The Jobs Fallacy

Posted on by John Payne

A number of people turned out in Columbia on Monday morning to call on Congress to pass a clean energy bill, which the activists claimed would create 36,000 jobs in Missouri. That sounds nice enough, but it would actually be a bad thing. Jobs are not goods; they are what people do to pay for goods. If people want work to do, they can come over to my apartment, and I can have them clean the place, cook meals, and start running errands for me. I’m not actually willing to pay more than, say, $5 an hour for those services, but it would be a job.

What these activists are saying is that with a clean energy bill, we will get the same amount of energy, but it will take 36,000 more workers to create it, which means much higher energy costs. An economy is more efficient when it employs fewer resources (e.g., energy, labor, and steel) to make the same amount of a good or service, but the economic argument these activists are trying to advance is that we can get rich by doing less with more.

There are environmental arguments for supporting clean energy, and some of those may have merit. If you want to advance those arguments, there is a productive discussion to be had, but this jobs argument is completely specious and should be buried once and for all.

Gridlock and the History of Light Rail in Saint Louis

Posted on by Christine Harbin

I’m currently reading Gridlock: Why We’re Stuck in Traffic and What to Do About It by Randal O’Toole, the Antiplanner. Although the book discusses the problems in America’s transportation system in general, certain parts of it are specific to light rail in Saint Louis and the debate surrounding the proposed MetroLink expansion. I’d like to share some passages from Gridlock that communicate why expanding MetroLink is unnecessary and cost-inefficient.

First, O’Toole provides evidence that expanding MetroLink hasn’t historically increased ridership in Saint Louis:

When St. Louis opened its first light-rail line in 1993, it was hailed as a great success because system ridership, which had shrunk by nearly 40 percent in the previous decade, started growing again. But when St. Louis opened a second line in 2001, doubling the length of the rail system, rail ridership remained flat and bus ridership declined. By 2007, total system ridership was no greater than it had been in 1998.

Second, O’Toole describes how Saint Louis experienced a reduction in energy efficiency after launching a light-rail line. He explains that this is because the city ultimately uses more fuel on buses that carry smaller average loads than it did before building the line.

For example, in 1991, before Saint Louis built its first light-rail line, St. Louis buses averaged for than 10 riders and consumed 4,600 BTUs per passenger mile. In 1995, after opening the light-rail line, average bus loads declined to less than 7 and energy consumption by bus and light rail together increased to 5,300 BTUs per passenger mile. CO2 emissions also climbed, from 0.75 pounds to 0.88 pounds per passenger mile.

Third, MetroLink’s revenues add up to less than its expenses, and an expansion would exacerbate this deficit:

The transportation plan for St. Louis […] notes that the transit agency’s projected revenues could not even cover its operating costs, much less the cost of light-rail expansion. The plan adds that county voters rejected a tax increase needed to support transit operations and that, even with that tax, the agency’s revenues would be insufficient to support the proposed expansions.

O’Toole has written several pieces on the subject of high-speed rail for the Show-Me Institute. His most recent study for the Show-Me Institute, “Why Missouri Taxpayers Should Not Build High-Speed Rail,” was published in September.

Adding New MetroLink Lines Too Costly, Inefficient

Posted on by John Payne

It is odd to hear serious discussion of expanding MetroLink when the Metro system faces a $50 million shortfall and has been forced to cut back on existing services. Nevertheless, Metro is pressing ahead with a plan to expand services dramatically in the long term, including new light rail lines that would span Saint Louis city from north to south and reach all the way to Interstate 270 at four different points. Although the expansions would no doubt benefit some commuters, they would also prove exorbitantly expensive and likely attract few new riders. Rather than planning fanciful new light rail lines, Metro should implement more fiscally sound solutions to the area’s mass transit woes, such as expanded and improved bus service.

When Metro began planning the Cross-County MetroLink Extension in November 2001, it projected the cost at $550 million, with $43 million included for contingencies. However, according to a state auditor’s report in 2008, by that point the expansion had already cost $676.8 million, with total expenses expected to reach as high as $686 million. Although some of these extra costs were unique to the project — such as the extraordinary expense of building rail lines underground near Washington University — government projects are incessantly dogged by these kinds of unexpected expenses. It would be nearly miraculous if such a large undertaking as the proposed expansion were completed on budget.

