Page 38 – Show-Me Institute

Downtown St. Louis Doesn’t Need Subsidies

Posted on December 10, 2024January 13, 2026 by Patrick Tuohey

State lawmakers in Missouri are considering a $102 million tax credit program to convert empty downtown St. Louis office buildings, such as the AT&T Tower and Railway Exchange, into residential and retail spaces. Dubbed the “Revitalizing Missouri Downtowns and Main Streets Act,” the plan aims to address declining occupancy rates and boost the downtown economy by reimbursing developers for 25–30% of their conversion costs. While this sounds appealing, it’s a recycled idea that has repeatedly failed to deliver meaningful results for cities.

The proposal rests on shaky assumptions about the effectiveness of economic development subsidies. Tax credits and similar incentives have a long history of overpromising and underdelivering—even according to analyses from people supporting the projects!

These programs often enrich developers without producing significant long-term benefits for the communities footing the bill. Take, for example, the myriad subsidies for corporate headquarters and downtown stadiums in Kansas City. Despite their hefty price tags, these deals leave taxpayers shouldering higher costs with little to show for it in terms of jobs or economic growth. St. Louis risks again following the same path—throwing public money at developers while failing to address the underlying issues.

A major problem with subsidies like this is that they create a false sense of market demand. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch quotes one of the bill’s sponsors, Missouri Senator Steve Roberts, as saying, “The demand for more downtown residential is clear.” If that were true, private investors should already be stepping up. Developers should not need government support to pursue profitable opportunities.

Subsidy programs also suffer from a lack of transparency and accountability. Often, there are no robust safeguards to measure their success or clawback provisions when promises go unfulfilled. Without clear benchmarks and regular public reporting, these programs devolve into blank checks for developers.

St. Louis should focus on making the downtown area a desirable place to live by prioritizing public safety and basic city services. Addressing crime, for instance, would do far more to draw new residents and businesses than funneling public money into speculative real estate projects.

A smarter approach to revitalizing downtown St. Louis would let market forces lead the way. City leaders can play a supportive role by streamlining permitting processes and reducing regulatory barriers, making it easier for developers to pursue worthwhile projects. (There are some small, hopeful signs St. Louis is heeding this call.) At the same time, investments in public safety, infrastructure, and essential services would lay the groundwork for organic growth that benefits everyone—not just developers.

Yes, St. Louis needs more residents. Yes, increasing the downtown population would have all sorts of positive economic effects. But right now, too few people want to live there, and nothing will work until that changes first.

Missouri’s Accountability Crisis, Ghost Students and Tax Hikes

Posted on December 10, 2024January 13, 2026 by James V. Shuls

James Shuls, David Stokes, and Avery Frank join Zach Lawhorn to discuss what the latest test scores reveal about Missouri schools, the debate over a four-day school week as a budget solution, Town and Country’s controversial property tax increase, opposition to a comprehensive plan in Cole Camp, and more.

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Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

The Four-Day School Week and Finances

Posted on December 9, 2024January 13, 2026 by Avery Frank

Missouri’s continuous decline in public school enrollment and the drying up of federal COVID funds have left school districts across the state grappling with budget fears. The reality of losing “ghost students” (districts relying on their highest enrollment figures from the past four years) has become increasingly apparent as enrollment continues to decline. Some districts, such as Fox C-6 in Jefferson County, are considering turning to a four-day school week (4dsw) as a potential solution.

However, there is little evidence that the 4dsw is the answer to financial woes.

A year ago, my colleague James Shuls and I published a systematic literature review of the most rigorous studies that evaluated the effect of the 4dsw on student achievement, district finances, teacher retention and recruitment, and parental satisfaction. We found that the 4dsw has a small, negative effect on student achievement. We also found that a 4dsw may decrease expenditures, but it also decreases revenue. The full paper can be found here.

At first glance, it may not make sense how a district would not see significant cost savings from a 4dsw—but the cost and revenue structure of districts is key.

A large majority of costs are tied up in stable salaries and fixed expenses, which remain largely unchanged regardless of the calendar structure. Therefore, savings that can be realized are related to variable costs, like food service, transportation, and electricity for school buildings.

