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In this report, economist Joseph Haslag examines what drives economic and productivity growth across the states and finds that the single biggest factor is labor productivity. The analysis points to a clear lever for Missouri policymakers: eliminating the state income tax could raise the state’s annual growth rate by a quarter to a half percentage point, lifting worker incomes.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Governor Kehoe and the Missouri Legislature are currently advancing a proposed constitutional amendment that would phase out and eventually eliminate the state income tax by limiting revenue growth, directing surpluses to tax reduction, and authorizing a modernization of the sales tax base to speed the state’s progress toward a zero income-tax rate. When assessing this or any other reform, public debate often treats the economic pie as fixed and dwells on how different policies alter the way the pie gets cut, but this focus entirely misses the point. Job opportunities, wages, and prosperity as a whole are tied to the growth in the size of the economic pie. Thus, it is critical to understand the determinants of economic growth, which are the subject of this paper.

Key Takeaways

  • From 1997 through 2021, Missouri was the 44th-fastest-growing state and the 44th fastest in terms of total factor productivity growth.
  • For every one percentage point increase in labor productivity growth, real GDP growth increases by nearly 1.2 percentage points.
  • Nearly 62 percent of the variation in real GDP growth across states can be accounted for by movements in labor productivity growth.
  • The productivity growth from eliminating the state income tax alone would permanently raise the annual real GDP growth rate by an estimated 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points per year. This higher growth rate would cause incomes to grow by up to an additional $2,900 per worker after a decade, which is on top of the nearly $2,900 in higher wages estimated by the White House Council of Economic Advisers from the capital accumulation induced by state income tax elimination. Combined, this implies wage gains of up to $5,800.

Introduction

As the eminent economist Robert Lucas stated, “Once you start thinking about growth, it’s hard to think about anything else.” Professor Lucas was making two points. First, a growing economic pie is the foundation for rising living standards. Second, there is the puzzle regarding the wide variation in growth rates across regions. The geography of economic growth and comparisons across different areas demonstrate the kind of variation that helps people understand the causes of economic growth. Economists differentiate between growth due to more workers and growth due to output per worker; that is, population growth and productivity growth. With data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we know the rate at which output per worker has increased over the last several decades. We are interested in assessing what factors drive productivity growth across states, especially tax policy. To fill this gap in knowledge, this paper sets out to answer three main questions. First, what does the cross-state evidence tell us about the relationship between labor productivity growth and real GDP growth? Second, are movements in employment growth in particular industrial sectors correlated with movements in labor productivity growth? Third, how do government policies affect labor productivity growth?

The answers can help shape policy actions designed to encourage economic growth. In a bivariate regression, labor productivity growth can account for more than 60 percent of the variation in real GDP growth rates across states. We also find that employment growth in several sectors is positively correlated with real GDP growth, but employment growth in the construction sector and the scientific, technical and business sector are significantly, positively correlated with labor productivity growth. A cautionary note is that such correlations do not support industrial policies aimed at increasing employment in those sectors. Lastly, income tax rates affect economic growth through the after-tax return to investments. A lower state income tax rate, for example, results in substitution of current consumption for future consumption; with higher after-tax returns, future consumption has become less expensive relative to current consumption. In short, there is an incentive to invest in activities that increase productivity. For Missouri, eliminating the state income tax, for example, could add between one-quarter and one-half percentage point to the state’s real GDP growth rate.

The essay develops these questions and results after a brief overview of the relationship between productivity growth and overall economic growth. Next is a description of the data, followed by the analysis of the relationship between real GDP growth and productivity growth, the sectoral employment growth with real GDP growth and labor productivity growth. The analysis then develops a description of how income tax rates affect growth followed by a brief summary.

Drivers of Economic Growth: Factor Accumulation and the Importance of Productivity

The economic pie is measured as the output of final goods and services an economy produces each year, otherwise known as Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In economies, people combine labor with capital and ever-evolving methods and processes to produce these final goods and services. It is easy to overlook the advances in engineering, organizational management, and other factors that combine capital and labor. Often, we simply lump all these advances together into the so-called “technology” of production. Understanding growth starts with focusing on the rate at which the economic pie is changing over time. A deeper dive asks how labor, capital, and technological advances are changing over time and thus contributing to growth.

To allocate the causes of growth, we start with an equivalent way to measure GDP. The annual dollar value of final goods and services sold is equal to the annual income paid to all the inputs used in production along with the “rents” paid to owners. In other words, GDP is the same as aggregate income. In the United States, the total income paid to workers has remained a stable share of aggregate income and has risen faster than the total number of hours worked. The result: individual workers have generally seen their pay increase over time in the form of higher wages. These rising wages reflect the fact that economic output per worker, otherwise known as labor productivity, has steadily increased. However, the level and growth rate of labor productivity varies over time and by location, impacted by macroeconomic factors in addition to policy decisions made at different levels of government.

Before delving into these factors, what does labor productivity look like at the individual worker level, and what contributes to a worker becoming more productive? One element is experience. Over time, workers learn the processes involved with doing a job. Through such experience, the worker becomes better at the job; hands become used to activities and simply become more adept through practice or perhaps even confidence. In the services industry, the worker builds relationships with clients that expedite sales. In addition, the worker sees how their part of the company links to other parts and can suggest ways to streamline disjointed processes resulting in greater productivity by multiple workers. The bottom line is that a more experienced worker typically produces more goods and services in the same amount of time compared with his or her less-experienced self.

Workers also become productive with investment in human capital. Additional training provides the worker with something similar to experience. With training, the job’s requirements become clearer. Training is not the only element. Education also plays a role in worker productivity. With investment in human capital, the worker’s problem-solving skills are enhanced. Consider another example of a farmer going to an agriculture class and learning that weeding results in larger harvests at season’s end. Even without any increase in the number of hours worked, the farmer will see an increase in the total value of corn produced. In this case, the farmer’s labor productivity increases owing to the investment in human capital.

Investing in physical capital like machines and factories can also make workers more productive. Insofar as machines augment workers’ ability to complete certain tasks—think calculators, for example—the worker can become more productive. One may be concerned that such capital will replace workers rather than make them more productive. While physical capital can at times substitute for certain tasks and types of workers, the stable share of rising aggregate income that accrues to workers demonstrates that capital and workers are generally complementary in production, and businesses consistently find ways to innovate and redeploy labor to new and productive ends. Physical capital also requires some human maintenance and support, generating entirely new sources of labor demand.

Lastly, there is technological progress. Through basic research and development, new technologies are discovered. These new technologies are sometimes captured by new machines, but there are also discoveries that amount to new processes. Perhaps a clear example is the assembly line. One thing the assembly line did was put workers into position to produce automobiles faster. Rather than moving the semi-constructed vehicle around the plant floor, the assembly line produced a system that transferred the vehicle to its next logical step in the production process. Production processes, new ideas, and cost-saving analyses are ways in which worker productivity can be improved without the necessity of investment in either physical capital or human capital. The key takeaway is that technological progress is a very broad term that encompasses new modes of doing things, not just new inventions.

Overall, the two pillars of economic growth are the accumulation of the factors of production—namely, more workers and more physical capital—and improvements in the “technology” of utilizing those inputs to produce output; that is, technological progress. From the perspective of individual workers, note that while greater employment means higher GDP, a larger economic pie shared among a larger number of people does not necessarily mean a larger piece per worker. By contrast, labor productivity growth—fueled by increases in human capital per worker, physical capital per worker, and technological progress—directly makes way for rising living standards. In what follows, this paper studies the importance of productivity and technological progress in explaining state-level economic performance and the role played by different policies and regulatory environments.

Data

We have two different measures of state-level productivity growth. The “short” measure spans the period from 2007 through 2023. For the short measure, data are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Hereafter, the short measure is referred to as the BLS measure. The BLS measure calculates index values for labor productivity. The index value is set to 100 in 2017 (the base year).

We also compute a longer series of technological progress. In this alternative approach, hereafter referred to as the Solow measure, we compute the average annual growth rate for technological progress for each state between 1997 through 2021. The input data are collected from three sources: employment comes from the BLS, state-level real GDP comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and a measure of the physical capital stock is obtained from state-level capital stocks constructed using the methodology described by Garofalo and Yamarik (2002). The capital stock data are maintained by Yamarik and El-Shagi from 1947 through 2021.1

The analysis is directed at two specific questions. First, we are interested in the relationship between the average annual growth rate in labor productivity and real GDP across states. If a positive, cause-and-effect relationship exists, causation could run in either direction. On the one hand, faster labor productivity growth means that the economy can produce more output using the same inputs. On the other hand, higher output growth also means that the economy has more resources to direct toward innovation that produces productivity gains. Second, we study whether the relationship between the average growth rate of labor productivity and the growth rate of employment is specific to sectors across states. As with the first question, any potential causation could run in either direction. This difficulty in identifying causation from correlation is nothing new, as similar analyses have been done using cross-country data to develop fruitful, empirically validated theories that have enhanced our understanding of what drives national economic growth.2

In addition to labor productivity growth data, we use data on real personal income and six different employment sectors. The sector data are for construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, financial activities, professional and business services, and education and health services.

