Let’s Get Real (Time Pricing)

Missouri’s electricity market does not include many free-market principles. Incorporating them has the potential to save customers money.

Electricity prices change as demand fluctuates throughout the day, but customers who pay fixed, per-kilowatt hour rates are shielded from those changes. This price shielding also means consumers don’t benefit from cost-conscious electricity use.

Many Missourians do have access to time of use rates through their utility, which do reflect market principles to a limited degree. Two or three different rates for electricity use are set based on demand at certain times of day. For instance, customers pay a higher set rate between 10 a.m. and 8 p.m. (since demand is higher) than they do during all other hours, yielding some benefits for cost-conscious consumers.

But since electricity prices change by the hour, could this time-sensitive pricing principle be extended further to yield even more consumer benefits? How would that work?

Utilities in many states offer customers “real-time pricing,” which grants residents the ability to pay market rates for electricity that change hourly based on demand. Transparent real-time prices allow customers to plan their electricity use and save money accordingly. For example, real-time pricing customers of ComEd, Illinois’ largest utility, saved an average of 15 percent on electricity supply charges between 2015 and 2018 compared to what they would have paid under a fixed-rate plan. Ameren Illinois’ real-time pricing customers also saved 10 percent during that same period.

Logistically, utilities offer websites publishing day-ahead hourly electricity prices for their customers, who are equipped with an advanced meter to measure their hourly electricity use. No cost estimates for implementing a real-time pricing program in Missouri exist, but the only equipment needed is a low-cost meter upgrade. Enrollees in Ameren Missouri’s time-of-use program pay a $1.50 fee per month to use an advanced meter. If this is any guide, costs incurred should be low and only charged to customers applying to the program.

Ultimately, while Missourians have access to a watered-down version of real-time pricing, introducing more market-based principles into electricity markets has the potential to bring more consumers benefits.

KCMO Vs KCK: Aaron Renn Joins the Show-Me Institute Podcast

On the most recent Show-Me Institute podcast, Dr. Susan Pendergrass is joined by Aaron Renn and Patrick Tuohey. They discuss Aaron’s recent paper published by the Institute. The report analyzes the economic conditions of Kansas City, Kansas versus Kansas City, Missouri.

Aaron Renn is an independent researcher and was formerly a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

Patrick Tuohey is currently a fellow at the Show-Me Institute, where he formerly served as director of municipal policy.

Listen to the podcast here: https://soundcloud.com/show-me-institute/smi-podcast-kcmo-vs-kck-aaron-renn-and-patrick-tuohey

Read the full report here: https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/employment-jobs/kansas-city-missouri-vs-kansas

Districts Denied Once Again

Unfortunately, it seems unlikely we’ll get reform for community improvement districts (CIDs) and transportation development districts (TDDs) this year. The governor has vetoed House Bill 1854, which passed the legislature earlier this year. There were a wide variety of measures in the bill (and not all were good), so I won’t speak to the bill in its entirety, but the section relating to CIDs and TDDs would have been a win for taxpayers.

As the process currently works, CIDs and TDDs are approved by a vote of only people within the proposed taxing district. This bill would have subjected CID and TDD approval to a vote of the people in the city in which the district is located. This would have solved one of the biggest problems with these taxing districts: Many are not subject to a broad-based, representative vote for approval. Some districts can even be approved by only a handful of property owners if the district is small enough, yet the costs are externalized to all taxpayers who spend within the district.

As Show-Me Institute researchers have mentioned before, special-taxing districts like these are on the rise. According to financial reports received by the Missouri State Auditor, there are 495 CIDs and 237 TDDs in Missouri. CIDs collected over $56 million and TDDs collected more than $73.5 million in 2018. Hundreds of districts are taking millions away from Missourians, and they may not have had a say in it.

The problems with CIDs and TDDs are clear, and lawmakers should act. There is still an opportunity to give taxpayers increased representation in a special legislative session, but it seems that for now, the problems with CIDs and TDDs will continue.

Call it What it is: Medicaid Expansion

Supporters of Medicaid expansion have long played loose with the facts of the program, and this year is no exception. Earlier this year, my colleague Elias Tsapelas scuttled the notion that Missouri would “save money” by expanding Medicaid. Expansion backers have now pivoted to an oldie-but-goodie talking point: that Missouri would be “bringing home” their tax dollars from Washington.

It was nonsense five years ago when they made the argument to the legislature, and it’s nonsense now.

I won’t republish my entire Forbes piece here, so click the link above if you’re interested in the original editorial. But plainly, the expansion does not operate like the public is now being told it does in TV ads.

  • There is no federal pot of money divvied among participants when other states don’t join the expansion. If only one state expanded Medicaid, that one state wouldn’t then receive the funding of the 49 non-participating states. It’d receive money for its program and no more.
  • Missouri already receives more in federal support than our federal contribution warrants. We rely more on federal money than most other states, and we’re already getting more than our “fair share” in federal cash even without expansion.
  • But perhaps most importantly, there are no “tax dollars” being “sent back” to any state, especially these days. We are in a period of extraordinary deficits, and that means every new dollar spent by the federal government is from debt, not from taxes paid.

Medicaid expansion is debt, plain and simple, and yet it will still require redirecting existing state money currently earmarked for education, public safety, infrastructure, and other priorities to feed the Medicaid program’s insatiable appetite.

It’s Medicaid expansion debt. Supporters should be honest with the public and call it what it is.

Missouri Medicaid Division Confirms Expansion Will Break Budget

Medicaid expansion was never going to be “free” for Missouri, and now we have even more evidence that expansion would be a catastrophe for the state’s budget. Recently, the Missouri House of Representatives Budget Committee met to discuss the fiscal implications of Medicaid expansion. Testimony delivered during the hearing reinforced what’s been obvious for a while now: The promised taxpayer savings from the Medicaid expansion proposal are fictional.

