available at publicschoolreview.com, only three percent of students are black or Hispanic.

I don’t want to imply that those facts detract from BASIS’s achievements; schools vary in size and demographic makeup. But I don’t see BASIS as an easily replicable model to improve U.S. education. The gap in test scores between whites and minorities is one of the most pressing issues education reformers grapple with, and a school that teaches few minority students doesn’t look like a promising model — unless it can show that its approach works with a diverse student body. Not only has BASIS failed to demonstrate success in closing that gap, but the school’s small size suggests that kids who are already doing well are self-selecting in. This is a common argument against lending too much credence to the high test scores that some charters achieve, and although I disagree with the argument in most cases, it’s hard to defend a school against that charge when it has only 13 kids in a grade.

In addition, BASIS’s small class sizes can’t be replicated across the U.S. school system without hiring many more teachers, which would be anything but “low cost.”

It could be that I just don’t know enough about BASIS, and that Two Million Minutes is on to something. I’ll keep following the coverage of Two Million Minutes, in case I’ve missed any evidence that the BASIS model has been scaled up.

Personal Responsibility Is the Best Medicine

Bill Maher and I can agree on something: Americans are fat and lazy.

Yesterday on the Huffington Post, Maher posted an editorial,  “New Rule: You Can’t Complain About Health Care Reform If You’re Not Willing to Reform Your Own Health.”

President Obama has identified all the problems with the health care system, but there’s one tiny issue he refuses to tackle, and that’s our actual health.

The best thing that a person can do to improve for his or her health is to abandon unhealthy habits. These are lifestyle changes that are simple and inexpensive. If a person quits smoking, he or she will even save money.

This week, the British Medical Journal published a study showing that men who stopped smoking and switched to a low-fat diet elongated their lives by an average of 10 years. The researchers followed 19,000 men, starting in the late 1960s. PLOS-Medicine published a similar study in 2008 that demonstrated a 14-year increase in longevity, not just 10, with four items only: non-smoking, daily exercise, eating vegetables and fruits, and weight control.

There is a farrago of other lifestyle changes that can positively affect a person’s longevity, such as flossing and moving to a rural area.

If Americans do not stop shirking personal responsibility for their own health, any effort at health care reform will be inefficacious.

But I suppose that it’s easier to blame fast food restaurants or the government.

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