Déjà Vu

On Friday’s CBS “Early Show,” I saw a segment about a new government program that offers consumers cash rebates to replace their energy-inefficient appliances with new Energy Star–rated ones — “Cash for Appliances,” if you will. Sound familiar? Just like “Cash for Clunkers,” this program probably won’t increase the volume of sales significantly, but rather just shift the timing of these sales forward.

Some argue that this shift is the type of “stimulus” that the economy needs; after all, the money for this program was allocated from last year’s stimulus package. But will the effect of this program be worth the $300 million in taxpayer money that is being spent to finance it? I know “million” doesn’t sound like a big number anymore, with all of the billions and trillions being thrown around lately, but $300 million is still a lot of money — other people’s money. Using tax dollars to help people buy more energy-efficient machines is likely an inefficient use of funds, because purchases of these machines will become much more common within the next few years anyway, as older machines start to die. The fact that people can save money on energy costs by upgrading their appliances is already a significant incentive.

Each state has its own program, and Missouri has allotted $5.6 million in federal funding. The program will start on April 19 to coincide with the annual Show-Me Green sales tax holiday. If the funding only lasts for one day, which is likely given that Iowa’s $2.7 million ran out by 3 p.m. on the first day, no sales tax revenue would be generated. So, what genuine benefit will this expenditure have for our state? It will not add to the net state wealth, but is instead a mere transfer. Any benefit to appliance retailers will likely be very short-lived, and any arguable benefit to the state economy will be small at best. And, all the while, taxpayers will be able to watch their hard-earned money disappear down the drain into another ill-advised government program.

The Economic Case for Citizen Oversight of the Board of Police Commissioners

 

This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon.

Many believe that Missouri, and Saint Louis in particular, has been slow to catch up to modern times. The Board of Police Commissioners for the Saint Louis Metropolitan Police Department reflects that conviction all too well.

The recent flap over the questionable actions of the police commissioner seems, to an outsider, like a tempest in a teapot. He probably should not have made that now-infamous call, but he did. As a result, he has given up his claim to the title of colonel. The incident should raise concern, however, over how the board is chosen and to whom it answers.

The police board of Saint Louis was established in 1861. Conflicting sentiments of the state and city governments over the slavery issue led to the creation of a state agency — the board of commissioners — to oversee the Saint Louis (and Kansas City) police force. Because Saint Louis had a huge arsenal and was an important hub for transportation and a potentially important military location, the pro-Southern state government wanted to ensure control over the police force in a more pro-union city.

Such statutes were not uncommon across the country — similar laws were passed in New York and Maryland, for example. But only Missouri retained this model of oversight for cities the size of Saint Louis. Why?

Members of the board are appointed by the governor to serve four-year terms. Supporters of the status quo argue that this selection process creates checks and balances. Because they are not beholden to the local political machine, the board is, in theory, better able to make decisions for the benefit of Saint Louis residents.

Economists think about such organizational structures. In the realm of corporate governance, the “principal-agent” problem has been used to explain why some corporate boards are able to engage in questionable, sometimes illegal, activity. In a corporation, management is the agent for the principal — in this case the owners of the firm, usually its stockholders. The large modern corporation often is run by a management team whose decisions are largely immune from shareholder interference. Unless they can effectively concentrate their power, shareholders exert little control.

The events of the past decade have showcased the problems that arise when there is separation of ownership and control. Executive decisions made at Enron, Tyco, and more recently Lehman Brothers and General Motors highlight the potential damage wrought by such lack of oversight.

Who is the principal when it comes to local police activity? The citizens of Saint Louis. And the agent? The agent is the board, but they are separated from the citizens because they answer only to the governor. In other words, unless city residents can collectively sway the governor, the police board can operate in a manner that is immune to their wishes and concerns.

Do I think that the board is deaf to local concerns? No. But the current structure gives rise to potential problems, problems that have arisen in corporations when ownership and control are separated.

Some argue that putting the police board under the control of city hall will increase its politicization, make it part of the local political machine.

Two observations: First, its current organization does not shelter it from political pressure; it merely lengthens the physical distance between the principals and the agent. Second, making the police board answerable to local elected officials reduces the separation of ownership and control. When something goes wrong, there is a local individual, ultimately the mayor, who must bear the brunt of blame. The mayor faces a referendum on his management in every election, so the public’s voice is heard.

Let Saint Louis enter the 20th century: Return control of the police board to the citizens of the city.

Rik W. Hafer is distinguished research professor and chair of the Department of Economics and Finance at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville and a scholar at the Show-Me Institute.

 

Counting the Smallest Towns’ Residents

This AP story is one of the most enjoyable articles about the Census I’ve ever read. It explores how residents of very small towns respond to inaccuracies in Census tallies.