The BLS Measure

Over the period 2007 to 2023, labor productivity growth across states ranged from –0.2 percent in Louisiana to 2.6 percent in Washington. The mean across the states is 1.1 percent, and the standard deviation is 0.64 percent. Missouri reported that labor productivity increased at a 1.2 percent average annual rate, ranking 23rd in the United States. For comparison, Missouri ranked as the 43rd fastest-growing state by real GDP growth over the same period.3

Diving deeper into the data, we now look at the relationship between labor productivity growth and real GDP growth across states. Table 1 reports the results of a regression in which average annual percentage change in real GDP growth by state is the dependent variable and the average annual percentage change in labor productivity growth by state is the explanatory variable. The standard errors are reported in parentheses below the estimated coefficients.

Table 1

Regression Results for Real Personal Income Growth Across States

Not surprisingly, income growth is positively related to productivity growth.

Variable Estimated Coefficient Adj R sq
Constant 0.004*** (0.0017) 0.616
Labor Productivity Growth 1.193*** (0.134)

Source: Authors’ calculations

*** Statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

The regression results tell us three things. First, the constant tells us that for a state with zero labor productivity growth, the average annual real GDP growth rate would be 0.4 percent. Second, the coefficient on labor productivity growth is significant and positive. The implication is that a state with faster labor productivity growth will, on average, record faster real GDP growth. Indeed, for every one percentage point increase in labor productivity growth, real GDP growth increases by nearly 1.2 percentage points.4 Third, the last column reports the adjusted R square. The 0.616 value tells us that nearly 62 percent of the variation in real GDP growth across states can be accounted for by movements in labor productivity growth. With only one variable in this regression, we would expect that the remaining variation in real GDP would be explained by a host of state-specific factors excluded in the regression, such as tax policy, education infrastructure, natural resources, and the regulatory environment.

Differences across sectors in state economies may account for differences in productivity growth. The hypothesis to study is whether some states are booming because they are focusing on so-called “hot” sectors, like artificial intelligence. Such a sector-specific focus could be the result of market forces or, as is often the case, it could reflect public officials’ use of taxpayer money and other measures to lure specific industries to their states in an attempt to get ahead of the competition and beat the market. But is there a correlation between growth in employment in specific industries and overall productivity growth? More generally, we examine whether states that recorded the highest labor productivity growth are also states with the highest employment growth in a specific sector of the economy. In addition, we compute the correlation between real personal income growth and employment in the specific sector. The sample period is 2007 through 2023.

To begin, we compute the average annual percentage change in employment growth in six different sectors. State-level payroll employment levels are reported by the BLS. Table 2 reports the correlation coefficient between state-level employment growth in each sector identified by the column heading with real GDP growth (row heading “w/real GDP”) and labor productivity growth (row heading “w/LP”).

Table 2

Correlation Between Labor Productivity Growth And Sectoral Employment Growth Across States, 2007–2023

Productivity growth is not tied to a specific industry, so targeting industries is not supported.

Sector Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transport, and Utilities Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Professional, Business, and Scientific Education and Health Services
Correlation w/ Real GDP 0.761 0.401 0.32 0.162 0.663 0.532
Correlation w/ LP 0.437 0.059 0.123 –0.159 0.309 0.209

Source: Authors’ calculations

It is important to note that these correlations tell us one thing: namely, that GDP growth or labor productivity growth moves with employment growth in a particular sector. The results should not be interpreted as indicating that employment growth in a sector “causes” GDP growth or productivity growth. Neither do the results indicate that changes in GDP growth or productivity growth cause employment growth.

Based on the results, faster construction employment growth is most closely correlated with faster real GDP growth. The correlation between real GDP growth and sector-specific employment growth gradually weakens when going from the professional, business, and scientific sector to education and health services to manufacturing to trade, transport, and utilities, and finally to finance, insurance and real estate.

For labor productivity growth, the correlations are weaker across the board. In the case of the finance, insurance, and real estate sector, faster employment growth is even negatively correlated with labor productivity growth, meaning that states with faster employment growth in the finance sector recorded, on average, slower labor productivity growth between 2007 and 2023. Employment growth in the manufacturing sector and the trade, transport and utilities sector are not significantly correlated, suggesting that states with faster employment growth in these two sectors are, on average, not systematically related to faster or slower labor productivity growth. Though the correlations are not strong, the evidence does support a moderate positive correlation between employment growth in the construction, professional, business and scientific, and education and health services sectors. The correlations are weak enough that even if the causation runs from sector to labor productivity growth, the evidence does not support the idea that subsidizing employment growth in these sectors would generate greater productivity growth.5

One shortcoming of the data analyzed so far is the short time frame. Not only are there only 15 years of data, but the starting point and the end point are very close to two separate business-cycle turning points. The 2007 data were recorded just before the Great Recession. The 2023 data were recorded in the second year after the COVID recession. The short sample and the business cycle turning points could be affecting the long-run growth trend.

In addition to the time series issues, the analysis thus far does not say whether labor productivity growth is occurring because of increases in the amount of physical capital per worker—otherwise known as capital deepening—or because of innovation that gives rise to technological progress. To isolate the contribution of technological progress, we must turn to the Solow measure.

Growth Accounting and the Solow Measure

The Solow measure is a way to quantify productivity growth while taking into account the contributions of both labor and capital. The data in this section span the period from 1997 through 2021. To illustrate the measure, we start with an equation that characterizes the relationship between inputs (capital and labor) and output that is consistent with the empirical observation that the shares of income paid to capital and labor are remarkably stable over time. Such a function can be written as:

(1) Yt = At (Kt)α (Nt)1−α

where Y stands for the value of real GDP, A is total factor productivity, K is the capital stock, and N is the number of people employed. The exponent α represents the share of income paid to capital inputs and 1−α is the share paid to labor.

There are several mechanical ways to go from Equation 1 in levels to the percentage change. It is sufficient to say that after some algebra, we can express the percentage change in output as follows:6

(2) %ΔYt = %ΔA + α(ΔKt) + (1−α)(%ΔNt)

Equation 2 is the basic growth accounting equation. It says that the percentage change in aggregate output is the sum of the percentage change in total factor productivity (hereafter, TFP growth), the product of the income share paid to capital and the percentage change in the aggregate capital stock, and the product of the share of income paid to labor and the percentage change in labor. Armed with Equation 2, we have a way to assess the contributions from the various components contributing to economic growth. With real GDP, the capital stock, the number of payroll employees in each state and the fraction of income paid to each factor of production, we can solve for the average annual percentage change in productivity.

Based on the data for the period 1997 through 2021, we calculate the average annual TFP growth, using Equation 2 with α = 0.3. We plot the data for the average annual percentage change in TFP growth and the average annual percentage change in capital stock for the period 1997 through 2021 in Figure 1. For Missouri, real GDP increased at a 1.29 percent average annual rate.

Figure 1. Productivity Growth and Capital Stock Growth by State, 1997 through 2021. A two-bar chart for all 50 states comparing percent change in total factor productivity against percent change in physical capital stock; Missouri sits near the bottom of the pack. The blue bar represents the percent change in total factor productivity, and the orange bar represents the percent change in the physical capital stock. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Garofalo and Yamarik (2002).

Across states, Missouri is ranked as the 44th fastest-growing state during this period. During the same period, payroll employment increased at a 0.35 percent average annual rate, and the capital stock increased at a 1.45 percent average annual rate. Lastly, TFP increased at a 0.64 percent average annual rate in Missouri between 1997 and 2021. Note that Missouri also ranked as the 44th fastest-growing state in terms of TFP.

Looking across states, we start by calculating how closely correlated the growth rates in these two measures of productivity (labor productivity and TFP) are. For the data covering 2007 to 2021, the estimated correlation coefficient is 0.57. It is comforting to find that there is a positive correlation between labor productivity growth and TFP growth. However, the correlation is sufficiently weak to indicate that by including capital growth, labor productivity is capturing both TFP growth and capital growth. Since labor productivity includes both TFP and capital per worker, the fact that it is not more tightly correlated with TFP growth indicates that it is capturing changes in capital per worker as well.

We also consider the correlation coefficient between TFP growth, employment growth, capital stock growth, and real GDP growth. For the 1997–2021 sample, Table 3 reports the correlation coefficients taken from the growth accounting across states. More specifically, the question is whether movements in real GDP growth, employment growth, capital growth, and TFP growth are correlated across states.

Table 3

Correlation Coefficients from Growth Accounting, 1997–2021

Income growth is driven by the big three; workers, capital expenditures, and productivity.