Furthermore, the expanded lines will likely have lower rates of ridership than those serving the central city. In his groundbreaking 2005 book Sprawl, the historian Robert Bruegmann estimated that in order for public transportation to be used extensively, a city needs a population density of at least 10,000 people per square mile. Saint Louis city is well below that mark, with fewer than 6,000 people per square mile, but at least at this density, the MetroLink can operate at a manageable loss. Saint Louis County is barely a third as dense as Saint Louis city, at 1,950 people per square mile. With ridership levels roughly correlating with population density, we can expect to see far fewer passengers on the new lines than those serving the central city. This will force down the percentage of Metro’s operating expenses paid through fares, which already stands at a dismally low 25 percent, according to the auditor’s report, and will increase the system’s dependence on tax dollars.

In the heyday of urban Saint Louis in the 1920s through the early 1950s, the city boasted an impressive network of streetcars that ran all the way from downtown to Clayton and Washington University. The city was still very densely packed — almost 13,000 people per square mile at its height — so the streetcars provided an efficient means of getting around, and the system even turned a profit most years. However, as every level of government called for the construction of an increasing number of parkways and highways, the population of the city spread into the suburbs, and private automobiles and buses replaced the streetcar. It might be possible to make convincing counterfactual arguments that the political and business leaders of the past should have pursued a more balanced approach to transportation, instead of one that focused almost entirely on automobiles. Regardless of the virtue of those decisions, however, we must now live with the city and infrastructure that they left us, and no matter how much money is poured into new light rail lines, the population densities necessary to support them are not coming back.

The question then becomes: What is the best method of serving the transportation needs of area residents, given area dynamics as they already exist? Light rail suffers from high construction and maintenance expenses without the flexibility of automobiles or buses. Light rail is well-suited as a method of transport for traveling to large attractions such as Busch Stadium and the airport, but it will never be able to serve efficiently the multitude of smaller locations found throughout such a sprawling metropolitan area as Saint Louis. We would obtain a much greater benefit at a significantly lower cost if we instead focused our public transportation dollars on new, higher-speed bus lines, which are cheaper and far more adaptable than light rail. Although the expansion of light rail into every reach of suburbia may promise an end to traffic congestion and the revitalization of the city, it will ultimately entail spending huge amounts of money in order to transport far fewer additional passengers than are served by the lines already in existence.

John Payne is a research assistant at the Show-Me Institute, a Missouri-based think tank.

 

NorthSide Trial on Tuesday

Posted on by Audrey Spalding
NorthSide Map
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Interactive NorthSide Map
Interactive NorthSide Map

Another round of challenges to the $8.1 billion development of the city of Saint Louis’ north side will be heard in court tomorrow.

If you’re about to skip reading this post because the word “development” seems boring, hold on a moment. The project, put forward by developer Paul McKee, is contentious because it’s enormous — about two square miles — and because it has been approved for a large amount of public financing. McKee has asked for about $380 million in city tax increment financing (TIF), received approval for more than half, and will likely receive the rest in a few years. In late December, the state granted the development company, NorthSide Regeneration LLC, more than $19 million in tax credits (which can be used dollar-for-dollar to pay off taxes). Interestingly, the Department of Economic Development did not issue a press release, which it generally does when it issues tax credits.

One of the issues that will likely be raised at trial tomorrow is whether NorthSide unfairly characterized the area as being blighted. In its TIF application, NorthSide submitted a blighting study that systematically categorized more than 4,600 properties within the redevelopment boundary as being blighted. Along with its classification of properties as blighted for being dilapidated, unsafe, or unsanitary, the company also included blighting factors for properties with excessive vegetation, properties that had neither increased or declined in assessed value between 2003 and 2005, and properties with an increase in assessed value that totaled less than the city average from 2003 to 2008.

Another issue that could be raised at trial is that of eminent domain. McKee, along with the city aldermen who backed the project and pretty much every other public proponent of the project, have sworn repeatedly that eminent domain will not be used on owner-occupied property. What that means for the fate of non-owner-occupied properties within the boundary is less than clear.