While districts can reduce costs by scaling back these variable services, many of these services also have associated revenue streams. For example, with a 4dsw, there are fewer lunches served, but at the same time, there are also fewer lunches paid for—either by students or the federal government. The reduction in costs is often mirrored by a comparable reduction in revenue.

As districts evaluate their budgets during this time, they should focus on addressing unnecessary structural costs. A switch to a 4dsw should not be made to save money unless a district has gone through the hard work of documenting that it will actually see significant savings.

Public Education in Missouri Is Shrinking

Posted on December 6, 2024January 13, 2026 by Susan Pendergrass

Since its peak in 2007, Missouri’s public school enrollment has dropped by about 40,000 students. Analyses of trends in private school enrollment and homeschooling in the state suggest that about half of those students switched to a non-public school option. The other half? They weren’t born.

The size of Missouri’s kindergarten classes is getting smaller. The birth rate peaked in the state in 2008. Five years later, kindergarten enrollment in the state peaked at nearly 72,000 children. Since then it has steadily declined and total kindergarten enrollment is down by 10,000 students. The chart below illustrates the decline:

Missouri Public Schools Kindergarten Enrollment

It doesn’t take a demographer to see where total enrollment is going. Ultimately, every public school grade will be down by at least 10,000 students—which is a total of 130,000 from peak enrollment in the state.

There will no doubt be handwringing about teacher layoffs, school closings, and consolidation. But anyone who had been paying attention could have planned for this. We’ve had a decade to adjust our perspective.

A Blueprint for Missouri in 2025

Posted on December 5, 2024January 13, 2026 by Show-Me Institute Staff

Download the full 2025 Blueprint here

In this episode, Susan Pendergrass, James Shuls, Elias Tsapelas, Aaron Hedlund, David Stokes, Patrick Tuohey, and Avery Frank join Zach Lawhorn to discuss The 2025 Blueprint: Moving Missouri Forward. They discuss topics like statewide school choice, income tax reform, local government transparency, Missouri’s Taxpayer Bill of Rights, nuclear energy policy, and more.

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About The 2025 Blueprint:

The Show-Me Institute’s mission is to advance liberty with individual responsibility by promoting market solutions for Missouri public policy. Our vision is for Missouri to be a place where entrepreneurs can pursue their dreams, parents are free to direct the education and upbringing of their children, and a growing economy provides opportunities for all. Critical to achieving this vision is a state government that understands the value of freedom in the lives and future of our people.

The 2025 Blueprint: Moving Missouri Forward explores 17 policy areas in which common-sense reform could immediately and positively impact everyday life for Missourians. Issues covered range from education and healthcare to unemployment insurance and budget reform. Each article identifies a problem that affects the citizens of our state, provides background information and analysis, proposes one or more solutions, and then boils the solutions down into actionable recommendations. We believe that the proposals our policy team has assembled can put Missouri on the path to a healthier economy, a better public education system, and a more vibrant and flourishing civil society.

Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

Absurd Light Rail Project Marches Onward

Posted on December 5, 2024January 13, 2026 by David Stokes

Metro is hosting a series of public meetings on its proposed new light rail line in St. Louis. Now called the “Green Line”—formerly called the north–south route—the proposed new line along Jefferson Avenue up and down St. Louis is as useless as it is expensive.

The “Green Line” is dependent on approximately $600 million in federal funds; funds I hope it doesn’t get. I suggest that cutting the national debt can start right here. As national politics affects local policy, I am hopeful that upcoming changes to federal policy will be the death of this plan. Indeed, some key voices, including Les Sterman, the past director of the East-West Gateway Council of Government, have recently called for the project to stop.

In 2004, MetroLink planners predicted there would be 80,000 boardings per day on MetroLink trains by 2025 in St. Louis, Missouri (that number excludes Illinois users). In the first quarter of 2024, there were about 18,800 actual boardings per weekday for the entire system, including Illinois (page 23 in link). (Ridership goes up slightly in the summer with baseball games, but not that much this summer, for obvious reasons.) We can just admit that MetroLink usage has been substantially less than projected. St. Louis should focus on serving the existing system as best it can instead of doubling down on failure with this latest expansion fantasy.

