Most St. Louisans I know are die-hard fans of the city they call home. Maybe it’s because we are blessed with great sports culture, or simply because our Midwestern nature helps us see the good in all situations (and St. Louis has many good qualities!). Whatever the case, most of us are proud to throw on the STL merch and claim those letters as our own.
For this reason, I was surprised when I found out that only a small number of my St. Louis high school friends planned to move back home after college. I experienced a similar shock when I heard the recent Show-Me Institute podcast episode with Susan Pendergrass and Dr. Ness Sandoval. In that episode, Dr. Sandoval lays out the bleak fact that there are more people dying than people being born in the St. Louis region right now. We could rationalize this as a reflection of the overall birth rate decrease in the United States, but the data show that many U.S. cities, such as Austin and Orlando, do not face the same demographic decline.
The natural question to ask is: what is St. Louis doing wrong? Or, perhaps, what are these other cities doing right?
For one, most cities do not face the safety issue that St. Louis does. Every year, St. Louis fiercely competes against New Orleans, Detroit, and Baltimore for the title of “the murder capital of America.” This fact almost certainly contributes to St. Louis’s demographic decline. Who would willingly choose to move to the murder capital of America?
What many outsiders don’t realize is that the City of St. Louis is an independent municipality separate from St. Louis County. In 2020, the City of St. Louis had 300,528 residents and 263 homicides. That is a murder rate of 87 per 100,000 people. Meanwhile, St. Louis County had 1,004,125 residents in 2020 and a murder rate of 12 per 100,000 people. When news sources dub St. Louis as the #1 (or as of September, #2) murder capital of America, they are referring to the City of St. Louis, not the St. Louis region. Unfortunately, many outsiders don’t know this and the whole region suffers as a result.
John Boyd, a business relocation specialist, recently spoke about the impact crime has on a company’s decision to move: “One of the big reasons you see migration from California, New York and Philadelphia is not just high taxes, but crime statistics. St. Louis hasn’t enjoyed the type of growth Kansas City has in recent years, and crime is a big reason why.” Boyd continues, saying that companies are “not merely looking at crime statistics but how crime is and isn’t being prosecuted.” This idea is particularly relevant to St. Louis. Kim Gardner, the circuit attorney for the City of St. Louis, has faced a lot of criticism recently for the way she has handled crime.
If companies choose to relocate from St. Louis or don’t view St. Louis as an attractive relocation destination, job opportunities will be more scarce and fewer college graduates will see St. Louis as an attractive job market. That’s why it’s hard to blame my friends for choosing another city over St. Louis for their first job out of college.
While St. Louis could do a better marketing job of clearing up the perception issue and highlighting all its attractive features for new college graduates, the safety issues need to be addressed and prioritized. All the marketing in the world cannot change the reality of St. Louis City’s worrisome crime patterns.
