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	<title>Interest rate Archives - Show-Me Institute</title>
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	<title>Interest rate Archives - Show-Me Institute</title>
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		<title>What’s Wrong with the Housing Market?</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/whats-wrong-with-the-housing-market/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Oct 2025 00:16:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://showme.beanstalkweb.com/article/uncategorized/whats-wrong-with-the-housing-market/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>If you’ve been in the market for a home recently, you know prices are through the roof. Prices went up sharply when interest rates bottomed out during the COVID pandemic. [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/whats-wrong-with-the-housing-market/">What’s Wrong with the Housing Market?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you’ve been in the market for a home recently, you know prices are through the roof. Prices went up sharply when interest rates bottomed out during the COVID pandemic. The low interest rates effectively made houses cheaper relative to the sticker price because most people borrow to buy a home. The lower <em>total price</em>, inclusive of loan interest, stoked demand, and prices went up in response.</p>
<p>Then, interest rates went up.</p>
<p>In a well-functioning market, the process should have reversed itself. The higher interest rates pushed the <em>total price</em> of purchasing a home back up, which surely lowered demand. At the same time, with house prices still far above the pre-pandemic level, builders should have been building like mad to bring homes to the market. These two forces should have resulted in a housing price correction. But this is not what happened. The higher interest rates have cooled demand, but prices remain high. Below is a chart I created using the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system. It shows the trend in the median U.S. home price since February 2020, just before the pandemic. The average price of a home in the United States grew by roughly $120,000, or about 38 percent, from the first quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2022. It has declined modestly of late, but not much.</p>
<p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-587331" src="https://showmeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Cory-housing-post.png" alt="" width="1071" height="393" /></p>
<p>The bizarre thing is that builders haven’t responded to the higher prices. In fact, FRED data show new housing starts today <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST">are lower than before the pandemic</a>. Meanwhile, many existing homeowners are “locked in” with low-rate mortgages and reluctant to move, further constraining supply. Even with tempered demand due to the combination of high prices and high interest rates, the lack of supply is keeping prices elevated.</p>
<p>But what are the builders doing? They should be falling all over themselves to bring new houses to the market. Think of it this way: If it was profitable to build homes in Q1-2020, it should have been even more profitable by Q3-2022, continuing until today.</p>
<p>A recent issue of the <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/issues/814?to=18862"><em>Journal of Economic Perspectives</em></a> (JEP) brings together several groups of economists to weigh in on the housing market. I read the issue with great interest. One of the most striking findings is that in many major markets, the price elasticity of housing supply is very low, which means builders barely respond to rising prices with new construction. This is odd. Normally, suppliers should respond strongly to higher prices, which put more money in their pockets. In fact, the invisible hand of the free market depends on it.</p>
<p>The articles discuss several reasons builders have responded so weakly to higher prices. With respect to the recent situation specifically, one might initially blame it on rising construction costs, but the articles suggest this is not the primary explanation. Rather, they emphasize the role of regulations and zoning. Local land-use rules, approval processes, and other restrictions make it slow and costly to build, even when market prices suggest that building more housing should be profitable.</p>
<p>Another interesting finding from the research is that we don’t need to focus on building low-income housing to make housing affordable. If we build higher-end homes, people will move into them from less desirable homes, which will then become more affordable. The effect of building homes at the higher end of the market cascades down.</p>
<p>In short, we just need to get out of the way of the market.</p>
<p>So, the next time you hear complaints about high home prices or a shortage of low-income housing, remember the biggest obstacle is the rules we’ve chosen for ourselves. Deregulating housing construction, and thereby expanding supply, offers the clearest path to putting homeownership in reach for more Americans.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/whats-wrong-with-the-housing-market/">What’s Wrong with the Housing Market?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>What Does the Latest Inflation Data Mean for the Fed&#8217;s Next Move?</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/what-does-the-latest-inflation-data-mean-for-the-feds-next-move/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2024 17:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/what-does-the-latest-inflation-data-mean-for-the-feds-next-move/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>On May 15, 2024, Show-Me Institute Chief Economist Aaron Hedlund joined Pete Mundo on KCMO to break down the latest inflation data and discuss what it means for the Federal [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/what-does-the-latest-inflation-data-mean-for-the-feds-next-move/">What Does the Latest Inflation Data Mean for the Fed&#8217;s Next Move?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><iframe loading="lazy" title="What Does the Latest Inflation Data Mean for the Fed&#039;s Next Move?" width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kRjcBGhNZTM?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>On May 15, 2024, Show-Me Institute Chief Economist Aaron Hedlund joined <a href="https://www.kcmotalkradio.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pete Mundo on KCMO</a> to break down the latest inflation data and discuss what it means for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next move on interest rates.</p>
<p>Photo credit:</p>
<p>https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/partial-view-federal-reserve-fed-headquarters-2258307915</p>
<p>Photo ID: 2258307915</p>
<p class="MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-body1 mui-1g2ndjh-bold">Photo Contributor: christianthiel.net</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/what-does-the-latest-inflation-data-mean-for-the-feds-next-move/">What Does the Latest Inflation Data Mean for the Fed&#8217;s Next Move?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>A New Normal in the Housing Market with Mark A. Calabria</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/a-new-normal-in-the-housing-market-with-mark-a-calabria/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 May 2023 00:11:10 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Regulation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/a-new-normal-in-the-housing-market-with-mark-a-calabria/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Susan Pendergrass speaks with Mark A. Calabria about new mortgage regulations designed to increase equity in home ownership, if today&#8217;s housing market has echoes of the pre-2008 market, what higher [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/a-new-normal-in-the-housing-market-with-mark-a-calabria/">A New Normal in the Housing Market with Mark A. Calabria</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="sc-type-small sc-text-body">