Many reports about the Census (like the Springfield News-Leader article I wrote about) stress the connection between Census data and funding for government programs. They include quotes anticipating dire things if participation is low and funding falls short. From this point of view, the larger the total the Census Bureau arrives at for your area’s population, the better.

What sets the AP’s article apart is that the people quoted in it are focused on accuracy. Whether the Census records eight or nine residents in a town doesn’t change federal appropriations. The difference matters only to people who want the numbers to be exactly correct, for truth’s sake. One woman is actually quoted complaining that the Census Bureau states there are two residents in her town, when in fact she alone lives there. I haven’t seen any other calls for the Bureau to revise its numbers downward.

Looking at Mid-Year Budgetary Shortfall and Income Tax Rates

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report last week about state budget shortfalls, “Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets; State Responses Could Slow Recovery.” (Link via an article on the Wall Street Journal: Real Time Economics blog).

This made me wonder the the following: Are income taxes correlated with a higher mid-year budget gap as a percent of the FY2010 General Fund Budget? Do states that have no income tax have a lower incidence of mid-year budgetary shortfall?

In an attempt to answer this, I took Table 1 from the CPP report, and added the states that do not have a budget shortfall (Alaska, Delaware, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Wisconsin) and those that have a surplus (Montana and North Dakota). I sorted this table by the percentage of budget gap over the 2010 general fund budget. Next, I added the top marginal tax rates for personal and corporate income for each state. The green cells indicate states that assess zero income tax, and the red cells indicate states that have income tax rates of  9.0 percent or greater.

Projected Mid-Year FY2010 Budget Gaps as a Percentage of FY2010 Fiscal Budget by State

(Modified to Include Income Tax Rates and States With Zero Shortfall)

sorted_graph

* Washington is reflected low in the list because the amount shown is for the two-year budget, ending in FY2011.

The states that have no income tax are disproportionately aggregated at the top of the list. This graph indicates that states without an income tax may be better at predicting their revenues in the future. I can think of a few reasons why this is, and I invite our blog readers to suggest additional reasons in the comments.

  • Sales taxes are a less volatile source of revenue than income taxes.
  • Income taxes are closely tied to the job market, and sales taxes are not. When a person loses her job, she then has zero earned income, and therefore generates zero income tax revenue for the state. During this period of unemployment, however, she continues to make purchases and pay sales taxes (either by using personal financial reserves or unemployment compensation).
  • Sales taxes are more effective than income taxes in addressing budget shortfalls more immediately, because they are collected at the point of transaction. Income taxes, in contrast, are collected only once per year. States do not have to wait until residents file their income taxes in order to collect revenue.

Notice that Missouri is ranked 37. This means that 36 other states were able to forecast their budgets better than Missouri. Perhaps if Missouri repealed its income tax in favor of a broad-based sales tax, it could predict its revenues better, and it wouldn’t face such a shortfall in the future.

Turn On, Tune In, Drop By

Sorry for the late notice, but two Show-Me Institute staffers will be making appearances later today — one on the radio, and one in person.

Research assistant John Payne will be a guest on the Freeman Bosely Jr. morning show on KATZ 1600 AM, once again talking about the St. Louis–area Metro transit system. His segment is scheduled to start somewhere between 11:00 and 11:15 a.m. If you want to listen but are not in St. Louis (or don’t have a radio), you can listen online at www.gospel1600.com. You can also read John’s op-ed about MetroLink expansion and watch his recent appearance on Fox 2 news.

Also today, policy analyst Dave Roland will be the keynote speaker at the Missouri Libertarian Party Convention in Jefferson City! He’ll be speaking about the importance of capturing the hearts and minds of Missourians in our efforts to spread the ideas of liberty and take practical steps toward increased freedom. The Show-Me Institute doesn’t engage in electoral politics, but we’re always happy to share our ideas with others — so, Democrats, Republicans, Greens, what have you, be sure to let us know when you’d like us to speak at your events, as well. We’d love to talk to you.

Ensuring Unemployment

The state of Missouri has extended unemployment benefits for up to 20 weeks. This is undoubtedly a temporary boon to the people who receive the benefits, but it can only hurt the economy. In particular, it will cause more people to stay unemployed longer. A fundamental rule of economics is that if you subsidize something, you will get more of it, and unemployment is no exception.

You might be tempted to dismiss that idea as little more than armchair theorizing, but there are solid numbers to back it up. For instance, take this blog post from University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan about unemployment in Pittsburgh from 1980–1985:

Unemployment rates got quite high in Pittsburgh in those days, reaching 16 percent at one point, and staying over 10 percent for two and a half years. The chart below shows some of the results. It graphs weeks from unemployment benefit exhaustion against the fraction of unemploy[ed] people either finding a new job or being recalled to a previous job in that week. “Exhaustion” refers to the time when benefits cease being paid to the unemployed person, regardless of whether they have found a job.

