Census Report: St. Louis City Continues to Shrink

Posted on by Patrick Ishmael

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports today that while the St. Louis region grew marginally over the last year, St. Louis City nonetheless lost residents again and continued its decades-long downward trajectory in population. St. Louis City now sits at 315,700 people, down from 319,257 at the 2010 Census and a far cry from the its 1950 population of over 850,000.

But while the metropolitan area did see a net increase in population, the news in context isn't all that great. (Emphasis mine)

St. Louis, which held steady at about 2.81 million people, is now the 20th-largest region in the U.S., having been leapfrogged by the surging Denver metro area, which gained an estimated 58,000 residents just last year.

The St. Louis region has added an estimated 24,000 people since 2010. Among the 25 largest metro areas, only Detroit has added fewer people. More people have left the region than moved in during the past five years, but the population was pushed upward because of births.

We have written at length about the importance of strong cities to our local economies. When a region's economic anchor begins to sink, the rest of the region suffers as well, and that's where things stand in St. Louis. From taxes to incentives to education and everything in between, the ship of state that is St. Louis City is running ashore. Rather than stay the course, it's time for a course correction. It's time, finally, for reforms.

If “No Tax Increase Bonds” Sound Too Good To Be True, They Probably Are

Posted on by Elizabeth Morrison

Officials in the Washington and Hickman Mills school districts have proposed a seemingly lucrative deal to voters—a “no tax increase” bond. Schools get more money, and there is no tax increase. What’s not to love?  It’s actually a bit more complicated than that.

As SMI researchers explained in a blog post and video back in 2014, a no tax increase bond is similar to refinancing a home—it simply stretches debt out over a longer period of time. It looks like there isn’t a tax increase, because the levy itself isn’t being increased; only the length of the bond is. But what proponents often leave out (and anyone who has paid off their mortgage will tell you) is that if the district pays off the bond, it doesn’t have to keep charging the same levy. That is why SMI Fellow James Shuls called it a “No tax levy increase bond” and not a “no tax increase bond”

According to the district, the bond in Washington would help free up money needed to fund area schools that have faced over $2 million in budget cuts due to decreases in enrollment and assessed valuation. In Hickman Mills, the bond would help pay for facility upgrades and renovations. Superintendent Dennis Carpenter has scheduled a town-hall meeting open to the public on March 29 to elaborate on the District’s plans for the facility upgrades and other projects.  The proposal is on the April 5 ballot.

Whether or not these school districts need more money is an open question worth debating, but it is hard to have a productive discussion when the means of collecting that money are so opaque.  Leaders should be honest and transparent with citizens, and taxpayers have to remember that there is no such thing as a free lunch.

More Corporate Welfare for St. Louis Land Developer?

Posted on by John Wright

On Wednesday, land developer Paul McKee announced a plan to build a food market in St. Louis as part of the NorthSide Regeneration Project. The city could certainly use more businesses and jobs, but locals are skeptical about this plan. Paul McKee has promised a handful of big projects on the north side over the years. To date, he’s yet to lay a single brick.

McKee is asking the city for handouts to complete this new project: at least $5 million in new market tax credits. To date, the city has authorized McKee to take almost $400 million dollars in TIF handouts. McKee’s promises for the north side go back at least to 2009 and include plans to build a hospital, office buildings, retail stores, and homes.

Rather than start any of these projects, McKee’s regeneration project has stalled and held out for more and more tax incentives. In the past two years the regeneration project has been delinquent paying taxes and has had financial problems resulting in foreclosures.

Shelia Rendon, a homeowner who lives in the community Paul McKee has made so many promises to, questions why the city continues to work with Paul McKee. “The community lost faith in him a long time ago,” she told me. Sheila would like to see development in her neighborhood, but not at the expense of the people who already live there.

Unfortunately, the only north side development project associated with McKee that seems to have made any progress, relocating National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) to north St. Louis, would come at the expense of the existing community. Relocating the NGA to the north side would require using eminent domain to kick St. Louis residents like Sheila out of their homes. This is something members of the community strongly oppose.