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<p>Susan Pendergrass speaks with <a href="https://www.cato.org/people/mark-calabria" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mark A. Calabria</a> about new mortgage regulations designed to increase equity in home ownership, if today&#8217;s housing market has echoes of the pre-2008 market, what higher interest rates for longer could mean for first-time home buyers, and more.</p>
<p>Mark A. Calabria is a senior advisor to the Cato Institute. He provides strategic input and direction on the federal economic policymaking process. He previously served as director of financial regulation at the Cato Institute, where he cofounded Cato’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives.</p>
<p>Find Mark&#8217;s latest book &#8220;Shelter from the Storm: How a COVID Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted&#8221; here: <a title="https://amzn.to/3ODhPVH" href="https://gate.sc?url=https%3A%2F%2Famzn.to%2F3ODhPVH&amp;token=a8ea90-1-1685127834525" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener ugc">amzn.to/3ODhPVH</a></p>
<p><iframe title="Spotify Embed: A New Normal in the Housing Market with Mark A. Calabria" style="border-radius: 12px" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/486k0NNHXWuXM1sqKu6fau?si=rNsbR0bASoWdjfzrIylexw&amp;utm_source=oembed"></iframe></p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/a-new-normal-in-the-housing-market-with-mark-a-calabria/">A New Normal in the Housing Market with Mark A. Calabria</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Latest GDP Report: What Does It Mean for 2023?</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/the-latest-gdp-report-what-does-it-mean-for-2023/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2023 00:00:57 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/the-latest-gdp-report-what-does-it-mean-for-2023/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>While Washington, D.C., is seized by speculation surrounding debt ceiling showdowns and the specter of government default, other recent news—namely, the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/the-latest-gdp-report-what-does-it-mean-for-2023/">The Latest GDP Report: What Does It Mean for 2023?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While Washington, D.C., is seized by speculation surrounding debt ceiling showdowns and the specter of government default, other recent news—namely, the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP)—provided some welcome but qualified good news on the economy. According to the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/gdp4q22_adv.pdf">report</a>, inflation-adjusted (real) GDP grew by 2.9% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter of 2022, which modestly exceeded consensus expectations. Moreover, unlike the third quarter data—which showed growth despite a large decline in private domestic investment—each of the topline spending categories showed growth in the fourth quarter, albeit meager growth in some cases.</p>
<p>First of all, consumer spending is holding up. After only growing by 1.3% in the first quarter of 2022, it ended the year growing at a 2.1% clip—hardly robust, but clearly in positive territory. Consumers have been slammed by high inflation and eroding purchasing power for the better part of two years, but the steady job market and still-elevated checking account balances of households have managed to keep them afloat. Unfortunately, so too has rapid growth in <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2022Q3">credit card utilization</a>, which may act as a source of financial vulnerability for consumers going forward as they grapple with continued interest rate hikes. Transitions into credit card delinquency are already on the rise, driven especially by households in the 18–29 and 30–39 year age ranges.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-581561" src="https://showmeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Aaron-GDP-blog-post-figure-1.png" alt="" width="694" height="482" /></p>
<p>Switching gears, gross private domestic investment declined notably in the third quarter of 2022 (9.6% on an annualized basis) but increased by 1.4% in the fourth quarter. On the surface, this turnaround is good news. However, peeking beneath the hood reveals some reasons to be cautious. Most strikingly, residential investment fell by 26.7% as the housing market gets pummeled by the rapid rise of mortgage rates over 2022. In the first week of January 2022, the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages sat at 3.2%. In the last week of December, it was at 6.4%. Such a huge increase in rates translates to a jump in monthly payments of over $800 for someone buying a $400,000 house with a 20% down payment—making it more difficult to qualify for a loan.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone  wp-image-581562" src="https://showmeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Aaron-GDP-blog-post-figure-2.png" alt="" width="858" height="337" /></p>
<p>Looking beyond the housing market, nonresidential fixed investment increased by an anemic 0.7% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter after growing by 6.2% in the third quarter, a sizable deterioration. As a result, fixed investment overall fell by 6.7% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, which is even <em>worse </em>than the 3.5% decline in the third quarter. So how is it, exactly, that private investment still increased by 1.4% overall? The answer: inventories increased, which is far less important for economic growth in 2023 and beyond than businesses confidently investing in new factories and capital.</p>
<p>So what does all this mean for 2023? Unfortunately, not much. The good news is that the economy is not crumbling—at least not yet. And there are also reasons to be hopeful that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are finally <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/blog/business-climate/inflation-and-the-dangers-of-false-narratives/">breaking the back of inflation</a> despite the federal government’s fiscal profligacy since the beginning of 2021. However, interest rates are still on their way up, consumers are borrowing more, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW">gas prices are on the rise again</a>, and the housing market is stalling out, with very real prospects of modest to moderate house price declines in at least certain pockets of the country. None of these trends bode well for <a href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf">consumer sentiment</a> or <a href="https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-declines-as-expectations-for-better-business-conditions-worsens-in-december/">small business optimism</a>. But there’s still a chance that the Federal Reserve can manage to thread the needle, and divided government in Washington, D.C., means that more blowout inflationary spending packages are less likely. It’s certainly something worth crossing our fingers about.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/the-latest-gdp-report-what-does-it-mean-for-2023/">The Latest GDP Report: What Does It Mean for 2023?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Year-End Jobs Report: Goldilocks, or Calm Before the Storm?</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/business-climate/year-end-jobs-report-goldilocks-or-calm-before-the-storm/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Jan 2023 04:56:08 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Business Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/year-end-jobs-report-goldilocks-or-calm-before-the-storm/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>For the second year in a row, the U.S. economy enters January under a considerable cloud of uncertainty. In January 2022 inflation was 7 percent, and the “transitory” narrative pushed [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/business-climate/year-end-jobs-report-goldilocks-or-calm-before-the-storm/">Year-End Jobs Report: Goldilocks, or Calm Before the Storm?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the second year in a row, the U.S. economy enters January under a considerable cloud of uncertainty. In January 2022 inflation was 7 percent, and the “transitory” narrative pushed by defenders of the current administration was itself proving quite transitory in the face of stubborn reality. Although the demand for workers remained strong as the economy continued to ride the wave of a V-shaped recovery that began in summer 2020, businesses were struggling with a labor <em>supply </em>shortage that was driven at least in part by the massive wave of deficit-financed government transfers from the American Rescue Plan Act in spring 2021 that actively pushed workers to stay on the sidelines (most predominantly by extending excessively generous unemployment benefits despite a robust job market and stripping the Child Tax Credit of work requirements).</p>