Publicly available court documents also reveal some interesting details:

  • NorthSide is curious about how the plaintiffs’ court costs are being financed, and requested that Sheryl Nelson and Elke McIntosh (two of the plaintiffs) reveal how they’re paying for litigation. Judge Robert Dierker did not grant the request.

  • Both sides have taken deposition from Michele Boldrin, an economics professor at Washington University.

  • NorthSide submitted a letter of interest from the Bank of Washington (in Missouri) as evidence of financial backing of the development. However, NorthSide has not submitted evidence of a contract with the bank, which has less than $800 million in total assets.

  • According to NorthSide’s application for state tax credits, the company has spent about $25 million to purchase property in the redevelopment area.

The trial will start at 11 a.m. in Division 18 of the city’s Circuit Court. Judge Dierker, who quoted economist F.A. Hayek when rejecting the plaintiff’s request for a preliminary injunction, will hear the case. You can read that ruling here.

Ridiculous Licensing Proposal in St. Louis

Posted on by David Stokes

You knew this was going to happen sooner or later. Ten years ago, when HVAC contractors in St. Louis County succeeded in significantly increasing the licensing requirements for HVAC work in a way that would benefit union firms and workers, they focused on the commercial aspect of the work and left out the residential work. The naked power grab for commercial work was enough for them in 2000, and the political price they paid prevented them from reaching for any more, until now.

If you are not familiar with the story of how the pipefitters union and their allied contractors tried to knock non-union contractors out of the HVAC business 10 years ago, then you just have to read this awesome Riverfront Times story about the pipefitters plan. To paraphrase Berkely Breathed’s comment about how Caspar Weinberger’s poetic request to him provided a template for how to “get something from someone who is not inclined to give it to you,” if you are interested in knowing the real reasons that occupational licensing laws are passed, “all you need to know is here.”

Needless to say, the proposal for new restrictions on HVAC contractors is a sick twist on capitalism. It is just a joke to hear that the supporters of licensing requirements for residential work are once again promoting their arguments as increasing “safety.” As my friend, “D” (I’ll err on the side of caution and not use his name — he can claim credit in the comment section if he so chooses), who sent me the link to the Post-Dispatch article, said:

Isn’t the more likely story that the bad economy has created a greater incentive for established contractors to try to protect their territory by establishing barriers to entry?

My friend has hit the true story on the head. It would be shameful if this were passed by the various local governments to which the proposal is being brought. I hope to be a part of the fight against it.

The Will of the People, Revisited

Posted on by Dave Roland

Today, I’m going to Jefferson City to testify on bills related to the initiative and referendum powers that the Missouri Constitution secures to this state’s citizens.  One of the points that I hope to make plain is related to an article that ran last week on the Kansas City Star‘s Prime Buzz blog, which quoted the president of the Greater Kansas City AFL-CIO as saying that the organization would work to prevent citizens from being able to vote on whether Kansas City or St. Louis should replace their earnings taxes, claiming, “This is not the will of the citizens.”

The irony, of course, is that nothing demonstrates “the will of the citizens” more than, say, letting them vote for themselves!

This is yet another example of a problem I have noted several times before: Powerful interests can (and do) game the system to prevent Missouri citizens from voting on issues of great importance. The most prominent example is the way that the Missouri Municipal League has for years been engaging in litigation strategically calculated to keep eminent domain reform off of the ballot. The most damning element, in my mind, is that at least in the case of the Missouri Municipal League, the opponents acknowledge the virtual certainty that eminent domain reform would be approved if the citizens were allowed to vote on it.

If an organization or some other group of citizens is concerned about the wisdom of any given ballot initiative, they are well within their rights to communicate their concerns to voters and to try to persuade Missourians not to approve the proposition. But to manipulate the system in such a way that citizens are denied the opportunity to adopt what they believe to be valuable changes to their laws is reprehensible.

Judge Suggests That Missouri Should Be Run Like a Business

Posted on by Alyssa Curran

Last week, Judge William Price, the chief justice of the Missouri Supreme Court, delivered the State of the Judiciary address. He made one thing clear: The judiciary is tasked to protect the people of the state, but they cannot carry out this commitment successfully without sufficient resources. Missouri’s essential government services must be carried out even in the worst of economic times. The Missouri judiciary is doing its part to be fiscally responsible, returning millions of dollars of appropriated funds even though their own budgets are tight. They feel the same economic pressure that other government agencies are experiencing, but they are making an attempt to keep the interest of the public at the forefront.

