In-Person Learning during the Pandemic (Part 2 of 2)

In my last post, I explained why school districts have had such a hard time making adjustments to accommodate in-person learning in light of COVID-19—their organizational structures are simply not set up for it. There is, of course, an additional related factor that I did not mention in that post: incentives. School districts have little to gain by changing the way they operate, and they have little to fear if they stay the course.

Let’s think about this for a minute. What would encourage a business or a school to completely rethink how they are doing things? In business, it would likely be profit. If they could make more money, especially in the long-run, a business owner might be inclined to reorganize and restructure. Notice, two things here: First, this new model would have to be profitable and, second, it would have to be profitable for years to come. Neither of these is true for schools when it comes to COVID-19.

In Missouri and many other states, public school districts face very little financial pressure to make adjustments right now. They are not being penalized when students leave because the financial structures are set up to protect them from these sorts of dips in enrollment. Every student could leave a district and it would be guaranteed the same level of funding that it received last year. Moreover, few parents even have the option to leave a school. Not every child in Missouri has a viable alternative to their assigned public school.

Moreover, public school leaders are doubtful that COVID-19 will continue to shape our school lives for years to come. They are probably right about that. Vaccines are quickly rolling out and, hopefully, the fears of the coronavirus will soon be behind us. As educators often say, “This too shall pass.” Why would a school district, with no financial incentive, make radical adjustments to its schools when they will likely go back to usual next year? The short answer is, it wouldn’t.

So what is the lesson we should learn from all of this? There are plenty. We could talk about how school funding could be changed so that it follows students, or we could talk about how collective bargaining agreements need to have emergency clauses. But the main lesson, I think, is much simpler—students need educational options. Every child, in every school district, should have at least one viable alternative to their assigned public school. Just because school districts cannot adapt to meet the needs of all students, it doesn’t mean our state policy shouldn’t.

The Plan Without a Plan

Greater St. Louis, Inc. recently came out with a draft of its STL 2030 Jobs Plan, which is described as a plan “to create a significant number of quality jobs for the entire St. Louis metropolitan area.” But for a 93-page document, it really doesn’t say much. While there’s plenty of buzz words and mentions of “inclusive growth,” the plans discussed are very light on details, and there’s little explanation for how these plans will actually achieve the stated goals of Greater St. Louis, Inc. Additionally, no measurable metrics are identified that tell us how success will be measured. Just as important, it’s unclear how these things will be funded.

If the numerous initiatives introduced in this plan are privately funded, great! Individuals and businesses are free to invest in these initiatives if they deem them worthwhile investments. However, if this plan calls for public dollars, taxpayers should be wary. What is the plan for funding initiatives like the Brickline Greenway or lofty goals like an “entrepreneurial surge?” There is some mention of “public capital” and “sizable investments” in various organizations, but taxpayers ought to have a clearer explanation, especially if their tax dollars will be diverted to these projects.

Spending taxpayer dollars on vague endeavors is not the solution to St. Louis’s woes. The creators of this plan claim it will help St. Louis’s economy, yet there is no mention of things that research shows have positive effects on a city’s economy, like lowering taxes or lessening regulations. Recent population estimates show a decline in both St. Louis City and County, continuing a trend that’s been going on for years. St. Louis needs real policy reforms to pull the city out of its slump and the STL 2030 Jobs Plan simply doesn’t deliver that.

Now Is Not the Time for Higher Taxes

With Missouri’s next legislative session set to begin in a few weeks, it’s time to start discussing some of the policies that may be up for consideration.

One such topic is the internet sales tax. Ever since the Supreme Court handed down its Wayfair decision, states across the country have been adjusting their laws to allow for the collection of internet sales taxes from businesses that don’t have a physical presence in the state. The issue has gained some traction in Missouri over the past few years, but the legislature has yet to act.