Nearly five months ago, I wrote about my concerns with the widely cited Washington University expansion model. Last week during testimony before the committee, the Missouri Department of Social Services (DSS) confirmed that my concerns were valid. DSS officials explained in no uncertain terms that it would be illegal to enroll disabled Missourians into the Medicaid expansion population. This means that currently disabled Missourians would only be eligible for the current lower matching rate for federal funds, instead of the much more generous matching federal rate for the expansion population. And as I outlined in February, without that assumption, there’s a billion-dollar hole in the Washington University model’s cost estimates.

DSS also released its own estimates for the budgetary impact of Medicaid expansion. The projections are based on Missouri’s current Medicaid costs, its economic conditions, and what is known about the state’s low-income population, and they show that expansion will cost more than $2.7 billion in total each year. The federal government will pay the majority of that $2.7 billion, but state taxpayers still pay federal taxes. In state general revenue spending, DSS estimates it will cost more than $167 million per year, which will amount to more than $870 million in state income and sales tax dollars between 2022 and 2026.

These estimates are a far cry from “savings,” which is especially important because these costs will come on top of the current Medicaid program’s growth. It is also important to understand why the Washington University expansion model varied so significantly from our own state Medicaid agency’s predictions. In the end, it comes down to a series of faulty assumptions.

Not only were the authors of the model wrong about what could be done with Missouri’s disabled population, but they also vastly underestimated the number of Missourians that would enroll in expansion and the associated cost of their care. Instead of roughly 230,000 newly eligible adults enrolling, DSS suggests the total will be closer to 286,000. And the monthly cost of each new enrollee will be more than $730 per month, as opposed to the Washington University assumption of $425.

With updated DSS numbers and corrected assumptions about disabled enrollment, the WashU model’s conclusion of a financial boon for Missouri is unattainable. Based on this new information, and given the severity of our state’s current economic downturn, it’s time to stop pretending Medicaid expansion will not break Missouri’s budget.

It’s Time to Make Net Metering a Net Positive

Net metering is a popular program that allows rooftop solar panel owners to sell extra electricity they generate back to their utility to offset their bill. However, as I wrote recently, net metering customers are routinely overcompensated for their electricity. This makes net metering a costly program for an expensive technology that benefits the wealthy at everyone else’s expense.

So how do we fix this? The key is to level the playing field. This could be achieved by altering net metering customers’ compensation rates and opening retail electricity markets for competition.

For those wanting a closer look, I address this in more detail in a recent op-ed for Real Clear Energy.

Unfairness in Missouri Teacher Pension System

What is fair? It is sometimes a hard concept to grasp. As a first-grade teacher, I constantly heard students say “That’s not fair.” Sometimes the complaints were unfounded, like when the most obnoxious student in the class complained that the students following the rules were rewarded with a piece of candy. At other times the claim had merit, like when I copied a lesson on discrimination out of Jane Elliot’s book. Throughout the day, I favored blue-eyed children over all other children. By lunchtime the class couldn’t take it anymore and a boy burst out, “It’s just not fair, Mr. Shuls!” The truth is, some things are just fundamentally unfair; so much so that even a first-grader can see it.

There are other sorts of inequities, however, that are much stealthier. They are no less unfair, just less noticeable. Take for example the Public School Teacher’s Retirement System of Missouri. Most public school teachers love this retirement plan. It allows many teachers to retire by their mid-fifties and earn a steady income for the rest of their lives. But most teachers don’t know that this system has been built with a structural flaw that favors some individuals over others.

As Andrew Tipping and I demonstrate in our forthcoming peer-reviewed article in Educational Researcher, “Cross-subsidization in Teacher Pension Benefits: Examining Rates of Return Among School Districts,” teachers in some school districts get disproportionately larger returns on their retirement contributions. We calculated the rate of return for a career teacher in 490 school districts. The rate of return is the interest rate that would be needed, based on all contributions, to pay out a specific benefit for a pre-determined period of time. For instance, if I put $100 into a savings account and wanted to take out $110 in a year, I would need to earn a 10 percent return. We simply do the same sort of calculation, but over a 30-year career and a 30-year retirement. We find a tremendous disparity in the rates of return among career teachers in different school districts. The variation of rates of return among school districts is displayed in the histogram below taken from our article:

Pension rate of return

Source: Authors’ calculations on the basis of Missouri School Boards’ Assocation (2015), Public School Retirement SYstem of Missouri (2016), and district salary schedules.

We found that in general, smaller, lower-paying school districts have lower rates of return and larger, higher-paying school districts have higher rates of return. This occurs because of the structure of the system. So why does this happen?

Let me try to explain. Imagine you and I decide to pool our investments, and we each invest $500 for a total of $1,000. Only, we do not invest our money all at once. We do it over a period of five months. You invest $100 every month for five months. I invest $65 the first month and increase my investment each month with a final contribution of $123 in the fifth month. I somehow convince you that we should base the payout on just the fifth period and not our entire investment. We earn a 10 percent return on our $1,000 investment, but distribute the funds based on our final period five contributions, which leads to a 45/55 split, despite both investing the same amount of money in total.

Pension return table

That is essentially what happens in the pension system and no one seems to notice.

Teachers in poorer school districts contribute more in the beginning of their career relative to the end, and because of the way the system works, they end up subsidizing the retirement benefits of teachers in wealthier school districts. This cross-subsidization of pension benefits occurs because benefits are not tied to total lifetime contributions. In fact, only the final three years out of a teacher’s entire career are used to determine benefits. It is this design of the system that allows this unfairness to occur. Yet, unlike my first graders, no one seems to be shouting out “That’s not fair!”

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