The Effects Of A Minimum Wage Increase

On Tuesday, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch published a letter from scholars at the Show-Me Institute arguing that raising the minimum wage to $10 would hurt Missouri. They write that by unilaterally raising the minimum wage, Missouri would lose jobs to other states.

Except for Illinois, where the minimum wage is $8.25 an hour, the states surrounding Missouri have a minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. Many current and future businesses in Missouri, especially those near the state’s borders, would have a large incentive to relocate to surrounding states if Missouri raises its minimum wage all the way up to $10 an hour.

One reader who responded to the letter on the Post-Dispatch website asked what the effect on jobs was when Missouri increased its minimum wage in January from $7.35 to $7.50 an hour. First, it is too early to start making judgments about the effect of the recent minimum wage hike because it is only early March. Second, even if there isn’t much of an impact with this minimum wage hike, we must consider the degree of the increase. Going from $7.35 to $7.50 an hour represents a 2 percent increase in the minimum wage. A business might be able to absorb that increased cost and not feel compelled to move. However, the proposal in question would raise the minimum wage by 33 percent.

There are only so many additional costs a business can absorb before going out of business. Do we really want to risk these businesses leaving the state and taking the jobs they provide with them for something that even proponents say is a “blunt instrument” for helping poor people?

We all want to help the poor and truly disadvantaged, but there are better ways to do it. One thing to consider would be to follow the lead of 20 other states and establish a state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) to supplement the federal one. Both David Neumark, in his Show-Me Institute policy study examining the effects of the minimum wage, and the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of federal minimum wage proposals acknowledge the EITC as a more cost-efficient way to help the working poor.

When Did You Stop Beating Your Wife? – Common Core Edition

Loaded questions are a great way of winning an argument. It puts your opponent on the defensive and frames the discussion in a way that makes it almost impossible for him or her to win. Supporters of the Common Core State Standards have used this tactic time and again. They ask, “Why don’t you like rigorous standards?”

Most recently, the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education posted a video using this tactic – “What Would You Say to a Critic of Higher Standards?” In the video, a few of Missouri’s teachers of the year answer the question. How can someone argue with them? How can you argue against higher standards?

There is just one problem, I don’t know of anyone who argues against the Common Core State Standards because they are too rigorous. In fact, most arguments against the standards call into question the quality of the standards. Take, for instance, Sandy Stotsky. She was a member of the Common Core validation team and refused to sign off on the standards.

“Everyone was willing to believe that the Common Core standards are ‘rigorous,’ ‘competitive,’ ‘internationally benchmarked,’ and ‘research-based.’ They are not,” Stotsky said.

But according to DESE, it is not possible to question the quality of the standards. What’s more, apparently we are supposed to be in awe of the standards as well. In the video, Robert Becker, the 2010-11 Missouri Teacher of the Year, says, “If you actually sit down and read them, they’re beautiful. There’s no way you could object to them. You could do nothing but admire them.”

Really?

Let’s try it out. Here are a couple of standards:

CCSS.Math.Content.1.MD.A.2 Express the length of an object as a whole number of length units, by laying multiple copies of a shorter object (the length unit) end to end; understand that the length measurement of an object is the number of same-size length units that span it with no gaps or overlaps.

CCSS.ELA-Literacy.SL.3.3 Ask and answer questions about information from a speaker, offering appropriate elaboration and detail.

Are they beautiful? Do you want to sit back and admire them?

We cannot have a serious discussion about the Common Core until proponents recognize that questions of their “rigor” and their “beauty” are debatable. Reputable scholars disagree on the matter. Instead of asking the loaded question, “Why don’t you like rigorous standards?” Common Core supporters should open up to real dialogue. They could start by asking, “Could the standards be improved?”

Kansas City Republicans’ Absurd Claims

Last Wednesday, FOX 4 News asked us our thoughts about Kansas City refusing to release details on the use of tax dollars to support the city’s bid for the 2016 Republican Convention. It mirrored a similar story that the Kansas City Star published earlier. In both, the Show-Me Institute advocated for transparency. In a city as cash-strapped as Kansas City, voters should be told where their tax dollars are being spent. One would think Republicans would agree.

FOX 4 reporter Macradee Aegerter also asked about the claims of economic development that come from such conventions. I said in the interview that such claims are speculative, the bid committee often employs the economists that make the claims, and that the real impact rarely lives up to the hype. (This segment aired in the 6 p.m. version of the story, which is not yet online.) In the segment, a member of the bid committee claimed that the convention would have an economic impact of $250,000,000. That’s a quarter-billion dollars.

We don’t believe it. (Or, perhaps more delicately, we want to verify those numbers before we believe it.)

Certainly, having such a convention in Kansas City is a good thing, and not just for the money it will bring to the area. As a matter of pride, I would love to see Kansas City host again on the 40th anniversary of our last convention. But the idea that having the convention here amounts to a net gain of $250 million is absurd, and it casts a light on how calculating the economic impact of other items is the economic equivalent of alchemy.