<p>A year later, in January 2023, a lot has changed, but some things remain the same—especially the amount of economic uncertainty on the horizon. The economy began the year with rock-bottom interest rates, but after the Federal Reserve finally came to terms with the persistence of inflation, it wisely abandoned its lax stance and proceeded to tighten the screws by raising interest rates at an extremely rapid pace—taking its benchmark <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS">Fed Funds rate</a> from 0 percent at the beginning of the year to over 4 percent by the end. During this same period, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US">mortgage rates</a> jumped from historically low levels of under 3 percent to over 7 percent. As a result, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S">existing home sales</a> fell by 35 percent over the year, and residential investment plummeted. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/gdp3q22_3rd.pdf">gross domestic product</a> shrank during the first two quarters of the year but managed to register a respectable number in the third quarter (fourth quarter data is not available yet).</p>
<p>The primary questions on everybody’s minds entering 2023 are these: Can the economy achieve a soft landing? And can inflation come down without the U.S. economy entering recession? Unfortunately, it is still far too early to tell. Today’s <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">jobs report</a> revealed that the labor market continues to hold up, with payrolls growing by 223,000 in December 2022 and the unemployment rate falling to 3.5 percent. While these data are good news, they don’t tell us much about the future, because the labor market tends to lag the rest of the economy. In other words, if the U.S. economy hits turbulence in 2023 and enters recession territory, the labor market response will likely be delayed, as has been the case historically. In the meantime, the main takeaway from the most recent jobs report is that the prospects for the Federal Reserve <em>reversing </em>its rate hikes are basically nil—at least until inflation drops back down to 2 percent and remains there for a while. The recent <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm">release</a> of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its most recent policy meetings confirms that there is no sentiment at the Fed to begin rate cuts anytime soon.</p>
<p>It is still possible to gather some other tea leaves from some of the recent economic data, however, to get a sense for where the economy may be headed. The downside of the latest jobs data is that there is little to no evidence that workers are being enticed from the sidelines. As shown in the chart <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/HedlundLFP.pdf"><strong>here</strong></a>, the labor force participation rate—which counts people who are working and those actively looking for work—remains below 2019 levels by a full percentage point. Some of the drop is due to early retirements during COVID-19, but if one looks at the data just for prime-age workers (those between the age of 25 and 54—see the chart <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/HedlundPLFP.pdf"><strong>here</strong></a>), their labor force participation rate hasn’t fully recovered either. With 1.75 <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA">job openings per unemployed worker</a>, the labor shortage has no imminent end in sight, which also complicates the inflation picture by making it more difficult for businesses to accommodate demand without raising prices.</p>
<p>Thankfully, the end of 2022 offered some promising signs for inflation. Most directly, the inflation data itself showed some moderation, although it continues to run hot at over 7 percent year-over-year. Also, the most recent jobs report showed that wage pressures also may be subsiding to some extent. Of course, faster wage growth in principle is a <em>good </em>thing for workers, but only when driven by sustainable forces. Over the past nearly two years, wage growth has run hotter than in prior years, but the increase took place amidst a backdrop of <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB">declining productivity</a>. The result has been even faster price growth, resulting in a steep drop in purchasing power, leaving families poorer in terms of their living standards. Going forward, 2023 offers a lot of uncertainty, and data over the next few months regarding inflation and productivity will be quite revealing. One thing working in the economy’s favor is a divided Congress, which should mean a stop to the glut of inflationary government spending. The question is whether it will be too little, too late to avoid a hard landing.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/business-climate/year-end-jobs-report-goldilocks-or-calm-before-the-storm/">Year-End Jobs Report: Goldilocks, or Calm Before the Storm?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Missouri Legislature Looks to Further Regulate Payday Loans</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/business-climate/missouri-legislature-looks-to-further-regulate-payday-loans/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2016 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Business Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/missouri-legislature-looks-to-further-regulate-payday-loans/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Payday loans are high-interest, short-term loans that are most commonly used in low-income communities. Because high interest rates (often above 500% annually) can easily cause a person&#8217;s debt load to [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/business-climate/missouri-legislature-looks-to-further-regulate-payday-loans/">Missouri Legislature Looks to Further Regulate Payday Loans</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Payday loans are high-interest, short-term loans that are most <a href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/2015/03/26/payday-loans-cfpb-regulation/">commonly used in low-income communities</a>. Because high interest rates (often above 500% annually) can easily cause a person&rsquo;s debt load to get out of hand, restricting the payday loan industry has become increasingly common in <a href="http://www.responsiblelending.org/payday-lending/policy-legislation">legislatures across the countr</a>y. There are currently <a href="http://www.house.mo.gov/billcentral.aspx">two bills </a>that propose to further regulate the payday loan industry in Missouri, HB 1942 and HB 1881. These bills may be well intended, but legislatures should be careful lest they harm those they are trying to help.</p>
<p>Take for example the provisions of HB 1942, which would limit the annual interest on a payday loan to 36%. That may sound like a high limit to many, but remember that payday loans are not secured, meaning they are not backed by a car or a house or something else the lender can repossess if the person who takes the loan doesn&rsquo;t pay up. They&rsquo;re like personal loans from banks, which don&rsquo;t come cheap. According to the Federal Reserve, the average personal loan <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/">interest rate is around 10%.</a> For those without good credit, <a href="https://www.lendingclub.com/public/borrower-rates-and-fees.action">the rate approaches 30%.</a></p>
<p>Capping interest rates might sound like a good idea&mdash;sticking it to lenders and helping out regular people. But the people who take out payday loans are often those who would not qualify for a loan at 36% interest. Thus, a bill like HB 1942 would protect these people from high interest rates by cutting off their access to credit entirely. If someone&rsquo;s car breaks down or they have a medical emergency and they need cash fast, telling them they should have saved more or joined a credit union six months ago will be cold comfort.</p>