Before using the internet sales tax as a new stream of revenue, here are a few things policymakers should consider:

  • Revenue Neutral – Raising taxes on Missourians during a once-in-a-generation pandemic should be a non-starter. To ensure the overall tax burden of Missourians stays the same, the internet sales tax should have a mechanism to make it revenue neutral in perpetuity. To balance the increased sales tax, the legislature should agree to lower another tax (corporate, income, sales, etc.) at a rate corresponding to the projections for internet sales tax collections.
  • Accountable – If the legislature wants another source of revenue, it should include measures that ensure the funds are collected accountably. Instead of simply adding to the billions collected each year in sales and use taxes, these new funds should be tracked separately. Doing so would allow Missourians the opportunity to track how much money is being raised as a result of the legislation, and also help ensure the move remains revenue neutral by seeing how other taxes will be adjusted each year accordingly.
  • Transparent – In such trying economic times, it is more important than ever that taxpayers know where their tax dollars are being spent. Any government that wants to begin collecting a new tax should be required to regularly publish its transaction data. My colleagues have been writing about the need for checkbook transparency for years, and any effort to raise taxes should include this policy as a precondition.

In the coming months, discussions about Wayfair will likely begin again, and supporters of small, responsible government need to pay attention. Collecting an internet sales tax can be done in a responsible way, but under no circumstances should the budgetary problems of today be used to justify raising taxes on Missourians for years to come.

Whole Foods CEO Speaks on Markets

Whole Foods Market co-founder and CEO John Mackey recently “spoke up to defend free markets,” as a Wall Street Journal article puts it. Mackey recently spoke to the president of American Enterprise Institute to promote his new book. While I don’t claim to be an expert on the company or the CEO, there were some great free-market points in this interview.

Mackey spoke highly of capitalism, saying, “We can’t throw out capitalism and replace it with socialism—that’ll be a disaster! Socialism has been tried 42 times in the last 100 years and 42 failures. It doesn’t work.” Mackey believes that capitalism is “the greatest thing that humanity’s ever done,” crediting capitalism with increases in life expectancy, earnings, and literacy rates. Mackey recognizes that it’s entrepreneurs who have taken scientific discoveries and operationalized them to make our lives better. He points out that “businesspeople are not the villains of the story; they’re the heroes of the story. The entrepreneurs are the ones that create great progress.”

While noting that society needs rules and regulations, he says, “[Y]ou can overly regulate business so it’s hard to do business and then the whole society becomes less wealthy and less prosperous.” This is a point often made by Show-Me Institute researchers; burdensome regulations make it harder to work and make a living, which can have negative effects on economic growth.

I can’t speak to all the actions of Whole Foods or other interviews by Mackey, but it was certainly refreshing and interesting to hear the CEO of a major company supporting markets in this instance. I tend to agree with Mackey’s statements, but you can listen here and decide for yourself.

We Need Actions, Not Words

Greater St. Louis Inc. has just released the results of its year of discussions with community members about how to get the St. Louis region back on track. The STL 2030 Jobs Plan certainly has lofty goals. The authors claim to have created a road map to make St. Louis a nationally recognized leader in inclusive job growth through five definitive actions.

The problem is that the report quickly glosses past their acknowledgment of “decades of economic underperformance, population stagnation and racial division” to a future of growth and expansion in a mere nine years. And the path to achieving this miracle is less than clear. The report is peppered with buzz words, but short on detail.

As someone who spends time studying education policy and results across the state of Missouri, I’m very curious to know how this group plans to turn a school system in which just 18.5 percent of students score Proficient or above in math into a “talent engine.” The commission wants to ensure “that every student receives quality STEM education and exposure to various occupations beginning in pre-K and continuing through high school”? What does quality STEM education look like and who’s going to teach it? And don’t we have quite a long way to go there, given that the average high school ACT score is currently 16.6?

Action item number four is “Become a talent magnet and engine,” and that’s the only part of the plan that mentions education. “Successful” programs at local community colleges and universities are identified, but fewer than 60 percent of SLPS graduates enroll in college and the report acknowledges their dismal completion rates.

Not to be a wet blanket, but St. Louis is not going to be a talent engine or magnet until we figure out how to better educate the 82 percent of students who are not able to do math at grade level. All the jargon and buzzwords in the world won’t help a district with a mobility rate (a measure of how many kids joined or left a district in a given year) of over 46 percent. Turning this ship around will be difficult and will require big ideas and open-minded thinking.