The host committee is likely assuming that without the convention, hotel occupancy would be zero. Spending downtown would be zero. Travel in and out of Kansas City would be zero. Then it still probably over-estimates what will be spent here because of the convention. In reality, a hotel that would have had 70 percent occupancy without the convention may have 95 percent occupancy because of the convention. One can claim the difference as “economic impact” but not all of it. But we won’t know how the committee reached the quarter-billion number until it reveals how it calculated a $250,000,000 impact. (If the committee releases the estimate and it proves to be legitimate economic analysis with a multiplier effect below two, we will gladly admit we are wrong.)

As written in the Daily Beast story about the recent Super Bowl in New Jersey:

So, there’s no economically sound way to predict a Super Bowl’s impact before the event and those that try have been proven wrong again and again. But don’t expect that to stop the cheering from the few with the most to gain. When asked for a more detailed analysis of Super Bowl XLVIII, the host committee demurred, but assured in a statement, “Super Bowl XLVIII is expected to be an economic boom [sic] for the region.”

We’re not asking the committee to reveal anything legitimately embargoed about its bid. We just want to know how the committee arrived at that estimate for the impact should the convention occur in Kansas City. Certainly, Republicans would agree that the sound economic policies they advocate require sound economic assumptions — otherwise, how are they supposed to be any more responsible with taxpayer money?

The Kansas City International Rehab Roller Coaster

The Kansas City Aviation Department often has attempted to justify its plan for a $1.2 billion terminal for Kansas City International Airport (MCI) by claiming that repairing the existing terminals would also be extremely expensive. The logic is that if both options will be expensive, the better option is a new terminal that cuts costs and brings in new revenue. We have often asked how much these repairs would cost and when they would be needed, as any comparative cost analysis requires those two pieces of information.

Perhaps in an overeager attempt to answer our questions, the Aviation Department has produced a plethora of cost estimates. In July, keeping the existing terminals supposedly was going to cost about $600 million, with little explanation of those costs. We questioned that number, stating:

KCAD has yet to release an independent analysis of the supposed $600 million improvement costs. But if history is any guide, it is inflating costs. The last renovation of MCI’s terminals took place from 2000 to 2004, and cost the airport $183.4 million . . .  The Aviation Department should explain why the new renovation would cost more than double the adjusted expense of the last.

Aside from criticizing the cost estimate, we also pointed out that it is unclear when these repairs are required.

However, by September of 2013, the price estimate of the airport increased, with a range from $645 million to $785 million. Again, we questioned the estimates, stating:

. . . as of a presentation on Sept. 10, the Aviation Department now claims the cost will be between $645 million and $785 million. A cursory inspection of these estimates prompts many questions, as the itemized repair costs are much larger than those for identical or similar items in the new terminal plan’s budget.

Again, there was no time estimate for these needed repairs.

In the last week, those estimates took a nosedive. The Aviation Department now claims that the repair costs are actually between $365 million and $460 million, a 43 percent decrease in the estimate. The department also stated those figures could be lower by a third if one of the terminals is mothballed. Of course, the estimate still prompts questions, like why the repairs to the central utility cost 25 percent more in the repair estimate than in the new terminal plan. The Aviation Department actually put a timeline on these repairs this time, to be completed in 2020. They also began discussing alternatives, such as a structure that centralizes security between the existing terminals.

The debate about the new terminal plan has already been underway for months. An Airport Terminal Advisory Group has met numerous times to make a recommendation to the Kansas City City Council. But with these new estimates, everyone will need to reconsider the cost of the new terminal plan. Moreover, the lack of consistency and transparency in the Aviation Department’s repair estimates mean no one can trust that these estimates are accurate or final.

Announcing New Case Study: Live Free and Learn

Over the course of the past year, I have spoken and written a lot about tax credit scholarships. When I do, I am often bombarded with questions. “Who would be eligible?” “How would this work?” “How much are the scholarships worth?” The questions go on and on. My response often is, “It depends.” Tax credit scholarship programs can be, and have been, designed in many different ways. Still, the Show-Me Institute wanted to give some concrete examples for Missourians to consider and to help answer some of the questions or concerns about tax credit scholarships. Therefore, we commissioned three case studies about tax credit scholarship programs in other states by some top experts. We will be releasing these case studies over the next few weeks.

Today, we are pleased to announce the release of “Live Free And Learn: A Case Study Of New Hampshire’s Scholarship Tax Credit Program,” by Jason Bedrick. Bedrick is a policy analyst at Cato Institute’s Center for Educational Freedom. Previously, he served as a legislator in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, a small state with the “fourth-largest English-speaking legislative body in the world.” After his time in office, he was instrumental in the passage of the Granite State’s tax credit scholarship program.

His paper describes the particulars of the New Hampshire scholarship program. It also provides data from the first survey of scholarship recipients. The survey indicates that most of the scholarship recipients were from low-income families. The tax credit scholarship allowed many students to attend private schools that they would not have been able to afford without the support that the program offered.

As you might imagine, parents who received a scholarship for their child tended to be very satisfied. In fact, “All of the scholarship recipients who attended a public school in the previous year reported greater satisfaction with their current school” (p. 19).

I encourage you to take a look at “Live Free And Learn.” And stay tuned for our next two tax credit scholarship case studies.

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