<p>See former policy analyst David Stokes talk about payday lending in <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/blog/privatization/show-me-institute-free-market-field-trip-no-2-payday-loans">this Show-Me Institute video</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/business-climate/missouri-legislature-looks-to-further-regulate-payday-loans/">Missouri Legislature Looks to Further Regulate Payday Loans</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Breaking: Another Study Backs Up The Show-Me Institute</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/public-pensions/breaking-another-study-backs-up-the-show-me-institute/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jul 2014 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Budget and Spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Labor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Pensions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[State and Local Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/breaking-another-study-backs-up-the-show-me-institute/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The Competitive Enterprise Institute grabbed our attention when it released a new report comparing the unfunded pension liabilities of all 50 states. Spoiler alert: Missouri ranks in the middle third (more [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/public-pensions/breaking-another-study-backs-up-the-show-me-institute/">Breaking: Another Study Backs Up The Show-Me Institute</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Competitive Enterprise Institute grabbed our attention when it released a <a href="http://cei.org/sites/default/files/Robert%20Sarvis%20-%20Understanding%20Public%20Pension%20Debt.pdf">new report</a> comparing the unfunded pension liabilities of all 50 states. Spoiler alert: Missouri ranks in the middle third (more on this later).</p>
<p>An interesting point raised in the report was that, &#8220;&#8230;the discount rate used in the valuation of liabilities should be a low-risk rate, ideally as low as the rate on Treasury bonds.&#8221; In a Show-Me Institute <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publications/policy-study/taxes/922-ps36-biggs-public-pensions.html">Policy Study</a>, Andrew Biggs also urged state pensions to use a low-discount rate in valuing their liabilities (the discount rate is the interest rate that pension plans use to translate future liabilities into current dollars). It&#8217;s encouraging to know that other institutes are reaching similar conclusions.</p>
<p>However, it isn&#8217;t encouraging that this report found that after using a more appropriate discount rate, the amount of Missouri&#8217;s unfunded pension liabilities totaled more than 4 percent of Missouri&#8217;s entire economy. As of the end of last year, <a href="http://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=70&amp;step=1&amp;isuri=1&amp;acrdn=1#reqid=70&amp;step=10&amp;isuri=1&amp;7003=900&amp;7035=-1&amp;7004=naics&amp;7005=1&amp;7006=29000&amp;7036=-1&amp;7001=1900&amp;7002=1&amp;7090=70&amp;7007=2013&amp;7093=levels">Missouri&#8217;s economy</a> was $258 billion; 4.2 percent of that is $10.8 billion. If the state cannot make up that amount, then you, the taxpayer, <a href="/2013/03/public-pension-panic.html">are on the hook</a> to make up the difference. <a href="/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/07/Table7.1.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter  wp-image-53909" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/07/Table7.1.png" alt="Table7.1" width="642" height="655" /></a>There are other states whose pensions are in much worse shape than Missouri&#8217;s, but our state still faces an economic ticking time bomb. Whether dealing with a grenade (Missouri) or a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BLU-82">daisy cutter</a> (Illinois), taxpayers will not be happy to be caught in the blast. The Show-Me Institute has <a href="/2014/06/breaking-new-study-supports-old-show-me-study.html">written</a> <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publications/policy-study/taxes/1093-missouri-transition-costs-and-public-pension-reform.html">extensively</a> <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publications/testimony/taxes/1129-missouri-public-pensions-their-funding-status-and-roadblocks-to-reform.html">about</a> how Missouri can start to address its pension problems by shifting to more efficient plans such as defined contribution or cash balance plans. Hopefully, this new report can serve as a wake-up call to policymakers that change is needed.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/public-pensions/breaking-another-study-backs-up-the-show-me-institute/">Breaking: Another Study Backs Up The Show-Me Institute</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Unfunded Pension Liabilities And Car Analogies</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/public-pensions/unfunded-pension-liabilities-and-car-analogies/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Mar 2013 21:59:06 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Labor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Pensions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/unfunded-pension-liabilities-and-car-analogies/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>At one point or another, we are all guilty of it . . . making bad analogies. This time, the bad analogy award goes to Gary Findlay, executive director of [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/public-pensions/unfunded-pension-liabilities-and-car-analogies/">Unfunded Pension Liabilities And Car Analogies</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At one point or another, we are all guilty of it . . . making bad analogies. This time, the bad analogy award goes to Gary Findlay, executive director of the Missouri State Employees Retirement System (MOSERS). According to the <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/business/columns/david-nicklaus/study-says-missouri-s-public-pensions-are-worse-than-they/article_550c0b90-91bb-56ec-b215-c5f36c5e600a.html"><em>St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s </em>David Nicklaus</a>, Findlay believes using a risk-free discount rate to calculate the state&#8217;s unfunded pension liabilities is akin to taking a “zero-risk approach to traffic accidents — by banning cars.”</p>
<p>Findlay’s analogy was in response to a <a href="http://www.showmeinstitute.org/publications/policy-study/taxes/922-ps36-biggs-public-pensions.html" target="_blank">recent Show-Me Institute paper on Missouri’s unfunded pension liabilities</a>. The author of the policy study, <a href="http://www.aei.org/scholar/andrew-g-biggs/">Andrew Biggs</a>, demonstrates that Missouri’s unfunded pension liabilities are much higher than the state has reported when we accurately account for the risk of the investments.</p>
<p><a href="/2013/03/valuing-public-employee-pension-liabilities-nothing-fair-about-it.html">Biggs, on the Show-Me Daily blog</a>, and Jason Richwine, of the Heritage Foundation, have criticized Findlay&#8217;s remarks. <a href="http://www.publicsectorinc.com/forum/2013/03/public-pension-fallacy-5-will-not-go-away.html">In his post, Richwine states:</a> “From an economist&#8217;s perspective on costs, Findlay is free to pursue whatever level of risk he wants with the Missouri pension fund. What he cannot do is pretend that more risk comes at no cost to the state&#8217;s taxpayers, who must make up for any funding shortfalls.”</p>
<p>I cannot help but heap more criticism on Findlay. His analogy would be accurate if Biggs had suggested we take a zero-risk approach to pensions by banning pensions. Of course, that is not what he suggests. Rather, Biggs argues that pension liabilities should be calculated with a low-risk discount rate. In non-economist speak, that means when you are gambling with taxpayer money, it is wise to hedge your bets.</p>