We have all undoubtedly felt overworked and underpaid, and during a recession, the proportion of the labor force feeling this way has surely increased. As Judge Price pointed out, those who make some of the most important decisions throughout the entire criminal justice system — state prosecutors — are being spread thin. This is a worrying state of affairs if we want prosecutors to make well-considered decisions. People work better when they are happier — it’s as simple as that.

One of the most pressing issues mentioned in Judge Price’s address is the state’s overspending on the incarceration of nonviolent criminals, something that Show-Me Institute research assistant John Payne mentioned in an earlier blog post. This is a situation resulting from too many restrictive laws that have resulted in the criminalization of nonviolent offenses, such as transactions involving drugs, alcohol, and even prostitution. Regardless of how one feels about the morality of such activities, it’s hard to justify expending so many resources on their prosecution when the core functions of the judicial system — protecting life, liberty, and property from actual direct, measurable harm — is suffering from a lack of resources.

Too many people are being arrested and tried for crimes that have no complaining victim. As Reason editor Radley Balko has observed, “Because there is almost never a complaining victim in vice crimes, law enforcement officers must go to extraordinary lengths to investigate and prosecute these crimes. This leads to all sorts of other problems, including invasions of privacy, entrapment, and police corruption.” The situation has also led to inconsistency in prosecution throughout Missouri. The toughest counties are prosecuting five times as many offenders as the most lenient counties.

Judge Price has has offered a rather convincing reason to change these policies, and to decrease the rate of prosecution and incarceration of nonviolent criminals — because we can’t pay for it. What’s even more convincing is that we cannot afford to pay for the proper treatment and rehabilitation for these offenders. Price outlines how poorly the system treats people who haven’t directly harmed anybody else, by tearing them from their lives, throwing them in a “concrete box with very expensive guards, feeding them, providing them with expensive medical care, surrounding them with hardened criminals for long periods of time, and separating them from their families who need them and could otherwise help them[.]” What’s worse, while in prison, some of them are being trained by full-fledged violent criminals on how to further divide themselves from mainstream society. These people are also citizens, and deserve to be given a chance to reintegrate into society.

Price provides some sobering numbers:

In 1994, shortly after I came to the Court, the number of nonviolent offenders in Missouri prisons was 7,461. Today it’s 14,204. That’s almost double. In 1994, the number of new commitments for nonviolent offenses was 4,857. Last year, it was 7,220 — again, almost double. At a rate of $16,432 per offender, we currently are spending $233.4 million a year to incarcerate nonviolent offenders … not counting the investment in the 10 prisons it takes to hold these individuals at $100 million per prison. In 1994, appropriations to the Department of Corrections totaled $216,753,472. Today, it’s $670,079,452. The amount has tripled. And the recidivism rate for these individuals, who are returned to prison within just two years, is 41.6 percent.

Price observes that if the state government were run like a business, these wasteful practices would have been done away with years ago. “Business” may not be the most convincing metaphor to use, because one of the classic economic justifications of government action, particularly the justice system, is that public goods are not optimally provided by markets. Some economists, however, have suggested that many aspects of government action that are commonly justified in terms of their status as public goods, including some within the justice system, can’t correctly be considered public goods:

The standard economics approach to delineating the optimal set of the state’s functions is unsatisfactory.2 In particular, when economists such as Joseph Stiglitz (1988: 24) indicate that “a primary role of government” is to provide the legal framework “within which all economic transactions occur,” not much is said about the desired content of the laws, and how it might affect the desirability or efficiency of their enforcement. Besides, there is typically no mention of nonstate enforcement mechanisms and their relationship to those of the state. The impression is created that all conflict resolution in economic life is in the unavoidable domain of the state. That impression is in contrast with the empirical evidence (see, e.g., Greif 1997, Gow and Swinnen 2001, and Waldmeir 2001).