Real GDP Growth Empl. Growth Capital Growth TFP Growth
Real GDP Growth 1
Empl. Growth 0.833 1
Capital Growth 0.768 0.531 1
TFP Growth 0.663 0.328 0.205 1

Source: Authors’ calculations

Across states, faster real GDP growth is highly correlated with faster employment growth, faster capital growth, and faster TFP growth, meaning that states with stronger economic growth tend to exhibit these characteristics as well.

However, the correlation between employment growth and capital growth and TFP growth, though positive, is much weaker. Overall, the evidence does support the notion that states with faster productivity growth tend to have faster employment growth.

We are interested in how growth is correlated with educational attainment across states. We have the percent of population with bachelor’s degree as the measure of human capital. We have values from the 2000 Census and the 2021 Current Population Survey plotted in Figure 2. A clear observation in the data is the gain in educational attainment in every state over the 21-year period. Thus, there is clear evidence of human capital investment in each state. Massachusetts reports a 27-percentage-point increase in the percent of population with a bachelor’s degree between 2000 and 2021. Missouri reported a nearly 18-percentage-point increase in the percent of population with a bachelor’s degree between 2000 and 2021. Missouri tied for the 27th-largest increase in the change in educational attainment among the states.

Figure 2. Percent of Population with Bachelor's Degree, 2000 and 2021. A grouped bar chart for all 50 states showing attainment in 2000 versus 2021; every state increased, with Missouri near the middle, ranking 27th in change in educational attainment. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The evidence suggests that states with faster productivity growth do, on average, have higher educational attainment levels. The correlation is statistically significant, but the coefficient is small. The results are as follows. Based on the educational attainment level in 2000, real GDP growth is positively correlated with educational attainment and the coefficient equal to 0.39. Alternatively, using the educational attainment level in 2021, the correlation coefficient is 0.24 between real GDP growth and educational attainment. A third correlation is calculated for the change in educational attainment, measured as the difference between educational attainment in 2021 less educational attainment in 2000. The correlation coefficient is 0.1 between real GDP growth and the change in educational attainment.

The evidence suggests that TFP is more closely correlated with educational attainment than real GDP growth is, but only incrementally. With educational attainment measured in 2000, the correlation between TFP growth and educational attainment is 0.51. If we use educational attainment in 2021 as the measure of human capital, the correlation coefficient is 0.34. Lastly, with the change in educational attainment, the correlation coefficient is 0.17 between TFP growth and the changes in educational attainment. The evidence, therefore, indicates that states with higher educational attainment levels are, on average, states that report higher total factor productivity growth. In each case, the correlation is statistically significant.7

Taxes and Growth

In this last section, we present a simple mechanism through which changes in tax rates affect changes in economic growth. The key mechanism is the return to input.

The work by Romer (1986), Lucas (1988), Jones and Manuelli (1990), and Rebelo (1991) sparked a revolution in the way researchers thought about economic growth. Earlier approaches treated technological progress as something that occurred outside the economy. In contrast, this research showed that growth is influenced by the decisions of individuals and firms, particularly their incentives to invest, innovate, and accumulate knowledge. People’s responses to incentives are reflected in the economy as changes in TFP.

There is a common thread across each technological development. Specifically, the key incentive is the return to investing in things that generate faster productivity growth and ultimately, high growth rates. Put more simply, people balance the trade-off between consuming today with the opportunity of greater (expected) consumption in the future. Future consumption gains are achieved by making the economic pie bigger for a given population. And that bigger pie comes from accumulating knowledge and investing in new methods, new technologies, and consequently, productivity gains. The economic process is analogous to sowing and reaping.

As with forward-looking economic decisions, how much to reap and sow depends on the expected return. The expected return is measured in terms of dollars spent today on the investment and the future dollars received—that is, income generated—by the investment. Moreover, it is the after-tax returns that matter to the investor. The equation derived from this problem indicates that the growth rate of income is a function of the expected real, after-tax return on the investment.

Now, we can see clearly how income tax rates affect growth. Growth depends on after-tax returns. And after-tax returns are negatively related to income tax rates. The intuition is straightforward. A higher income tax rate, for example, reduces the after-tax real return on investments. With the decline in the after-tax real return, the incentive to invest declines and correspondingly, the growth rate declines.

In an earlier paper, Castell and Haslag (2010) calculated the effects of state income tax reduction on real GDP growth. Their analysis predicted that real GDP growth rates would increase about 80 basis points given a six-percentage-point decrease in the state income tax. Using an endogenous growth model that incorporates the impact of productivity on economic growth rates, Crader and Haslag (2019) find that state income tax elimination would add a projected 25 to 50 basis points to the average annual economic growth rate.8

In a recent report, the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) looked at the impact that reducing state income tax rates would have on the user cost of physical capital investment. The CEA asked how big the gain to median annual income would be if state income taxes were eliminated. Based on the CEA’s projections, median annual income would rise by nearly $2,900 from ending the state income tax.

The growth model presented above is different in that the projection is a once-and-for-all increase in the growth rate. Compounding would increase the impact of a modest 25-basis-point increase in Missouri’s GDP growth rate such that income would be nearly $1,800 higher in 2035 without the state income tax, and $2,900 if the growth rate increases by 50 basis points. Because these models capture different mechanisms, their wage impacts are additive, so the boost to median annual income could be about $5,800.

Conclusions

Just as Adam Smith used economics to study the determinants of the wealth of nations, the tools of modern economic analysis allow us to study the wealth of states. Despite being part of the same country, some states consistently outpace others in annual economic growth, and with it, wages and incomes. The analysis in this paper reveals that growth differences are no fluke. The single biggest driver of economic growth is labor productivity growth. This insight has major implications for state policy, ranging from tax policy to regulations to education policy. Unfortunately, Missouri has for years demonstrated low productivity growth and economic growth relative to many other states in the country, but proposals to eliminate the income tax could make significant progress in pushing Missouri closer to the front of the pack.

Notes

  1. State-level capital stock data are available for download at https://cfds.henuecon.education/index.php/data/yes-capital-data. ↩
  2. See, for example, the discussion by Anderson and Geras (2022) or the discussion in Chapter 11 of Champ, Freeman and Haslag (2022). ↩
  3. Missouri reported that real GDP increased at 0.92 percent average annual rate between 2007 and 2023. ↩
  4. The statistical significance means that if one were to suppose that the estimated coefficient is equal to zero, there is less than a one-percent probability that the hypothesis is supported by the data. More formally, one would reject the null hypothesis that there is no relationship between real personal income growth and labor productivity growth across states. ↩
  5. To be more clear about the distinction between correlation and causation, it is important to put appropriate limits on interpreting these correlations. What we have is evidence suggesting that states with faster employment growth in these six sectors tend to be states with faster income growth. There is also some evidence suggesting that faster employment growth in several sectors indicates a positive relationship between labor productivity growth across states. However, there is no causal link in these simple correlations. To illustrate on the supply side, faster employment growth means increases in workers and their pay; that leads to labor income rising, resulting in faster income growth. Income growth can also arise because of capital deepening; in other words, more investment in physical capital per worker will result in faster income growth. Through greater demand for products, faster employment growth can follow faster income growth. The simple correlation cannot identify which process is driving the results in Table 2. ↩
  6. Those with calculus backgrounds can do a logarithmic transform of equation 2 and take the derivative with respect to time. ↩
  7. Compared with the correlation coefficient reported with real GDP growth, the modest increase in the correlation coefficient between TFP and educational attainment suggests that educational attainment is negatively correlated with the sum of employment growth and physical capital growth. In other words, states with higher educational attainment tend to have a lower sum of employment growth and physical capital growth. Such evidence suggests that more educated workers can substitute for the sum of workers and physical capital. More productive workers reduce the sum of workers and capital required. ↩
  8. Based on a reduction in the average effective income tax rate from 3.5 percent to zero. ↩

References

Anderson, R.B. and M. Geras, 2022. “Correlation Versus Causation.” In: Encyclopedia of Big Data, Laurie A. Schintler and Connie L. McNeely, eds, Cham, Switzerland: Springer Cam.

Casteel, Grant and Joseph H. Haslag, Joseph H. 2011. “Income Taxes vs. Sales Taxes: A Welfare Comparison,” Show-Me Institute Essay. December 2010.

Chamo, Bruce, Scott Freeman and Joseph H. Haslag, 2022. Modeling Monetary Economies, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Crader, G. Dean and Joseph H. Haslag, 2019. “Computing State Average Marginal Income Tax Rates: An Application to Missouri,” Growth and Change, 50(1):424–45.

Garofalo, Gasper A. and Steven Yamarik, 2002. “Regional Convergence: Evidence from a new State-by-State Capital Stock Series,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2):316–23.

Jones, Larry E. and Rodolfo Manuelli, 1990. “A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications,” Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part1):1008–38.

Lucas, Robert E., Jr., 1988. “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22:3–42.

Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. “Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-run Growth,” Journal of Political Economy, 99(3):500–21.

Romer, Paul M. 1986. “Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,” Journal of Political Economy, 94:1002–37.