The “Green Line” plan only projects 5,000 boardings per day, at best. Even if that turned out to be accurate—and history suggests it won’t be—that is a very low number. Serving about 2,500 people per day (one person equals two boardings, on average) for over $1 billion is a terrible use of tax dollars. This project should not move forward.

Kansas City and St. Louis Road Quality

Posted on December 4, 2024January 13, 2026 by Patrick Tuohey

Our roads are crucial for commerce, safety, and daily life. Yet the state’s extensive road network presents challenges that have lingered for years. The Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT) oversees approximately 34,000 miles of highways, making it one of the most extensive state-maintained systems in the nation. This vast responsibility is coupled with a perpetual struggle for adequate funding and consistent maintenance.

Missouri’s roads are often a mixed bag. Urban areas, such as Kansas City and St. Louis, face heavy traffic loads that strain infrastructure, while rural areas contend with neglect stemming from budget limitations. Harsh weather conditions further exacerbate the wear and tear, leaving many roads riddled with potholes and cracks. Rural highways critical for agriculture and trade can quickly deteriorate without sustained investment.

A recent post by the blog Construction Physics contained a chart depicting the road quality of the top 19 cities. It depicts the percentage of non-interstate roads at different quality levels, measured by the International Roughness Index (IRI) and tabulated by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). I’ve added St. Louis and Kansas City for comparison using the same scoring system.

Missouri’s interstates, whose standards and funding largely come from the federal government, rank 15th out of 50th according to the IRI score. But our non-interstate roads rank 32nd, behind our neighboring state of Kansas (1st) but well ahead of Illinois (37th). Kansas has earned a reputation for relatively well-maintained highways, thanks to strategic funding and regular maintenance schedules. Illinois has committed significant resources to upgrading its aging infrastructure through recent legislative initiatives.

Importantly, both Kansas and Illinois employ toll roads to fund road maintenance. Missouri should, too. Show-Me authors have written extensively on tolling and road maintenance more generally. While Missouri recently increased its gas tax, it’s too soon to know how impactful it will be.

Improving Missouri’s roads requires more than patchwork solutions. Lawmakers and transportation officials must focus on sustainable funding mechanisms, better prioritization of projects, and more efficient use of resources. Policies that balance the needs of urban centers and rural areas will be critical in ensuring that all Missourians benefit from reliable roadways.

Where Did the Report Cards Go?

Posted on December 4, 2024January 13, 2026 by Susan Pendergrass

The Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) is an agency in the executive branch that carries out the priorities of the state board of education. It aims to “ensure that all Missouri students have access to high-quality public education and are prepared for college and careers.” In its latest budget request submitted to the governor for the 2025–26 school year, DESE requested $10 billion to carry out this work.

Last week we found out that it is neglecting to carry out one of the boards’ nine “major duties,” which is accrediting local school districts. The 98 percent of school districts that were fully accredited a decade ago can count on that being unchanged for at least another couple of years.

In addition, as of this writing, DESE is no longer complying with the federal requirement that state education agencies publish state, district, and school report cards detailing student performance. DESE had a school report card web page until recently, when it disappeared with no indication of whether the report cards are being updated or ever coming back.

Both of these issues bring into question whether Missouri should be receiving over $1.6 billion in education funding from the federal government since it does not “meaningfully differentiate between schools and districts” or publish the required report cards. The board and DESE are shirking their responsibilities and yet they want $10 billion from taxpayers for the FY 2026 budget. Missourians should be highly disappointed, to say the least, in their state education leaders.

Public Schools without Boundaries with Jude Schwalbach

Posted on December 3, 2024December 16, 2025 by Susan Pendergrass

Susan Pendergrass speaks with Jude Schwalbach, policy analyst at the Reason Foundation, about his report Public Schools Without Boundaries: 2024. They discuss how open enrollment policies are reshaping K–12 education by allowing students to attend public schools outside of their assigned districts, examine why Missouri ranks poorly in supporting open enrollment, highlighting significant areas for improvement in the state, and more.

Read Jude’s full report here.

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Produced by Show-Me Opportunity