The fact that the city government keeps awarding tax incentives to these development projects leaves residents like Sheila shaking their heads, “The city does not need to keep pouring money into projects for Paul McKee. It needs to invest in the existing community.”

Kansas City’s Economic Divide

Posted on by Patrick Tuohey

On a recent broadcast of KCPT’s Ruckus, former KC Chamber of Commerce head Jim Heeter said [starts at 11:02],

Greater Kansas City is on a roll—almost a week doesn’t go by when we’re not on a top ten list of one kind or another. Where we always lag is in creation of jobs and economic growth; we always lag our peer group cities.

Not only is Kansas City lagging our peers overall, but city policy is seriously failing to help those who need it the most. According to the left-leaning Brookings Institution, while Kansas City is having middling success at growing the economy and building wealth relative to other metropolitan areas, it is performing poorly at spreading it around. Over the past ten years, Brookings ranked Kansas City 46th out of 100 at growth and prosperity. Yet we’re down by the bottom for inclusion—a combination of employment, median wage, and relative poverty.

In the chart below, Brookings calculates that over the past ten years the Kansas City region has seen a decrease in the median wage of 7.7%, an increase of 12.5% in relative poverty, and a regional decrease in employment by 3.5%. Despite claims about caring for every neighborhood and every socioeconomic level, civic leaders have failed to deliver to those in the most need.

Supporters of the status quo may like to gather like latter-day Gatsbys and tell us how swimmingly everything is going in Kansas City while they lay out their ambitious plans for the future. They direct us to all the shiny new things they’re building downtown with taxpayer dollars. But it’s worth remembering that far too many people are being left out of the party.

Even after Departure, Saint Louis’s Deal with Rams Gets Worse

Posted on by Joseph Miller

Over the last couple of years, and especially in recent months, Saint Louis residents have gotten to know just how bad a deal regional leaders made to get the Rams to move to Saint Louis. The Rams got their moving expenses paid for, a brand-new stadium to play in, and a clause that said they could cut their lease short if Saint Louis did not spend a lot more in the future. There’s a reason the deal was described as the “worst lease ever.” When the Rams decided to use their escape clause and leave for Los Angeles, locals could be forgiven for thinking that, if nothing else, the city was at least done getting fleeced by Rams.

Sadly, the humiliation is not over yet. The St. Louis Regional Convention and Sports Complex Authority (RSA), the public authority that handled the leasing of the Edward Jones Dome, also owns the Ram’s former practice facilities in Earth City. They leased those facilities to the team for $25,000 a year. While it’s tempting, this blog will not discuss why the Rams were allowed to pay rent equivalent to that of a two-bedroom apartment for a complex valued at $19 million. Because that’s not the worst part. Apparently, the RSA signed a deal with the Rams giving them an option to buy this complex (again, valued at $19 million) for one dollar in 2024.

The RSA does not believe that the deal with Rams holds following the team’s departure. The authority is looking to sell the land to help cover the costs of the failed bid to keep the Rams. The dispute will now go to court, and residents can hope for a favorable outcome. But whichever way a judge rules, Saint Louis residents should be wary of the pitfalls of government deal-making.  

This Is What Democracy Looks Like?

Posted on by Michael Q. McShane

A never-ending talking point of school choice foes is that public schools are “democratically controlled” and charter schools or private schools supported by vouchers are not. Tracing their argument back to the “Common Schools” that Horace Mann envisioned, they argue that elected school boards represent the will of the community and are the best safeguard of children and taxpayers.

On April 5, even though four seats on the Kansas City School Board are open, not a single name will appear on a ballot. One of those seats has already been filled because only one person qualified to run.  No one qualified for the other three seats and they will thus have to be filled by write-in candidates.

Yes, one-third of the 9-member school board that controls a budget of $328 million will be write-ins. And this isn’t even the first time this has happened. Back in 2012, 3 of the 4 open seats were filled by write-in candidates.

This is not democracy. This is despondence.