White House Council of Economic Advisers, 2026. “The Economic Impact of State Income Tax Elimination.” https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-Economic-Impact-of-State-Income-Tax-Elimination.pdf.

Yamarik, Steven and Makram El-Shagi, 2019. “State-level Capital and Investment: Refinements and Updates,” Growth and Change, 50(4):1411–22.



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]]> On June 17, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the City of St. Louis Board of Police Commissioners regarding the police department budget. Click here to read the full testimony.

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]]> On April 8, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri Senate Transportation, Infrastructure, and Public Safety Committee regarding the regulation of autonomous vehicles. Click here to read the full testimony.

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]]> The Public Safety Climate in the City of St. Louis https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/criminal-justice/the-public-safety-climate-in-the-city-of-st-louis/ Mon, 23 Mar 2026 18:18:41 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=602772 The Show-Me Institute’s latest examination of St. Louis crime trends offers a nuanced look at what is happening in the city. While recent headlines have celebrated historic drops in crime, […]

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]]> The Show-Me Institute’s latest examination of St. Louis crime trends offers a nuanced look at what is happening in the city. While recent headlines have celebrated historic drops in crime, this analysis digs deeper into the data to explore whether these trends represent a temporary dip or a sustainable shift toward public safety.

While 2025 was a record-breaking year for the St. Louis as homicides fell to new lows and overall crime dropped by 16 percent. However, there remains a persistent gap between reported data and public perception. Even as the major numbers like homicides and carjackings decline, other issues keep the public on edge. Offenses such as aggravated assaults and vehicle thefts remain high, reminding residents that the threat of violence and serious property crime is still present. Finally, visible signs of disorder like graffiti and aggressive panhandling reinforce the feeling that the city is not yet fully under control.

As this report makes clear, there is more work to be done before St. Louisans and visitors to the city will feel safe walking alone at night. But some potential policy solutions have emerged from this analysis, and we look forward to continuing the conversation.

Click here to read the full report

Key Takeaways from the Report

  • Most types of crime in St. Louis have declined consistently over the past 20 years. The major exceptions are homicide, which has declined from its COVID spike in 2021 but remains on a slightly upward trajectory on a per-capita basis, and motor vehicle theft, which spiked substantially in 2020.
  • Although St. Louis once had considerably higher per-capita rates of aggravated assault, larceny, burglary, and robbery than Kansas City or Springfield, the three cities — the largest three cities in Missouri — are now quite similar.
  • When compared to similar U.S. cities (Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, and Mobile), St. Louis’s crime rates (with the exception of homicide and motor vehicle theft) follow similar trends. The one exception is Memphis, which has become more dangerous than St. Louis in recent years.
  • Since 2021, St. Louis has improved its clearance rates for homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary. Clearance rates for homicide have been as high as 70 percent in recent years.
  • Motor vehicle thefts largely go unsolved in St. Louis; over the last 10 years, just one out of 10 has been cleared annually.
  • Estimates of the number of Missourians who were victims of crime, compared to reported crimes, suggest that as many as 50 percent of violent crimes and 65 percent of property crimes in the state may go unreported. So, although the number of reported crimes has declined in recent years, total crimes committed may not have.
  • Although it happened over a decade ago, the shooting of Michael Brown and the subsequent “Ferguson Effect” have had an impact on the relationship between St. Louis police officers and the community. A lack of trust in the police force may still be contributing to crimes going unreported.
  • The St. Louis 911 system has been plagued by staffing shortages and other challenges that have left response times below national targets. Construction of a new 911 center is underway, but it has been delayed.
  • Media sensationalism around violent crime, and homicides in particular, in St. Louis led to distorted perceptions regarding public safety (or the lack thereof) in the city.
  • While violent crimes, including homicides, are concentrated in a few of the poorest neighborhoods in St. Louis, crimes of public disorder, such as vandalism, vagrancy, trash in the street, and aggressive panhandling are concentrated in the downtown and Central West End neighborhoods, where visitors are more likely to spend time. This may contribute to St. Louis’s reputation as a dangerous city to visit.
Pendergrass and Tuohey - Crime in STL_NO WATERMARK

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The Public Safety Climate in the City of St Louis –  January 21, 2026:

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Episode Transcript

Zach Lawhorn (00:00) Welcome to the Show Me Institute podcast. I’m Zach Lawhorn from Show Me Opportunity, and today I’m joined by Susan Pendergrass and Patrick Tuohey from the Show Me Institute. Today we’re going to be talking about some work that the two of you have done on public safety and crime, specifically in the city of St. Louis. But before we get into the project, I want to talk to you both about your perception of crime as people who have both lived in and frequently visit the city of St. Louis. So Susan, I want to start with you. Before you started this project, before you started looking at the data, when someone said “Is the city of St. Louis dangerous?” what was your perception before you started this project?

Susan Pendergrass (00:38) I only moved to the city of St. Louis in 2015, so there’s a long period of time before I lived there. I was in D.C. for part of that, and my perception before I moved there was that it was dangerous. The Ferguson incident had just happened and I knew that there was a lot of crime. But then when I moved to St. Louis, my husband and I decided to live in the city itself and we loved our neighborhood. It was the coolest with this super cool house built around the time of the World’s Fair. It was amazing. But I never felt really safe. We started leaving our car doors unlocked because our cars would get rifled through. We had a smash-and-grab right within two weeks. I called to report the smash-and-grab and was told that they don’t take reports on them. That was new for me. We had to keep a lot of lights on outside. We didn’t really walk our dogs after dark. I felt like lots of times I would go by police cars sitting on corners idling, but it didn’t necessarily make me feel safer because I wasn’t sure how much they were doing. I also realized people run stoplights, run stop signs, use the right parking lane to pass, and that was all new for me. So I got this feeling that the rule of law wasn’t enforced very well in the city, and that just doesn’t feel good as somebody who has bought a house there and lives there.

Zach Lawhorn (02:06) Patrick, as someone who lives in Kansas City across the state, two questions. What do you think the perception is over there on the western half of the state? And then as someone who comes into St. Louis regularly, what was your perception of the safety situation in the city?

Patrick Tuohey (02:22) A lot of the issues that Susan and I explored in this paper bore out here in Kansas City. I’ve lived in cities my whole life. I understand that every city is going to have the parts you don’t want to go to, the parts that are rougher than others. Kansas City certainly has that. I’ve had my car broken into here in my driveway a number of times, no real damage, and it’s not something I reported to the police. As far as traveling to St. Louis, I’ve been going to St. Louis since the late nineties. Before I lived in Kansas City, I was in Washington, D.C. And I loved St. Louis. I still do. I would visit Creve Coeur, the Central West End, sometimes stay at the Westin downtown. But living in D.C. and growing up in D.C., I understood that every city is going to have the places that you don’t want to go. I understood that St. Louis often gets ranked higher than it should because the city’s footprint is so small. But it never felt to me that what was going on in St. Louis was way outside the normal limits of what we see in U.S. cities. There are those dangerous parts and you generally know not to go there. There is kind of an urban decline, which can be seen in a lack of services, graffiti, uncut grass. But I didn’t navigate St. Louis or think of St. Louis any differently than I thought of Kansas City, Washington D.C., Boston, or any other place I had been.

Zach Lawhorn (04:03) Yeah, and I’m glad you brought up the population of the city, the MSA. It seems like when there are national or even local news stories written on crime statistics in St. Louis, people will point out that if you’re not talking about the larger metropolitan area, you get down to actually a pretty small population number for U.S. cities. So for this work that we’re going to be talking about, can you define what area you guys looked at? When we say murders are a certain number, what area are we specifically talking about?

Patrick Tuohey (04:38) We looked at the city of St. Louis specifically, just those few square miles. We did not look at the metropolitan area and we did not look at the county. It is fair to want to combine all that data into one region, but oftentimes I think people want to do that to mask the seriousness of homicide and violent crime and property crime in the city. And that’s what we wanted to talk about. What is true in St. Louis is not unique to St. Louis. Kansas City has a crime problem that is not reflected in our metropolitan area. That’s true in Washington D.C., Atlanta, Los Angeles, everywhere. So I understand why people who live in St. Louis feel that you can cook the numbers by just looking at the city, but that’s true in every urban environment.

Susan Pendergrass (05:30) We also compared St. Louis to four other cities, and one of them in particular, Cincinnati, ended up being very similar. We wrote a paper and at the back of the paper there’s a table with variables on which we compared them. Similar size, similar poverty, similar median income, very similar. So to say that St. Louis is this very unique outlier and is the only city in the United States that has this situation where, essentially 100-plus years ago, St. Louis was so much better and more metropolitan and forward-thinking than the rest of the state of Missouri, and safer and wealthier, that they drew a line around the city of St. Louis and said we are going to be our own thing and we’re going to have our own police. It was called the Great Divorce. Now that line, the arrows are sort of pointing different ways, where St. Louis County isn’t necessarily excited to absorb the city of St. Louis and its services, systems, police departments, and 911 systems, because it is a uniquely crime-ridden area in parts. So while it would be nice to, as Patrick mentioned, just water down all the numbers by mixing them into a safer pot, it would really mask what’s going on.

