K-12 enrollment in Missouri’s public school system has been falling for more than a decade. Today, Missouri has about 30,000 fewer students enrolled in public schools than it had 11 years ago—and with kindergarten cohorts getting smaller and smaller, this negative trend is not showing signs of reversing course.
COVID-19 appeared to accelerate this student loss, as Missouri saw a decline in enrollment of 20,000 students in the fall of 2020. When enrollment rebounded slightly the following year, it was fair to wonder if Missouri could eventually regain the 20,000 who had left. However, according to recent enrollment data from the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE), enrollment is trending downward once again.
Below is a graph that maps Missouri’s K-12 public school enrollment since fall 2011 (the 2011–2012 school year):
Source: Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE)
*Fall 2023 has a dashed line because the enrollment figure is preliminary and not final. *
It’s possible that the students we lost during the pandemic simply aren’t “coming back,” as Missouri enrollment resumed its pre-pandemic decline in both of the past two years. With this in mind, we need to evaluate policy options in light of a shrinking student body.
As I have discussed before, the general trend of declining student enrollment and rising teacher employment reveals that the proclaimed “teacher shortage” is due to specific deficiencies in the teacher pipeline—not a growing student body.
School districts also need to evaluate which classes and services they can provide to their student body. As I discussed recently, declining enrollment and participation led to Brentwood being unable to field a football team. As a result, the district merged its football team with Clayton, which led to a solid playoff run.
These kinds of policies will be needed as enrollment continues to decline. Districts may need to share classes with each other. Some districts may need to go a step further and pool their resources. There are many costs associated with meeting federal and state regulations in a school district, and merging two shrinking districts into one could increase the amount of funding devoted to instructing students.
The K-12 enrollment decline isn’t what we want, but it appears to be what we’re getting. Policymakers at the state and district levels need to plan accordingly.