St. Louis already has quite a few high-performing charter schools, but we could use more. There are existing charter school networks with proven track records of success in STEM education for disadvantaged students. The Denver School for Science and Technology (DSST) network, for example, serves nearly 7,000 students across nine middle schools and six high schools. Just 15 percent of DSST students are white and over 70 percent qualify for free or reduced-price lunch. But here are the numbers that matter: DSST has had 100 percent college acceptance for its high school seniors for the last twelve years in a row. Its average SAT score of 1092 is higher than the national average of 1059. And two-thirds of its graduates become first-generation college students.

DSST is just one example. Cities like Denver that encourage strong portfolios of education options for their students become growth engines. Families want to stay and raise their children in these cities. Putting STEM materials in front of students who are stuck in schools that can’t teach them math isn’t going to cut it. Every parent in the St. Louis region should have several publicly funded options for educating their children—traditional public schools, charter public schools, private schools, or homeschooling. A robust system of choice should be our goal, not waving a wand over the existing system and imagining it will simply transform itself.

Where Are the Kindergartners?

A version of this commentary appeared in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch on December 8, 2020.

According to enrollment counts taken this fall, there are about 6,000 fewer kindergartners enrolled in Missouri public schools this year than there were last year and about 9,000 fewer pre-kindergartners. That’s a ten-percent drop for kindergarten and a 30-percent drop for pre-K. Where have they gone? According to a recent article, the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) is “exploring” whether they are being homeschooled, have switched to a private school, or just didn’t enroll. It’s important to figure out where these children are, who is footing the bill for their education this year, and whether they’re likely to ever be public school students.

Similar to what has been reported across dozens of states, public school enrollment across all grades in Missouri is down. There are almost 25,000 students missing this year, and most of them are the youngest kids. It’s not surprising that in a year when districts are changing how and where they’re delivering education, sometimes multiple times, frustrated parents are attempting to take control and make their own calls about their children’s education. According to a national analysis by NPR, parents are passing on public school pre-K and kindergarten this year because they just don’t think virtual instruction is right for very young children. Equally, even if in-person learning is offered, they didn’t like the idea of their little ones starting school in the “weird” environment of masks and social distancing. As a result, they’re choosing to either homeschool, find a private school, or get together with friends and neighbors to create their own “micro school.”

It’s important to ask: If these children are beginning their elementary school experience somewhere else, then what is the likelihood that they will return to their assigned public school once things return to normal? Doesn’t it seem likely that some percentage of these parents will make their choice permanent?

In addition to having a better understanding of how and where Missouri students are receiving education this year, we also need to know where these children are because they come (or go) with dollars attached. The state of Missouri allocates roughly $6,500 for each public-school student, with additions for low-income students, students with disabilities, and students who are learning English as a second language. This is known as the “state adequacy target,” as it is the amount considered “adequate” to provide a high-quality education. What amount is adequate to educate students who aren’t even enrolled?

Enrollment counts and attendance rates, which are used to determine state funding, are probably a little crazy this year. But districts have an out. Missouri law allows districts to use the highest of the last two years’ enrollment numbers. And this year only, they can assume an attendance rate of 94 percent. There are countless stories about the difficulty of taking attendance this year, but the assumption that the attendance is actually 94 percent is ridiculous. In terms of the bottom line, the state could potentially spend over $100 million per year for the next two years on 15,000 students who were never enrolled in a public school. To reiterate, children who were never public-school students may be counted as such and funded as such until the 2022–23 school year.

While the state of Missouri will be sending millions of dollars to districts for students they never educated, parents are scrambling to figure out education solutions that work for their families and, in many cases, how to pay for them. They deserve a little relief. One free option for parents would be to enroll in the Missouri virtual program, MOCAP, which should be seamless this year and not require district permission. Equally, all parents, regardless of their income, should be able to create learning pods with neighbors and friends, and they should be able to access a portion of their state education funding to do so. Finally, some states, such as Oklahoma, are helping parents who are struggling financially cover private school tuition. Missouri should do the same.

One outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic is that State education funds are being misdirected to districts for thousands of students who were never enrolled, while parents are paying out of pocket for their children’s education. It’s time for bold action to help every Missouri student access an education environment that works for them and their family, not just the ones who can afford to pay for it on their own.

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