Zach Lawhorn (06:47) Susan, you used the word “unique” there to describe the setup. Patrick, does that genuinely make it harder to talk about this topic? In the last few months you’ve had some public events, and we’re going to talk about those in a minute. But as you’ve gone through this process, do you think the unique setup has made it harder? Is there more throat-clearing and definitional work that goes into it?

Patrick Tuohey (07:12) I don’t know that what St. Louis is dealing with is unique. Yes, the city has a particularly small footprint. It is as if you drew a line around just the bad neighborhood in your community and tried to use that small footprint to describe the whole area. I get that argument. But if it’s true by a matter of degree, it’s not uniquely true of St. Louis. And it’s something that the city needs to deal with and understand rather than try to paper over. As Susan said, there are real problems in the city. Their population decline is only exacerbating those problems because there’s less revenue. And frankly, the history of the city going back decades has been that the image of the city is dysfunctional, and not just on public safety, on lots of issues. So although I understand that people say they don’t just want to talk about the city when it comes to crime, St. Louis, while it’s got lots of opportunities and strengths, doesn’t do itself any favors by combining all this stuff and whistling past the graveyard. People in this country know that St. Louis has a crime problem. You don’t solve it by redirecting people.

Zach Lawhorn (08:30) Okay, and let’s talk about that crime problem. Susan, when we use the word “crime” in this context, what are we talking about? Murders? Car break-ins? Lay it out for us.

Susan Pendergrass (08:42) We have violent crime and property crime. Violent crime is murders, aggravated assault, and robbery. Property crimes are larceny and motor vehicle thefts. In our report, we break them all out separately. Murders are the one crime area that the media likes to focus on: how many murders, which city is the murder capital, did we have 150, did we have 200, are they down? They are certainly down in the last two years, to be clear. Murder rates are down. Aggravated assault rates are not down by as much. And sometimes the difference between aggravated assault and murder is how fast the ambulance drives. We still have a lot of violent crimes against people happening. We certainly have a lot of motor vehicle thefts. That’s an area of crime that spiked during COVID, particularly for Kias and Hyundais, and it’s come down, but it’s still a very high number. While it is wonderful that crime has come down across these areas in many cases, the numbers are still pretty high, particularly on a per capita basis, which is how we translate all the crime rates so we can compare them with other cities.

Zach Lawhorn (10:00) So you said crime is down. Is it fair to classify it as it was really bad and now it’s just bad? It was terrible, now it’s just bad. How would you summarize what you found with the drop in crime?

Susan Pendergrass (10:13) Crime’s been dropping since the 80s, so we had much worse crime decades ago. It’s been dropping, it spiked during the pandemic, and it is continuing basically down. Now, when you look at the murder rate per capita in the city of St. Louis, it is still on a slightly upward trend, the number of murders per people, and that could be driven by the fact that Missouri is losing population at a pretty good clip. We have more deaths than births. So on a per capita basis maybe not quite the same, but in terms of actual numbers, crime has been coming down for some time. Crime overall peaked in the late 80s and 90s.

Zach Lawhorn (10:58) Patrick, we talked about your perception and the relevance of many other cities. Did that surprise you, the finding that crime is down? Or was that kind of what you expected?

Patrick Tuohey (11:09) No, the data showing that crime in St. Louis was down wasn’t a surprise. It’s certainly been nice to see that it’s been down year after year. This doesn’t appear to be just a one-off good year. And I’ve known that the mayor and the police chief have been talking about these positive numbers for a while. What I was really interested in with this paper was perception of crime. That’s what I’ve really wrestled with, both at events in the city and in the county. It is a difficult problem to overcome because you can have good numbers like St. Louis has and yet people still rely on that decades-old impression. That’s not something you can address just by waving away the numbers downtown. You have to wrestle with it. You have to admit it, and you have to figure out how do you get people to accept good news, and then how do you make them confident that that good news is going to continue? It’s so easy these days, especially with cities, to just be a pessimist and to say that things are down and won’t ever continue to go down. It is a problem that St. Louis has, but St. Louis isn’t alone in having it. The news on crime is good all over the country, yet perceptions about crime all over the country are still very much with us.

Susan Pendergrass (12:43) There’s a survey question that’s often asked: do you feel safe walking outside alone at night? And those numbers aren’t down. As Patrick mentioned, you have graffiti and trash not being picked up and panhandling and homelessness. Those numbers aren’t necessarily down. But we did look at St. Louis on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis, and it is true that out of 16 neighborhoods, four or five have basically no crime, they’re crime-free. But then there are some other pockets that have most of the murders concentrated in one neighborhood. So it isn’t equal across all the neighborhoods. There are some that have very little crime, but it’s hard to convince folks of that when they drive through the ones that have public disorder and still don’t feel safe.

Zach Lawhorn (13:29) Susan, as a researcher trying to ultimately figure out why things happen, you mentioned that crime is down across the country. Would it be easier if it was just a few select cities, so you could actually go and say what is Boston doing different, what is Memphis doing? Does it make it harder to find the “why” since it seems like it’s kind of across the board?

Susan Pendergrass (13:45) Yeah. There have been other periods of time when crime has gone down and then gone back up again. I personally believe, and this is not based on any research I’ve done, that cameras being absolutely everywhere makes it harder to commit crimes. You cannot basically travel through the world anymore without being on a camera somewhere. Police body cams probably make it harder to commit crimes too. I feel like we’re getting into more of a surveillance state, and maybe that’s what’s bringing crime down. I’ve heard that Detroit has brought crime down faster than other cities, that Pittsburgh is feeling safer, Chattanooga is feeling safer, Memphis feeling less safe. So it would be worthwhile to look into some of these differences. But I don’t think our research has yet pointed to a clear reason why it’s happening.

Patrick Tuohey (14:41) Let me follow up on that because Susan’s exactly right, and I think your question gets to that point. Crime is down nationwide, down in all cities if I remember correctly, and we don’t really know why. And it’s not just Susan and I that don’t know why. Susan has spoken with public safety and crime experts from all over the country, and that’s really frustrating from a public policy research point of view, because you would love to have that outlier, that one city, maybe Boston or Omaha, that tried something novel and got results unlike everybody else. But crime is so difficult because there are so many contributors. Some people want to point to the availability of guns. Some people want to talk about root causes. Some people want to talk about the number of police, the severity of crime, the clearance rate, population growth, new development, basic services like picking up the trash and making sure the streetlights work. And all of those things are right, all those things contribute. So it’s really difficult to figure out which one is driving the change. And sometimes, as Susan pointed out, you may just get a dip and there’s no explaining it. In 2014, in Kansas City, our mayor and police chief at the time came out and had a press conference because they were so proud of the homicide drop the previous year. There was a lot of back-slapping and self-congratulation. Then when the homicide rate went back up the next year, you couldn’t get those guys to answer a basic question. Policymakers are, and maybe rightly so, really shy about claiming credit, because they don’t want to be called to task a year later when the numbers reverse. The good news is that the numbers are trending down, and that’s always good. The frustration is it’s very difficult to figure out why and then make recommendations. We’re all kind of scratching our heads. Although again, this is a good problem to have. The numbers are heading in the right direction and we ought to be happy about that.

Zach Lawhorn (16:58) Patrick, to get a better idea of the perception side, you did the hard work of going to the people. In January and February you moderated events. We had one in the city of St. Louis and one in St. Louis County. There are full recordings of the events available at showmeinstitute.org. You had a panel of experts and spent a lot of time getting feedback from attendees who lived in the city and the county. What were your takeaways? Are they buying that crime is getting better?

Patrick Tuohey (17:33) No, in a word, they don’t. We gave them a short survey before the event. A lot of them believed that crime was important, certainly, but they didn’t necessarily believe that crime was getting better. They weren’t necessarily optimistic that crime was going to be better in St. Louis City in the next five years, and that was certainly true in the county. I wanted to press these audience members: what would it take for you to believe this good news? And I think sometimes they just didn’t want to believe anything. We got the frustrating line: “there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” That’s a cute thing to say, but it really doesn’t help you explain your own view. If you’re just going to say you believe it’s bad and always going to be bad, that doesn’t get us anywhere. We were happy to have representatives from the Circuit Attorney’s office at both events, and they struggle with this too. They can do a better job. They can prosecute more and different cases, they can do it faster. The police can certainly improve their clearance rate. But public policymakers in those cities, in every city, are going to have to realize that they may have to continue that grind, doing the hard work of lowering crime, and they’re not going to get the attaboys from the people in their city or the communities around them. That’s just a reality. One of the panelists talked about how perception of crime is often a lagging indicator. When crime goes up, people feel it immediately. But when crime goes down, it may take a few years. The tough news for the people who lead St. Louis City is you may have to keep doing this for another 10 years before you get any credit for being successful. And that’s really tough in politics because people want that immediate payoff, that immediate

Susan Pendergrass (19:15) You

Patrick Tuohey (19:31) applause, that immediate press conference and support.