<p>If we want to stick with the car theme, a better analogy would be that calculating pension liabilities with a low-risk discount rate is akin to purchasing auto insurance. Like driving, our investments have risks embedded in them. I believe it is important for Missourians to adequately plan for that risk before we let our unfunded liabilities come back to rear-end us. (How is that for a car analogy?)</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/public-pensions/unfunded-pension-liabilities-and-car-analogies/">Unfunded Pension Liabilities And Car Analogies</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Valuing Public Employee Pension Liabilities: Nothing &#8216;Fair&#8217; About It</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/budget-and-spending/valuing-public-employee-pension-liabilities-nothing-fair-about-it/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Mar 2013 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Budget and Spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Labor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Pensions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[State and Local Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/valuing-public-employee-pension-liabilities-nothing-fair-about-it/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The Show-Me Institute recently released a study that I authored about Missouri public employee pensions. The study argued that pensions should value their future benefit liabilities using a low “discount [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/budget-and-spending/valuing-public-employee-pension-liabilities-nothing-fair-about-it/">Valuing Public Employee Pension Liabilities: Nothing &#8216;Fair&#8217; About It</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Show-Me Institute recently released a <a href="http://www.showmeinstitute.org/publications/policy-study/taxes/922-ps36-biggs-public-pensions.html">study that I authored</a> about Missouri public employee pensions. The study argued that pensions should value their future benefit liabilities using a low “discount rate” to account for the fact that retirees’ benefits are legally guaranteed, regardless of how the plans&#8217; investments turn out. The study cites numerous sources, such as the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office, and others arguing for so-called “fair market valuation.” If you value guaranteed public pension liabilities using a safe 4 percent interest rate, rather than the 8 percent rate that is common for public plans, Missouri’s unfunded pension liabilities rise from about $11 billion to $54 billion.</p>
<p>The <em>St. Louis</em><em> Post-Dispatch’s</em> David Nicklaus <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/business/columns/david-nicklaus/study-says-missouri-s-public-pensions-are-worse-than-they/article_550c0b90-91bb-56ec-b215-c5f36c5e600a.html">brought these results</a> to Gary Findlay, executive director of the Missouri State Employees Retirement System (MOSERS) and an outspoken opponent of fair market valuation. “Using a risk-free discount rate, Findlay says, is about as sensible as arguing that the state should take a zero-risk approach to traffic accidents — by banning cars.”</p>
<p>In fact, fair market valuation does not say that pensions cannot take investment risk. Nor does it argue that investment risk cannot pay off. Rather, it merely says that we cannot&nbsp;<em>assume</em> that investments always pay off and ignore the risks those investments pose to the budget and the taxpayer. Under current pension accounting rules, a plan that takes more investment risk — say, by shifting into stocks, private equity, or hedge funds — automatically becomes “better funded” because the plan then assumes a higher investment return. But high-risk investments do not make pensions better funded. Yes, they reduce contributions for current taxpayers — but shift an equal and opposite contingent liability onto future generations to pay full benefits should the assumed rates of return fail to materialize.</p>
<p>And, as recent experience has shown, riskier investments do not always pay off, even over the long run. In fact, MOSERS’s own investment consultants told them that the plan has a less than 50 percent chance of achieving its stated returns. But full benefits must be paid 100 percent of the time. Fair market valuation catches the cost of guaranteeing full benefits. Current accounting standards ignore it.</p>
<p>Findlay’s traffic accident analogy is not the most apt, but think about it this way: Automobiles come with obvious benefits but also costs, including the risk of traffic accidents. But we cannot weigh the costs and benefits if we refuse to count the number of accidents each year. Similarly, we cannot refuse to consider the possibility that our bets on high-risk pension investments will not pay off, particularly when billions of taxpayer dollars are on the line.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/budget-and-spending/valuing-public-employee-pension-liabilities-nothing-fair-about-it/">Valuing Public Employee Pension Liabilities: Nothing &#8216;Fair&#8217; About It</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Missouri&#8217;s Public Pensions: Worse Than They Appear</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/taxes/missouris-public-pensions-worse-than-they-appear/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2013 01:18:03 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/publications/missouris-public-pensions-worse-than-they-appear/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The unfunded liabilities of the state’s public pensions are an economic ticking time bomb, which the state is obligated to honor. By incorrectly assessing the risk of not being able [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/taxes/missouris-public-pensions-worse-than-they-appear/">Missouri&#8217;s Public Pensions: Worse Than They Appear</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The unfunded liabilities of the state’s public pensions are an economic ticking time bomb, which the state is obligated to honor. By incorrectly assessing the risk of not being able to meet future liabilities, these pensions significantly underestimate the amount of additional funding they need in order to be financially secure. A new policy study for the Show-Me Institute shows that if these public employee pensions use a more appropriate discount rate, they pose a real threat to the state’s finances. If left unaddressed, the state faces a significant risk and policymakers will be forced to make drastic cuts to services or significantly raise taxes in order to meet the liabilities. The risk posed to Missourians’ quality of life is a real and serious one. The study estimates that the liability equals nearly $9,000 for every Missourian.</p>
<p></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/taxes/missouris-public-pensions-worse-than-they-appear/">Missouri&#8217;s Public Pensions: Worse Than They Appear</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Public Pension Panic</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/budget-and-spending/public-pension-panic/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Mar 2013 20:29:45 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Budget and Spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Labor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Pensions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[State and Local Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/public-pension-panic/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Missouri&#8217;s public pensions are in trouble. However, you might not have known that if you just reviewed official reports. Andrew Biggs&#8217; new policy study for the Show-Me Institute illustrates just [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/budget-and-spending/public-pension-panic/">Public Pension Panic</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Missouri&#8217;s public pensions are in trouble. However, you might not have known that if you just reviewed official reports. Andrew Biggs&#8217; <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publications/policy-study/taxes/922-ps36-biggs-public-pensions.html">new policy study</a> for the Show-Me Institute illustrates just how much the state&#8217;s public pensions are truly in the hole. According to Biggs, Missouri&#8217;s total unfunded liabilities for its five largest public pensions is nearly $54 billion. This amount is close to <em>five times</em> higher than the officially reported sum of $11.1 billion.</p>
