This Is Not a Drill

As you may have read here many times, Missouri’s public school enrollment is shrinking. A big part of the reason for this is declining birth rates. A recent report released by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) projects that Missouri will have its largest class of high school graduates this school year—spring 2025—at 68,656 graduates. That includes 63,349 public school high school graduates and 5,307 private high school graduates. By 2041, WICHE projects that Missouri will have just 58,880 total high school graduates, with 54,401 coming from public schools and 4,776 from private schools.

Now that we have reached the (projected) enrollment peak and are heading down the cliff, Missouri needs to begin considering the implications for higher education and the workforce. First, the state should focus on the cost and access of public colleges and universities. Second students not planning on attending college should have access to career-building skills and certificates while still in high school. Finally, and most importantly, every Missouri high school graduate should leave school college or career ready.

We’ve known about these trends for a while, but there’s still time to adjust to our new enrollment reality if we make needed changes now. We’ll see if Missouri lawmakers actually follow through.