Susan Pendergrass (19:34) Patrick and I have been thinking about the things that could happen that could make a difference, that could maybe make people feel safer. Number one: when you see a crime happening, you need to be able to have faith that you can report it and somebody will respond. And that is not happening right now in the city of St. Louis. We’ve called several times about crimes and nobody showed up. You need to have faith in the 911 system, and the 911 system needs to function. We have about 28 different systems in the county. They’re building a new 911 center in the city that’s going to consolidate services, but it’s not finished. It’s going to be some time before it’s fully functioning. We also need to know that the police will be able to solve these crimes. They need resources. They need to be able to do DNA testing and rape kits and DNA. They need money to do those things. They need detectives. We need to know that these crimes can get solved, and then we need to know that the crimes are prosecuted. I think if these pieces on the front end, not just the “lock them up” approach, but on the front end, people would feel safer if they felt like they could call somebody and somebody would respond and something would happen. I’m not sure that’s happening right now. And until it does, people, especially when they start having small children, are probably going to move out.

Patrick Tuohey (20:59) What we’ve known since at least 1961, when Jane Jacobs wrote The Death and Life of Great American Cities, is that you sometimes just need eyes on the street. Shop owners, pedestrians, people walking around. Cameras can reduce crime, but they’re kind of abstract and tucked in corners. When a street is vibrant, when it’s got people living there, when you’ve got kids playing in the street and families on the porch, there’s that sense of being watched, being seen. But because St. Louis has been in this population spiral, how do you bring people back into the city? The city talks about economic development subsidies all the time, but that’s about bringing in amenities and employers. Maybe what the city needs to do is figure out how to bring in people. And oftentimes it’s the non-crime-related policies, the housing policies, the regulations, the tax structure, that keep people out. Crime is one of those, but the city could open itself up to urban homesteaders who want to come in and rehab these old houses. What has struck me about St. Louis for the decades I’ve been going there is just the absolutely beautiful old neighborhoods, the incredible housing stock. Susan talked about living in a house that was built for the World’s Fair. There are gorgeous neighborhoods in St. Louis, and it’s the barriers to entry, red tape and government regulation, that are keeping people out, I have to believe. Crime is one of them, to be sure. But I am confident there are people who would love to move into those old houses and revitalize those old neighborhoods, because they’re just so gorgeous and so walkable. And it’s been done in other cities. DuPont Circle in Washington D.C. was a slow process of rehabbing neighborhoods block by block, and now 30 years later it is a vibrant community.

Zach Lawhorn (23:03) Susan, you mentioned the 911 system. I know in the report you don’t get into specific solutions, and I know we’re still kind of in the measuring-the-problem stage and trying to figure out next steps, but beyond the 911 system, are there any areas you’d consider low-hanging fruit worth considering moving forward?

Susan Pendergrass (23:25) The legislature passed and the governor signed a violent crime clearance grant program last year that cities like St. Louis could apply for, funding to hire detectives, do DNA testing, collect data, and other activities directly focused on solving crimes. The legislature has not appropriated any money for that program. If they did, St. Louis could apply for those funds. We also have, and I don’t know the exact number as I say this, but at least 100 open police positions in the department. Those are hard to fill. The policies that have been tried, like no longer requiring officers to live within the city and across-the-board raises, none of those have really made a difference. So we need recruitment and retention policies that could actually work. And as I mentioned with the 911 system, triaging calls and making sure the correct agency responds when a crime has been committed. There are community violence intervention programs that have been tried in some places, and using neighborhood-by-neighborhood data to focus in on where crimes are really happening. Those are all things we’d like to explore further: what is the cost of these programs, what is the likelihood that they’ll improve things, and what are some feasible ways to get them done.

Zach Lawhorn (24:54) So there’s the PR part of it. The city’s got a PR problem. There’s the need for more cops. We need people to be able to call 911. We need people to actually be prosecuted for crimes. That all seems doable.

Susan Pendergrass (24:58) Yeah.

Zach Lawhorn (25:06) Where do you think the city of St. Louis is at right now? Are we in a good place? Are we in just an improved place where it could still be a few years? How are you feeling about public safety in the city of St. Louis right now?

Susan Pendergrass (25:21) I don’t want to be a wet blanket. I love the city of St. Louis and I want it to succeed wildly. But I’m concerned that they’re going to say murders are down and these other crimes are down, but people are still running stop signs and stoplights, there are still panhandlers, and trash still isn’t being picked up. They’re not really fixing the small things that make people feel safe. They’re sort of focused on these big numbers. It could be like a school improving ACT scores. You have to be really careful if you’re just focusing on one aspect, because these big crime numbers being down could be hiding a lot of other stuff that really needs to be done and focused on. So I’m cautiously optimistic, I guess.

Patrick Tuohey (26:05) I’m optimistic because crime is going down everywhere, and I think it will probably continue to go down at least for the next few years, for reasons that may have nothing to do with the management of St. Louis. Part of it is because Susan and I have been reviewing the research for the last few months, and there is so much out there, primary research on crime and secondary, that talks about exactly the things Susan hit upon: the environment, picking up trash, cleaning up graffiti, fixing sidewalks, making sure the streetlights are lit. We know so much more about what drives crime, or at least what can ameliorate it, that even if we don’t know the specifics of what’s going on now, city leaders and state leaders are much more aware of what they can do to make communities not just safer but feel safe. And again, it is frustrating because you can say the numbers are down, but until people feel safe and want to go downtown and take advantage of what the city has to offer, we’re not going to see that public perception change. So yes, I think the public perception is accurate in as much as that is what people feel, but I don’t think it reflects what’s actually going on in St. Louis or in the county.

Zach Lawhorn (27:20) And we will leave it there. The report, The Public Safety Climate in the City of St. Louis, is available at showmeinstitute.org. If you want to watch the full recordings of the events that Patrick moderated, those are available right now at showmeinstitute.org. Susan, Patrick, thank you very much.

Susan Pendergrass (27:36) Thank you.

Patrick Tuohey (27:36) Thank you.

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]]> Sale of Surplus Firefighting Equipment https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/budget-and-spending/sale-of-surplus-firefighting-equipment/ Wed, 28 Jan 2026 22:24:36 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=601873 On January 29, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri House Special Committee on Intergovernmental Affairs regarding sale of surplus firefighting equipment. Click here […]

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]]> On January 29, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri House Special Committee on Intergovernmental Affairs regarding sale of surplus firefighting equipment. Click here to read the full testimony.

The post Sale of Surplus Firefighting Equipment appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

]]> Regulations Concerning Autonomous Vehicles: Senate Bill 1050 https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/transportation/regulations-concerning-autonomous-vehicles-senate-bill-1050/ Fri, 23 Jan 2026 21:40:29 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=601803 On January 26, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri Senate Transportation, Infrastructure, and Public Safety Committee regarding regulation of autonomous vehicles. Click here to […]

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]]> On January 26, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri Senate Transportation, Infrastructure, and Public Safety Committee regarding regulation of autonomous vehicles. Click here to read the full testimony.

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]]> House Bill 2155: Reimbursement for Telecom Companies https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/house-bill-2155-reimbursement-for-telecom-companies/ Wed, 21 Jan 2026 17:59:55 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=601741 On January 21, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri House General Laws Committee regarding reimbursement for telecom companies for moving equipment during road […]

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]]> On January 21, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri House General Laws Committee regarding reimbursement for telecom companies for moving equipment during road projects. Click here to read the full testimony.

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]]> Autonomous Vehicle Regulation https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/regulation/autonomous-vehicle-regulation/ Mon, 12 Jan 2026 17:46:55 +0000 https://showme.beanstalkweb.com/?post_type=publication&p=601614 On January 12, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri House Emerging Issues Committee regarding the regulation of autonomous vehicles. Click here to read the […]

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]]> On January 12, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri House Emerging Issues Committee regarding the regulation of autonomous vehicles. Click here to read the full testimony.

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]]> Show-Me Institute’s December 2025 Newsletter https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/show-me-institutes-december-2025-newsletter/ Thu, 01 Jan 2026 17:04:23 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=602735 In this issue: -A tribute to the late Joe Forshaw -Lessons from Robert Caro’s books about LBJ -Springfield voters declining to subsidize a convention center -Traditional public schools signing on […]

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]]> In this issue:

-A tribute to the late Joe Forshaw
-Lessons from Robert Caro’s books about LBJ
-Springfield voters declining to subsidize a convention center
-Traditional public schools signing on to MOScholars
-An update on Medicaid’s out-of-control growth in Missouri
-How Missouri could use consumer-regulated electricity to power data centers

Click here to find the newsletter.