<p>The reason for the large discrepancy between Biggs&#8217; numbers and those of the state&#8217;s pensions is the <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discountrate.asp#axzz2NGaqZePZ">discount rate</a>. A discount rate is basically compound interest working in reverse. If, for instance, I owed someone $10,000 five years from now, the discount rate tells me how much I would need to invest to ensure I can make that payment. The higher the rate, the lower the amount I need to invest.</p>
<p>The state&#8217;s public pension plans use discount rates between 7.25-8.25 percent. This enables them to assume their current assets will be worth more in order to pay off their liabilities. Biggs uses a lower rate that better accounts for the risks inherent in a portfolio with risky assets and guaranteed liabilities.</p>
<p>We, as taxpayers, are responsible for these obligations. If the state does not have enough money in these pensions to make the necessary payments to beneficiaries, it will have to resort to massive tax increases and/or deep cuts to services. The first thing the state should do to prevent this from happening is shift our public pensions to a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defined_contribution_plan">defined contribution plan</a>. This would prevent any new liabilities from accruing and give the state breathing room so that it can deal with its existing liabilities.</p>
<p>Missouri&#8217;s public pensions might appear to be relatively healthy to the casual observer. However, there is something rotten in the state of Missouri. Its public pensions are seriously underfunded and changes need to be made today. We cannot afford to wait.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/budget-and-spending/public-pension-panic/">Public Pension Panic</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Short-Term Lending Regulations Can Do More Harm Than Good</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/short-term-lending-regulations-can-do-more-harm-than-good/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Apr 2012 20:25:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Regulation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/short-term-lending-regulations-can-do-more-harm-than-good/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Last week, Cole County Circuit Judge Dan Green cast out a ballot initiative’s wording for a proposal that would cap interest rates at 36 percent. Apparently the wording on the petition [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/short-term-lending-regulations-can-do-more-harm-than-good/">Short-Term Lending Regulations Can Do More Harm Than Good</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week, Cole County Circuit Judge Dan Green <a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/MO_PAYDAY_LOANS_MOOL-?SITE=MOCAP&amp;SECTION=STATE&amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT">cast out a ballot initiative’s wording</a> for a proposal that would cap interest rates at 36 percent. Apparently the wording on the petition sheets <a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/MO_PAYDAY_LOANS_MOOL-?SITE=MOCAP&amp;SECTION=STATE&amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT">could deceive voters</a>. This ruling will almost certainly prevent the initiative from being placed on the November ballot.</p>
<p>The issue is not going away forever. The supporters are continuing their effort to cap interest rates. I admire the desire to protect borrowers from abusive lending, but there is a better way than capping interest rates.</p>
<p>Interest rate caps at this rate will not only prevent high interest rates; they will <a href="http://kbia.org/post/payday-loans-credit-option-or-debt-trap">eliminate payday loan shops in the state</a>. Consequently, payday borrowers will probably not be able to acquire credit.  <strong>A better way to help borrowers is to make cheaper credit available. </strong><a href="/2012/01/can-the-market-provide-cheaper-short-term-loans.html">Do something similar to what this group is doing</a>, and donate money to banks to offset losses from high-risk, short-term loans — thereby bringing down the interest rate.</p>
<p>For an <strong>excellent, succinct analysis </strong>of payday loan shops and regulations, click <a href="/2010/02/payday-loan-industry-bad-mob.html">here</a>. For more detailed commentary on the topic, see <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publications/commentary/red-tape/257-payday-loan-reform-bad-for-borrowers.html">here</a> and <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publications/commentary/red-tape/73-restrictions-on-payday-lending-result-in-worse-financial-outcomes.html">here</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/short-term-lending-regulations-can-do-more-harm-than-good/">Short-Term Lending Regulations Can Do More Harm Than Good</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Can The Market Provide Cheaper Short-Term Loans?</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/privatization/can-the-market-provide-cheaper-short-term-loans/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2012 22:21:58 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Privatization]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/can-the-market-provide-cheaper-short-term-loans/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>This article in the Kansas City Star is a must-read for anyone interested in payday lending. Here are some of the details (emphasis mine): Central Bank has agreed to make [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/privatization/can-the-market-provide-cheaper-short-term-loans/">Can The Market Provide Cheaper Short-Term Loans?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="">This <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/2012/01/16/3385618/alternative-arises-as-payday-loan.html">article</a> in the <em>Kansas City Star</em> is a must-read for anyone interested in payday lending. Here are some of the <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/2012/01/16/3385618/alternative-arises-as-payday-loan.html">details</a> (emphasis mine):</p>
<p></p>
<p style="">Central Bank has agreed to make old-fashioned signature loans (that means no collateral from the borrower) of $300 to $2,500. That’s also what payday and installment lenders do. Except Fair Community Credit will lend money for slightly longer durations and at a <strong>double-digit interest rate, not a triple-digit one</strong>. That way borrowers will have a better shot at paying off their loans, rather than defaulting.</p>
<p></p>
<p style="">What makes that possible is Fair Community Credit’s promise to cover any loan losses from a $200,000-plus loan guarantee pool <strong>donated by foundations and individual donors.</strong></p>
<p>The market is creating relatively cheap short-term credit alternatives to payday loan shops. It is incredible to watch society tackle perceived problems through voluntary interaction without the forceful hand of the state. It will be intriguing to see the results of this venture.</p>
<p>A hat tip to <a href="http://johncombest.com/">John Combest</a> for the link.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/privatization/can-the-market-provide-cheaper-short-term-loans/">Can The Market Provide Cheaper Short-Term Loans?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Kansas City&#8217;s Continuing Fight for Pension Sustainability</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/uncategorized/kansas-citys-continuing-fight-for-pension-sustainability/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Sep 2011 00:43:46 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Kansas City continues its mighty struggle to save its children and future offspring from the possible ravages of  pension-induced bankruptcy. The city has commissioned, for this purpose, its Pension System Task Force. In a recent Kansas City [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/uncategorized/kansas-citys-continuing-fight-for-pension-sustainability/">Kansas City&#8217;s Continuing Fight for Pension Sustainability</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kansas City continues its mighty struggle to save its children and future offspring from the possible ravages of  <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/central-falls-bankruptcy-driven-by-pensions-casts-shadow-over-rhode-island.html" target="_blank">pension-induced bankruptcy</a>. The city has commissioned, for this purpose, its Pension System Task Force. In a recent <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/2011/08/28/3105831/the-stars-editorial-dont-accept.html" target="_blank"><em>Kansas City Star</em> editorial</a>, the paper notes, with healthy skepticism, the appearance of defined benefit proponent Hank Kim before the task force. According to the authors, Mr. Kim strikes a rather glib pose when addressing the issue:</p>