Schools of choice are accountable to the families that send their children to them. No one in Kansas City has to send their child to a charter school. No one in states that have voucher programs have to use them. They can if they want to, if they find a school that meets their needs. The people in the best position to determine what is right for their children are the ones that are empowered to make the decisions.

Kansas City is the polar opposite of that. Whoever wins those seats were unable to find 250 people to sign a petition to get them on the ballot.  They will be elected by the tiniest fraction of the community that they represent.  They will have no mandate to hold schools accountable or to represent the community they live in.

And now comes the hard question:  If we cannot recruit people willing to clear an incredibly low bar to be part of this body, why does it still exist?

Giving Non-Violent Offenders a Second Chance

Posted on by Jonathan Brown

Alongside 14 other states, Missouri is currently trying to advance legislation that would reform the scope and qualifications for the expungement of criminal records. “Expungement” here refers to sealing or erasing a record of arrest, conviction, and related proceedings.

Why should we expunge some criminal records? Because an arrest record, even from years ago, can stand between a person and a job. Low-level offenders who have served their time and have demonstrated their successful rehabilitation should not be held back by their past mistakes. They should be given an opportunity to move forward and contribute meaningfully to society. Expungement provides this opportunity.

Missouri currently allows the opportunity for expungement of a limited number of non-violent, low-level felonies and an approved list of misdemeanor offenses (see here for a link to the Missouri Revised Statutes for Expungement) after a period of time. In this current legislative session, Missouri Senate Bill 588, House Bill 1889, and House Bill 2224, would increase the number of times that an offender can petition for expungement and reduce the waiting period between the end of the sentence and eligibility to petition for expungement.

Currently, offenders have to wait 20 years if they committed a qualified (non-violent) felony, or 10 years if they committed a misdemeanor or ordinance violation or were arrested. These reforms would shorten the time for felons to five years and all others to three. Most importantly, these bills would expand the eligibility for expungement of records to include a wider range of misdemeanors, low-level, non-violent felony convictions, and arrests.

As Senator Bob Dixon of Springfield has said: “[this allows] the legislators to have a very frank discussion about a real expungement process that provides a path of restoration to those who have done wrong but have learned from their mistakes and have corrected their ways over a period of time so that they can, among other things, find employment.”

The best way to prevent recidivism is to help rehabilitating offenders get jobs. A 2009 study by the Missouri Department of Corrections (here, p. 26) found that Missouri offenders who were unemployed or employed only part time consistently had higher recidivism rates than those who were employed full time (working 35 hours or more a week).

Reforming criminal expungement strengthens Missouri’s program of restorative and rehabilitative justice and ultimately promotes greater economic opportunity for individuals who have paid their debt to society. That goal is worth pursuing.

Should Ladue Take on $85 Million in Debt?

Posted on by Michael Q. McShane

On April 5, voters in Ladue will be asked to increase their taxes to pay for $85,100,000 in new debt for the school district.  The district wants to borrow to renovate some buildings, to build new science labs and performing arts facilities, and to update other infrastructure.

Right now, residents of the Ladue school district pay 39 cents per $100 of assessed value of their property to service the existing debt of the school district.  The April 5 ballot measure would double that, to 78 cents per $100 of assessed value.

According to Zillow, the median home price in Ladue is $814,000. Because Missouri assesses home value at 19% of market value, the proposed tax increase is a $603.17 hike per year for the median home owner. Half of homeowners will pay more than that.

Ladue is a lovely place for a variety of reasons, but one thing that makes it so attractive to residents is that it takes advantage of the high value of its property by charging a relatively low rate of property tax. As my colleague James Shuls pointed out in talking about the proposed levy increase in St. Louis, Ladue’s levy is well below the St. Louis County average, but it is still able to generate a lot of money for its schools.  It’s an ideal situation.

Ladue should think long and hard before mitigating its competitive advantage over neighboring municipalities. Are there other efficiencies that it can find? Could it take on less debt, or wait until it has paid off what it has already incurred?  Is it buying new bells and whistles that aren’t associated with better student learning? The answers to these questions would tell voters whether they are getting additional value for their money.

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