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]]> Testimony: St. Louis County Procurement Rules https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/testimony-st-louis-county-procurement-rules/ Tue, 18 Nov 2025 03:37:02 +0000 https://showme.beanstalkweb.com/publication/uncategorized/testimony-st-louis-county-procurement-rules/ On November 18, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the St. Louis County Council regarding procurement rules. Click here to read the full testimony.

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]]> On November 18, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the St. Louis County Council regarding procurement rules. Click here to read the full testimony.

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]]> Missouri Parents’ Bill of Rights https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/missouri-parents-bill-of-rights/ Wed, 12 Nov 2025 13:37:03 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=602955 The Problem Parents play a fundamental role in their children’s education, but a lack of transparency from school districts makes it difficult for them to stay informed. Too often, parents […]

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]]> The Problem

Parents play a fundamental role in their children’s education, but a lack of transparency from school districts makes it difficult for them to stay informed. Too often, parents struggle to determine how well their children’s schools are performing, how taxpayer dollars are being spent, and what is being taught in the classroom. School districts often make it financially prohibitive for parents to access the information they need to hold schools accountable.

The Solution

The fundamental right of parents to participate in and direct the education of their children should be affirmed in state law with the adoption of a parents’ bill of rights. The parents’ bill of rights would require districts to provide parents with clear information about what is happening in their children’s schools.

Key Facts

  • In 2025, the Heritage Foundation ranked Missouri 45th in educational transparency among the 50 states and Washington, D.C.
  • Sunshine Law requests sent in recent years by the Show-Me Institute seeking curriculum information from Missouri schools and districts were often ignored or met with demands for tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands, of dollars to process the requests.

Which Rights Should Be Included in Statute?

At a minimum, parents should have:

  • The right to know what Missouri schools are teaching.

  • The right to know how Missouri schools are performing.

  • The right to know how Missouri schools are spending taxpayer money.

  • The right to choose the educational option that works best for their children.

  • The right to know their children’s physical and mental health and to be informed when concerns arise. This includes, but is not limited to, the right to opt out of health measures not required by state law.

Public Schooling in Partnership with Parents

Schooling works best when parents and educators work together. However, school district policies increasingly undermine such cooperation through a lack of transparency. Missouri’s Sunshine Law is intended to ensure openness in public agencies, yet many school districts routinely claim that fulfilling Sunshine Law requests is prohibitively expensive, then pass those inflated costs on to the requester. This practice effectively blocks Missourians from accessing important information, such as which curriculum materials are being used in their local schools. There is also a growing trend among public schools to withhold information about student health from parents.

The state needs to take action to expand access to information among parents. School districts that fail to comply should be subject to meaningful financial and administrative penalties. Transparency and accountability in local government, including schools, should not be optional. The law must have strong, unambiguous consequences attached to violations of its provisions.

Policy Recommendations

  • Pass a parents’ bill of rights into law so that schools and districts understand the rights and expectations of the parents and taxpayers who fund their operations.
  • Ensure that the law includes “teeth” —real consequences for violations—so that it isn’t seen merely as a set of recommendations that can be violated without penalty by school districts.

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]]> Budgetary Reform https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/budgetary-reform/ Wed, 12 Nov 2025 08:26:59 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=602995 The Problem Missouri’s budget is growing faster than the state’s economy, and if this troubling trend continues it could soon prove disastrous for state taxpayers. The Solution Limit spending growth, […]

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]]> The Problem

Missouri’s budget is growing faster than the state’s economy, and if this troubling trend continues it could soon prove disastrous for state taxpayers.

The Solution

Limit spending growth, increase accountability, and improve budget resilience through reforms that prioritize Missouri’s long-term financial health.

Key Facts

  • Missouri’s government is growing faster than inflation, wages, and the state’s population.
  • Currently, state budgeting practices actually encourage greater spending.
  • Most state budget documents aren’t easy for citizens to find, nor are they available in a form that is easy to use.
  • Missouri awards nearly $1 billion each year in tax credits, which are the fiscal equivalent of state spending, completely outside of the normal budgeting process.
  • According to Moody’s Analytics, Missouri is one of the least-prepared states in the nation for an economic downturn.

Spending at Record Levels

Missouri’s budget has been growing unsustainably for years, and may finally be reaching a fiscal cliff. After a year when a reduction in spending was promised but not delivered, our state is facing a one-billion-dollar shortfall. Missouri’s Hancock Amendment, which was once thought to provide protections against unchecked government growth, has proved incapable of meaningfully constraining spending. In fact, if Missouri’s budget growth hadn’t drastically outstripped both inflation and population growth over the past five years, the current fiscal crisis could have been avoided entirely.

Current Practices Encourage More and More Spending

Missouri currently uses what is called an “incremental” approach to budgeting, which means that budget items from one year automatically roll over into the next and establish the new baseline for state spending. This practice makes budgeting easier for legislators because it allows them to focus attention on new funding requests, but it also allows many old programs and spending items to escape annual scrutiny. The result is snowballing government growth. Missouri should require legislators to evaluate program effectiveness through performance audits and to regularly use “zero-based budgeting,” meaning that lawmakers must build the state’s budget from square one each year.

You Can’t Fix What You Can’t See

Currently, most state budget documents are difficult to find, hard to interpret, and in a form that requires citizens to manually transcribe the data to be studied. Such hurdles mean that lawmakers and state bureaucrats can act with greater impunity and less oversight. There is no good reason why the documents that detail where taxpayer money is going should not be easy for any citizen to access and understand.

Additionally, Missouri leads much of the nation in the subsidization of private entities with state tax dollars, yet there’s little to no mention of these subsidies in the yearly budget. Last year, Missouri awarded nearly $1 billion in various tax-credit programs with little to show for it. These tax credits are the fiscal equivalent of state expenditures, but because the state forgoes revenue instead of spending it, the credits are allocated completely outside the state’s normal budgeting process. The exclusion of tax credits from yearly scrutiny also removes them from the calculations lawmakers must make when tasked with balancing the state’s budget. A truthful accounting of all tax obligations is required if Missouri is to right its fiscal ship.

Missouri Isn’t Ready for the Next Recession

The boom-bust cycles of state finances create budgetary chaos. Each economic downturn forces elected officials to make difficult spending decisions that can be at odds with the state’s long-term funding priorities. As a result of the 2007-2009 Great Recession, general revenues fell by over $1.2 billion, leading to abrupt cuts in education, corrections, and other spending that lasted for several years after the recession. Almost every other state in the country has a rainy-day fund to help weather these situations, but Missouri’s Budget Reserve Fund is too small and too hamstrung by restrictions to be used in a downturn. In fact, it’s never once been used for this purpose.

Policy Recommendations

  • Establish clear and meaningful state program performance metrics that allow for objective assessments.
  • Implement zero-based budgeting.
  • Make all state budget documents available in easily accessible, machine-readable formats (e.g., in Excel or CSV format).
  • Include all tax credits, or tax expenditures, in the state’s yearly budgeting process.
  • Create a separate budget stabilization fund with the sole task of stabilizing revenues in the event of an economic downturn. The fund should be large enough to fully replace state revenues during a crisis comparable in magnitude to the Great Recession with strong protections against improper use. Repayment to the fund also should be dependent on the pace of economic recovery.

FY 2026 Operating Budget

With approximately 58% of all state spending devoted to education and healthcare, continued budgetary growth puts enormous pressure on every other state spending priority.

GRAPH: A pie chart showing FY 2026 Operating Budget. Education: 19%, Medicaid: 39%, Everything Else: 42%.
Source: Missouri House of Representatives Budget Fast Facts.

Budgetary Growth: Fy 2016-2025

Missouri’s state spending has grown by more than 58% over the past decade.

GRAPH: A bar chart showing budgetary growth from FY 2016-2025, broken down by General Revenue, Federal Funds, Other Funds, and Tax Credits. The total spending increases from under $25 billion in 2016 to over $40 billion in 2025.
Source: Missouri House of Representatives Budget Fast Facts.

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]]> Local Government Transparency https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/local-government-transparency/ Wed, 12 Nov 2025 07:41:20 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=602978 The post Local Government Transparency appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

]]> The Problem

Local governments often hide documents and spending records from the taxpaying public despite requirements under the Sunshine Law that mandate meaningful transparency.

The Solution

Require that local governments report spending information.

Key Facts

  • Missouri already has two programs through which local governments may report their spending to facilitate oversight by the public, but thus far only 33 counties and six municipalities are sharing information.
  • One of the few ways for many taxpayers to obtain detailed information about their government’s expenditures is through the submission of a Sunshine Law request, but this system is fraught with government roadblocks and weak consequences for statutory violations.

A Checkbook for Missouri

The creation of the Show-Me Checkbook by the state treasurer’s office in 2018 and the passage of House Bill 271 in 2021 established voluntary reporting programs in the state for local governments. Yet those developments should be the beginning, not the end, of transparency and accountability for local government in Missouri. Local governing bodies should be required, not invited, to report their spending.