<blockquote><p>While many states and cities are altering their defined benefit plans because of money woes, Kim doesn’t sound that worried.</p>
<p>•Kansas City task force chairman Herb Kohn has said the city should aim to have its pension systems funded at 90 to 100 percent. As of 2010, though, three systems were under 80 percent, a far cry from the 96 percent average in 2002.</p>
<p>Kim isn’t nearly that aggressive.</p>
<p>In May, when talking about the 78 percent funding average for state pension plans, Kim said that “78 percent is a number we’re very comfortable with.” In fact, he has indicated that a 70 percent level is fine, too, because Fitch Ratings considers that adequate.</p></blockquote>
<p></p>
<blockquote><p>Counterpoint: The Government Accountability Office calls for at least an 80 percent funding level. So do many pension managers.</p></blockquote>
<p>
Kansas City taxpayers deserve honest answers to a host of questions, not least of which is whether the city&#8217;s pension managers have adopted a reasonable discount rate in determining the current funding levels needed to sustain future payouts to retirees and their families. In today&#8217;s uncertain financial environment, is an 80 percent funded level benchmark reasonable? Should the pension systems continue to <strong>assume</strong> historical market return averages of 8 percent when determining current funding levels? If one were to substitute a more reasonable rate, given market performance over the last decade, of say 4 percent, then the degree to which the systems are currently underfunded grows.</p>
<p>Our children deserve our immediate attention to this matter. Missouri currently has approximately 130 state and local public pension plans.  What assurances are there that these are solvent in the mid- to long-term? Of course, one may counter, the systems are audited under the law. But so was Enron!</p>
<p>You may trust, but first verify.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/uncategorized/kansas-citys-continuing-fight-for-pension-sustainability/">Kansas City&#8217;s Continuing Fight for Pension Sustainability</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Payday Loans vs. Loan Sharks</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/payday-loans-vs-loan-sharks/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Sep 2010 00:06:22 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Regulation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/payday-loans-vs-loan-sharks/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>This old article from the Sacramento News &#38; Review contains some interesting sentences about sub-prime credit: While the Chicago Outfit may have been a bit heavy-handed in its debt-collection practices, [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/payday-loans-vs-loan-sharks/">Payday Loans vs. Loan Sharks</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.newsreview.com/sacramento/content?oid=7610">This old article</a> from the <a href="http://www.newsreview.com/sacramento/home">Sacramento News &amp; Review</a> contains some interesting sentences about sub-prime credit:</p>
<blockquote><p>While the Chicago Outfit may have been a bit heavy-handed in its debt-collection practices, the interest rate the crew charged for a loan was a bargain. A bargain, that is, compared to the fees charged by the numerous payday loan outfits in Sacramento and throughout the state.</p>
<p>Carlisi and company extended short-term credit, or “juice loans,” for fees that pencil out to an annual interest rate of 260 percent. The Outfit may be disappointed to learn that they were working for chump change. Had they waited a few years, and then come out West, they could have become payday lenders and made some real money.</p>
<p>Although the gratification of physically collecting a loan isn’t allowed, in California it’s perfectly legal for a state licensed payday lender to charge up to 5,474 percent annual interest in this rapidly expanding niche lending business.</p></blockquote>
<p>
I&#8217;ve been meaning to comment on this for a while, because this is really fascinating data. Readers who peruse the article from which this excerpt is lifted will note that the author uses this statistic to argue that payday rates are excessive and exploitative. Well, perhaps, but this data doesn&#8217;t render that claim obvious. The fact that payday loan rates are higher than loan shark rates could simply suggest either that payday lenders face higher costs of enforcement, higher default rates, higher transaction costs, lower-quality information, or some combination of these factors.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s easy to see how a legitimate, white-market business would have higher overhead costs than a black market loan scheme, if for no other reason than that a white-market business must handle contractual disputes with tools furnished by the legal environment. No such encumbrances burden black market creditors. As <a href="http://www.showmeinstitute.org/publication/id.81/pub_detail.asp">former Show-Me Institute Policy Analyst Justin Hauke put it in an op-ed</a>: “At least with a payday lender, default is settled in court. In the black market, it usually involves a crowbar.” In this sense, the higher prices of payday loans likely reflect the premium that consumers are willing to pay for safety.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/payday-loans-vs-loan-sharks/">Payday Loans vs. Loan Sharks</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Payday Policymaking</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/payday-policymaking/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jun 2010 19:44:23 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/payday-policymaking/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Consider: There are more payday loan storefronts in the United States than there are McDonald&#8217;s and Starbucks outlets combined. Also consider, these payday loan storefronts are much more geographically concentrated [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/payday-policymaking/">Payday Policymaking</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Consider: There are more payday loan storefronts in the United States than there are McDonald&#8217;s and Starbucks outlets combined. Also consider, these payday loan storefronts are much more geographically concentrated than other types of outlets. Whereas Starbucks and McDonald&#8217;s sprawl across disparate locations with very unique compositions and characteristics of residents, payday storefronts tend to cluster densely in regions where demand for payday loans is likely to be high. What do these conditions imply about the characteristics of the payday loan market?</p>
<p>For starters, basic economic intuition would suggest that the payday lenders operate in a competitive marketplace. Fairly low barriers to entry (both legal and financial) into the market and the vast number of storefronts implies that individual stores face strong incentives to underprice their competitors. The result, barring collusion or market distortion, would be that prices are efficient, and not exorbitant.</p>
<p>The empirical evidence bears out this claim. <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=771624">A paper released by the FDIC Center for Financial Research</a> used panel data from a large vendor to demonstrate that, despite the high interest rates on payday loans, the profitability of payday lenders does not statistically differ from the profitably of other financial intermediaries, like &#8220;reputable&#8221; banks. This should appeal to intuition: Payday lenders cater to risky populations that are vulnerable to financial stressors and prone to defaults. Risky customers warrant high rates to compensate for high default rates. This understanding regarding the level of market competitiveness and the condition of interest rate efficiency is crucial to understanding the policy effects of regulation in the payday loan market.</p>