This confusion is related to the use that is made of the concept of public goods as being nonrival in consumption and nonexclusive (Samuelson 1954: 387–89). If these goods are to be provided at all, taxes and the related state’s coercion are necessary. However, which goods are truly public? Is the justice system the domain of the state because the relevant services are a public good? Clearly, that cannot be said of all such services. Then, which “justice services” constitute a public good? Is the lighthouse, the favorite textbook example of a public good, a public good? Ronald Coase (1974) has shown that lighthouses in 19th century Britain were operated and financed privately. This finding, however, has not prevented the lighthouse to continue serving as the primary example of a public good in many textbooks (e.g., Stiglitz 1988: 75).

There may be fewer public goods in real life than typically assumed. As a result, the necessary (or desirable) scope of the state’s activity may be narrower, too. Some of the goods declared “public” may in fact be private goods, pushed into the state’s domain by public intervention that has eliminated or undercut the possibility of voluntary private financing of these goods. In other words, some uses of the theoretical concept of public goods may inadvertently constitute ex post justifications for the results of previous expansion of state activity.

Judge Price is not an economist, but by questioning whether the routine prosecution and incarceration of nonviolent offenders for committing consensual crimes actually provides more value than cost for the people of Missouri, this may well be the type of argument he was trying to make, using different terminology. Price is suggesting that it’s time for a more thorough analysis of which interests are truly being served by prosecuting many types of nonviolent offenders, and whether such prosecution actually provides results that could be considered a public good. His address doesn’t contain all the answers, but it’s the starting point for a worthy debate.

In times of fiscal crisis, it sometimes becomes necessary to embark upon a new policy path, and welcome changes that we might otherwise avoid. Whether Judge Price’s recommendations are inspired by a concern for justice or for more practical financial reasons, this would be a positive step for the government to take. The judiciary appears to be willing to do its part in order to withstand the jolts of the recession, but are the other branches of government also up to the task?

Is the Federal Stimulus Benefiting Missouri at the Expense of Wisconsin?

Posted on by Christine Harbin

The editorial board at my hometown newspaper, the La Crosse Tribune, is critical of the way that federal stimulus funds are being spent in Wisconsin. An editorial published yesterday, “They’re feeling the stimulus … in Missouri,” laments that public works projects in western Wisconsin are being awarded to out-of-state contractors instead of to local ones.

So here’s a scenario that’s a result of force-feeding the U.S. economy through the tube of federal agencies: While $12.5 million in stimulus money will fund projects on French Island and Brice Prairie, projects that local contractors say they could handle, only a handful of out-of-state firms are allowed to bid them.

In one case, a Kansas City, Mo., company got the nod to build a $6.1 million district office on French Island for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. And only three firms, all out of state – one them a Missouri-based subsidiary of an Australian steel company – are in the running to handle two projects at the Upper Mississippi Environmental Sciences Center.

It’s rare that I read an article that interests me on a both a biographical and a public policy level. Initially, I feel compelled to pick sides — but which should I support: the state in which I lived for 20 years or the state in which I live presently? Ultimately, I must decide that my conflict of interest is false, because I disagree that the subject of the editorial is even an issue.

The purpose of the fiscal stimulus was to incite economic recovery on a national level, not for certain states on an individual level. Therefore, the La Crosse Tribune shouldn’t lament the fact that a project wasn’t awarded to a Wisconsin-based firm — instead, it should celebrate the fact it went to an American firm. Furthermore, federal money comes from taxpayers in all states, not just those who live in Wisconsin or in Missouri. State officials and residents shouldn’t feel that their companies are entitled to federal stimulus money simply because a project lies within its borders.

States win and lose business from each other all the time in response to supply and demand — this is the beauty of the interstate trade. Wisconsin lost at least one free-market research analyst to Missouri in the last year, along with other business, but the editorial board at the La Crosse Tribune didn’t write about that. Why, then, does it bring this particular project to light? There are probably many public works projects in Missouri that are bid on by out-of-state vendors, perhaps even from Wisconsin.

As some readers point out in the comment section, awarding the project to a Missouri-based firm may not result in as many lost jobs for Wisconsin individuals and families as suggested in the article. This is because the Missouri firm could use local laborers, including perhaps the employees of the Wisconsin-based firms that were outbid.

The practice of soliciting bids from many contractors, regardless of their origin, is very good because it encourages competition and its positive consequences. If many contractors bid for a single public works project, it drives down cost and taxpayers get more for their money.

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