Accountability Pays Dividends

Online transparency portals ensure that rather than responding to Sunshine Law requests for these data, local governments can simply refer requestors to the continuously updating online resource. At the same time, taxpayers will be able to see in an understandable format where their money is going, and they will be able to keep tabs on the activities of elected leaders and bureaucrats when they choose.

Empowering the Auditors

Missouri adopted House Bill 2111 in the 2024 legislative session to increase the authority of the state auditor to investigate reports of malfeasance in local government. This positive change has improved accountability in local government by giving the state auditor the ability to audit local governments without a formal request or a petition drive in cases where financial irregularities are suspected.

Next, the state should consider adopting requirements and standards for local county auditors in Missouri’s larger counties (charter, first, and second-class counties). The quality of local auditing varies dramatically, from good in St. Charles County to basically nonexistent in St. Louis County.

Unfortunately, in 2025 the courts overturned a law imposing stricter reporting standards for municipalities within St. Louis County on the grounds that it was a “special law” applying only within St. Louis County. The legislature should address that issue by making higher reporting standards applicable to municipalities in every Missouri county.

The use of tax dollars to advocate for or against local government ballot issues has received significant attention this year. The time is right for the legislature to restrict or even eliminate the ability of local governments to use tax dollars to share information on ballot issues with voters. Attempts by local governments to be “neutral” generally make a mockery of the idea of neutrality and should be curtailed.

Policy Recommendations

  • Make the reporting of local government spending data to the Show-Me Checkbook and the Missouri Accountability Portal database mandatory rather than voluntary.
  • Expand the now-overturned financial reporting requirements in RSMO §67.287 for municipalities in St. Louis County to all municipalities statewide.
  • Ban the use of tax dollars by local governments to share information on local ballot issues.

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]]> Office of Government Efficiency https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/office-of-government-efficiency/ Wed, 12 Nov 2025 06:20:56 +0000 https://showmeinstitute.org/?post_type=publication&p=603015 The Problem Missouri’s government continues to grow in both size and scope while tax revenues are expected to stagnate in the coming years. The Solution Complete a comprehensive review of […]

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]]> The Problem

Missouri’s government continues to grow in both size and scope while tax revenues are expected to stagnate in the coming years.

The Solution

Complete a comprehensive review of Missouri’s government to rein in unnecessary spending and regulation.

Key Facts

  • Missouri’s net general revenue collections for Fiscal Year 2025 were essentially flat and are expected to be similar in Fiscal Year 2026.
  • Missouri’s spending of state revenue sources has increased by more than 75% over the past five years, and is expected to outpace tax revenue growth in the next few years.
  • Successful state-based efficiency efforts have been enacted across the country over the past 50 years and have saved taxpayers billions of dollars.

Something’s Gotta Give

Missouri’s tax revenue collections have grown at an average rate of nearly 9% over the past five years, but state spending has grown at an even faster rate of more than 10%. To make matters worse, Missouri’s official estimates now project state revenues to remain essentially flat in the coming years. Given that the cost of providing the same level of services increases over time, and that Missouri’s constitution has a balanced-budget requirement, it should be obvious that this troubling trend cannot continue.

Learn from Other States’ Experiences

Nearly 60 years ago, then-California Governor Ronald Reagan established what was perhaps the most successful state-based cost-cutting initiative in history with an executive order. The “Governor’s Survey on Efficiency and Cost Control” enlisted the help of more than 200 private-sector leaders to recommend, in short order, more than 2,000 reforms to improve California’s government operations and reduce costs. All told, the recommendations included savings of upwards of $4.2 billion in today’s dollars.

Over the past year, following the lead of Reagan and the recent work conducted by the federal Department of Government Efficiency, more than 20 states have established their own cost-cutting initiatives. While Missouri’s general assembly created committees last year on the subject, no visible progress has been made on establishing a government efficiency program. Instead of trying to reinvent the wheel, Missouri can look to states that have already achieved success reining in government and take similar actions that could save billions of Missouri taxpayer dollars.

Step One of Many

Rightsizing Missouri’s government will not be easy. It will require leadership from both the executive and legislative branches of Missouri’s government, a clear plan of attack for identifying inefficiencies, and a commitment to exercising fiscal restraint over several years while implementing the reforms necessary to permanently change the state’s fiscal trajectory. This much is clear: There is no longer time to delay. Missouri’s elected officials must start reducing government spending today if there’s any hope of securing our state’s financial future tomorrow.

Policy Recommendations

  • Establish an executive branch-led government efficiency initiative to provide a comprehensive review of Missouri’s government practices.
  • Enlist the help of private-sector leaders to help review government, rein in excess spending, and recommend reforms to improve efficiency while reducing waste.
  • Set clear goals and timelines for the initiative, with commitment from elected officials to make the efficiency recommendations a reality.

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]]> Show-Me Institute’s October 2025 Newsletter https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/show-me-institutes-october-2025-newsletter/ Mon, 20 Oct 2025 21:14:25 +0000 https://showme.beanstalkweb.com/publication/uncategorized/show-me-institutes-october-2025-newsletter/ In this issue: -Potential reforms to the initiative petition process in Missouri -The need for better accountability measures in our schools -The role consultants play in creating harmful economic development […]

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]]> In this issue:

-Potential reforms to the initiative petition process in Missouri
-The need for better accountability measures in our schools
-The role consultants play in creating harmful economic development policies
-Creating free-market policies in energy
-Big changes coming to welfare policy via the One Big Beautiful Bill
-Kansas City’s expensive failures are a warning, not a model

Click here to find the newsletter.

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]]> A Free-Market Guide for Missouri Municipalities, Part Three: Planning and Zoning https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/a-free-market-guide-for-missouri-municipalities-part-three-planning-and-zoning/ Sat, 30 Aug 2025 02:04:24 +0000 http://showmeinstitute.local/publications/a-free-market-guide-for-missouri-municipalities-part-three-planning-and-zoning/ This third installment in the free-market municipality series examines the use of planning and zoning in Missouri cities and suggests reforms to improve how they are implemented and managed. It […]

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]]> This third installment in the free-market municipality series examines the use of planning and zoning in Missouri cities and suggests reforms to improve how they are implemented and managed. It explores several options to expand housing availability while strengthening property rights for Missourians. The report also highlights how the St. Louis and Kansas City metropolitan areas have less restrictive zoning than many comparable cities, and the benefits that result from this.

A Free-Market Guide for Missouri Municipalities, Part Three: Planning and Zoning


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]]> Connecting Nuclear Energy’s Past and Present: Guiding Missouri’s Future https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/energy/connecting-nuclear-energys-past-and-present-guiding-missouris-future/ Tue, 19 Aug 2025 22:19:41 +0000 http://showmeinstitute.local/publications/connecting-nuclear-energys-past-and-present-guiding-missouris-future/ Nuclear power provides nearly 20% of electricity in the United States, yet new construction has stalled even as demand rises. This report examines the past and present of nuclear energy […]

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]]> Nuclear power provides nearly 20% of electricity in the United States, yet new construction has stalled even as demand rises. This report examines the past and present of nuclear energy and outlines how Missouri can position itself for a reliable, affordable, and clean energy future.

Click here to read the full report.

 

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]]> A Missouri Office of Government Efficiency https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/budget-and-spending/a-missouri-office-of-government-efficiency/ Thu, 10 Jul 2025 01:00:19 +0000 https://showme.beanstalkweb.com/publication/uncategorized/a-missouri-office-of-government-efficiency/ The post A Missouri Office of Government Efficiency appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

]]> The post A Missouri Office of Government Efficiency appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

]]> Show-Me Institute’s June 2025 Newsletter https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/state-and-local-government/show-me-institutes-june-2025-newsletter/ Fri, 27 Jun 2025 00:39:51 +0000 http://showmeinstitute.local/publications/show-me-institutes-june-2025-newsletter/ In this issue: -An assessment of the 2025 legislative session -The trend of unfairly blaming landlords for a variety of ills -The extremely poor performance of Missouri’s schools -A new […]

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]]> In this issue:

-An assessment of the 2025 legislative session
-The trend of unfairly blaming landlords for a variety of ills
-The extremely poor performance of Missouri’s schools
-A new law that will restrict cell phone usage in Missouri schools
-The disappointing lack of progress on budget and spending reform
-How perceptions about crime hurt Missouri cities

Click here to find the newsletter.

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]]> House Bill 660 and Local Taxation https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/taxes/house-bill-660-and-local-taxation/ Mon, 28 Apr 2025 20:00:54 +0000 http://showmeinstitute.local/publications/house-bill-660-and-local-taxation/ On April 28, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri Senate Local Government Committee regarding House Bill 660 and local taxation. Click here to […]

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]]> On April 28, Show-Me Institute Director of Municipal Policy David Stokes submits testimony to the Missouri Senate Local Government Committee regarding House Bill 660 and local taxation. Click here to read the full testimony.

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