Almost no one started working during the 2-3 weeks prior to the exhaustion of their unemployment benefits (weeks “-3” and “-2” in the chart). Miraculously, more than one quarter started work a week later (19% started a new job, 10% returned to a previous job). Economists agree that a huge reason for this behavior is that people are more willing to remain unemployed when unemployment itself generates a paycheck. (The job they take may not be great, but the data show that often there is a job to take).

If incentives mattered in Pittsburgh in the early 1980s, why wouldn’t they matter in the United States today? Or why did employment increase almost 1,000,000 last summer?

Not only would this decision cause more unemployment in Missouri, it would also further stretch an already overextended budget. It’s a bad idea all around.

(Casey Mulligan link via Marginal Revolution.)

More Rent Seeking ? National Style

Rent seeking has been a major topic around here recently. I don’t need to provide links — if you’re reading this on the main page of the blog, you can just scroll down a bit for some excellent posts. Now we are going to do a little bit more rent seeking as a nation, by charging international visitors without visas (I guess this means residents of Windsor going to Detroit for a Red Wings game) a new $10 fee that will be used to market the United States internationally. Basically, it will be a national version of what just about every city (including St. Louis and [probably] Kansas City) does with hotel taxes: charge an extra fee and use it to promote the local travel industry. I think we can admit that there are plenty of worse examples of rent seeking than this, but it still entails private enterprise using the government and taxation in order to benefit one sector of the economy at someone else’s expense. (It makes it a lot easier to do this if the expense is borne by someone who does not live here.)

Now, I want to get into their numbers:

The association says the U.S. welcomed 2.4 million fewer overseas visitors last year than in 2000. And that, the group says, has cost it an estimated $509 billion in total spending and $32 billion in direct tax receipts.

We can presume that 2.4 million is for one year, and $509 billion is for 10 years. Taking 2.4 million a year for 10 years, and dividing that into the total spending amount, yields an average amount spent per visitor of just more than $21,000. This article states that the average spending per visitor is $4,500. I don’t think I believe the number put out with the bill signing, but the alternative would be to accuse the PR and lobbying group behind this effort of inflating their numbers. And we all know that would never happen. …

The Lesson Applied to Film Production Incentives

In the beginning of Economics in One Lesson, Henry Hazlitt describes classic rent-seeking behavior:

While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.

To see this lesson applied, check out the personal blog of Jason P. Hunt, a film and television producer in Kansas City. He uses it to voice support for H.B. 1587, which would increase the cap of film production tax rebates from $4.5 million to $10 million. Although I’m getting bored of blogging about the production incentives program in Missouri, I want to refute the specific points that Hunt made in his most recent post, “An Open Letter to the Missouri Senate”:

I understand several in the legislative branch would question why we need to increase this cap.

I question this, too, especially since only one single production in Missouri has ever come close to the $4.5 million cap during the last 10 years. (That production was Up in the Air, which was awarded $4.13 million.) The second-highest amount ever awarded was $786,800. The “Show Me: Tax Credits” web tool shows that the average amount awarded is only $369,347.

I suppose Hunt’s implicit argument is that glamorous, large-scale productions won’t be motivated to film in Missouri unless the state coughs up even more cash. If Missouri awards more money to an activity in which it has a comparative disadvantage, it faces an increasing opportunity cost. This is money that the state could otherwise devote to other programs and/or return to the pockets of taxpayers.

Consider that for every dollar allowed as a tax credit under the program, three have to be spent within the state.

From what I understand, an economic multiplier of 3 is unrealistic. In estimating the activity generated from its film incentive program, Louisiana uses a demand earnings multiplier of 0.3982. Here’s a math problem: How much wealth do a $61,000 Range Rover and a $68,000 Mercedes generate in a state? Using Hunt’s logic, they would create $387,000 of economic activity within the state’s borders. I disagree that this is realistic.

That’s found money.

That money comes from other states. If a person is walking to her car in a parking lot and finds $20 lying on the ground, she may consider herself to be $20 richer. However, the person who dropped the $20 on the ground in the first place is $20 poorer. No wealth was generated. When a production company from another state spends $1,000 in Missouri, the money is not created out of thin air; it’s $1,000 that the company would have otherwise spent in a different state.

When states regard each other as antagonistic economies, it is a mutually detrimental situation. Targeted incentive programs result in dead-weight loss and restrict overall growth. In order to increase overall economic growth and prosperity, Missouri should focus on the activities for which it has a comparative advantage, and then trade amicably with the states that have a comparative advantage in producing films.

There’s another reason it’s a bad idea to regard this out-of-state spending as “found money”: Missouri doesn’t get to keep 100 percent of it. States that offer film production incentives get a raw deal, because they are poorer by the amount of money that they allocate in tax credits. For every $1,000 that a film production company spends in Missouri (up to the cap), the state economy only keeps $650. In other words, Missouri government pays the film company $350 for every $1,000 that it spends here. Raising the cap, as Hunt supports, would exacerbate this loss.

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