<p>Last week, in a conversation with state <a href="http://house.mo.gov/member.aspx?district=025">Sen. Mary Still</a> — one of Missouri&#8217;s most vocal <a href="http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2010/04/25/letter-why-not-vote-payday-loan-reform/">critics</a> of the payday lending industry and author of regulatory legislation in the General Assembly — I hoped to identify her latitude of acceptance for various payday lending policies (including deregulating the market further). I discovered that the two policy tools that are most likely to hear debate in the General Assembly are interest rate caps and providing incentives for banks to become &#8220;legitimate&#8221; vendors of payday loans. In some important ways, these approaches are troubling. If the market is already competitive and interest rates are efficient, an interest rate cap will choke the market and force lenders out — and banks shouldn&#8217;t have the ability to offer significantly cheaper rates on similar products. At any rate, revealed preferences would suggest that there is a reason banks aren&#8217;t willing to offer payday loans without incentives.</p>
<p><a href="/2010/03/payday-loan-reading-list.html">As I&#8217;ve discussed earlier</a>, payday loans have the potential to be both helpful and harmful. Imposing interest rate caps on the market will stifle the ability of payday loans to help consumers, and incentivizing banks to offer such loans will do little to shield consumers from harm.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/economy/payday-policymaking/">Payday Policymaking</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>More on Restricting Credit for Poor People</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/more-on-restricting-credit-for-poor-people/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 23:29:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Regulation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/more-on-restricting-credit-for-poor-people/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>John Payne&#8217;s post today, &#8220;Restricting Credit for Poor People,&#8221; relates to an editorial in the Wall Street Journal from earlier this week, &#8220;Mandatory Usury in One Lesson: How Congress dictated [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/more-on-restricting-credit-for-poor-people/">More on Restricting Credit for Poor People</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John Payne&#8217;s post today, <a href="/2010/01/restricting-credit-for-poor.html">&#8220;Restricting Credit for Poor People,&#8221;</a> relates to an editorial in the <em>Wall Street Journal</em> from earlier this week, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704304504574610822590688140.html">&#8220;Mandatory Usury in One Lesson: How Congress dictated a 79.9% interest rate.&#8221;</a></p>
<p>From <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704304504574610822590688140.html">the editorial</a>: </p>
<blockquote><p>Banks that lend money to customers with poor credit histories have to charge more to cover the extra risk. If Congress makes this impossible, banks will respond by refusing to lend to such customers, so that it will be harder for them to re-establish their creditworthiness.</p></blockquote>
<p>
Restricting poor people&#8217;s access to credit is often an unintended consequence of regulating lending. <em>Ce qu&#8217;on ne voit pas.</em></p>
<p>Parenthetically, in the context of regulating lending, the intended consequences turn out to be very small. <em>Ce qu&#8217;on voit.</em> In the instance described in the <em>WSJ</em> editorial, the amount that a consumer would actually pay decreased only by $6. Furthermore, whether the credit card company calls it &#8220;interest rates&#8221; or &#8220;fees,&#8221; it still comes out of consumers&#8217; pockets.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/more-on-restricting-credit-for-poor-people/">More on Restricting Credit for Poor People</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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		<title>Restricting Credit for Poor People</title>
		<link>https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/restricting-credit-for-poor-people/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 22:07:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Regulation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://showmeinstitute.local/restricting-credit-for-poor-people/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m sure that &#8220;restricting credit for poor people&#8221; is not the phrase supporters of capping interest rates on short-term loans would use to describe their proposed policy, but that is [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/restricting-credit-for-poor-people/">Restricting Credit for Poor People</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m sure that &#8220;restricting credit for poor people&#8221; is not the phrase supporters of capping interest rates on short-term loans would use to describe their proposed policy, but that is the effect it will have if enacted. State Rep. Mary Still (D-Columbia) will <a href="http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/2010/jan/04/lawmaker-to-try-again-on-payday-loan-reform/">try again</a> this year to limit interest rates on loans of $500 or less at 36 percent, and prevent borrowers from renewing their loans. No one is likely to argue that payday loans are an attractive option, but when a person has no other options to turn to, they still beat a loan shark.</p>
<p>Show-Me Institute authors <a href="/2009/11/payday-loan-industry-in-the.html">have</a> <a href="/2009/08/payday-loan-regulations.html">previously</a> <a href="/2009/04/move-over-payday-loans.html">written</a> <a href="/2008/11/economics-101.html">a</a> <a href="/2008/04/fun-with-number.html">few</a> <a href="/2008/01/theres-no-free.html">blog</a> <a href="/2007/09/a-50-basis-poin.html">entries</a> <a href="http://www.showmeinstitute.org/publication/id.81/pub_detail.asp">and</a> <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/publication/id.172/pub_detail.asp">op-eds</a> pointing out that, for the vast majority of borrowers, payday lending is a useful service in a tough time. As Katherine Mangu-Ward argued in an <a href="http://reason.com/archives/2009/09/25/payday-of-reckoning">indispensable discussion</a> of the industry in <em>Reason </em>magazine:</p>
<blockquote><p>As horrifying as 400 percent annual interest sounds, it doesn’t reflect the experience of the typical borrower. No one keeps a payday loan for a year; that’s not how these things function. Payday lenders charge about $15 per $100 on a seven- or 14-day loan, plus another $20 or so in fees. They check your paperwork and then give you $100 in cash. You leave a post-dated personal check as insurance and promise to come back in two weeks with $135. If you show up empty-handed, or not at all, they cash your check. If the check bounces, the firm sends debt collectors after you—not the knee-breaking kind, but the same guys who interrupt your dinner when you miss a couple of credit card payments. If you miss your deadline to repay, the lender refuses to deal with you again. Nine out of 10 customers pay on time. [&#8230;]</p>
<p>What happens when a rate cap is imposed statewide? Dartmouth economist Jonathan Zinman looked at the payday lending industry in Oregon, where in 2007 an effective cap of $10 per $100 borrowed was imposed along with a minimum borrowing term of 31 days. (In neighboring Washington, by contrast, the standard is $15 per $100 and there is no minimum term.) Oregon’s Consumer and Business Services Department reported 346 licensed payday lending outlets at the end of 2006, six months before the cap kicked in. Seven months after the cap took effect, that number had fallen to 105. In September 2008 it was 82. In a December 2008 working paper, Zinman concluded that former payday customers in Oregon ended up using less desirable alternatives such as overdrafts and utility shutdowns, and that “restricting access caused deterioration in the overall financial condition of the Oregon households.” In summary, “restricting access to expensive credit harms consumers.”</p>
<p>A February 2008 study for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found similar results: “Compared with households in states where payday lending is permitted, households in Georgia [after a May 2004 ban on payday lending] have bounced more checks, complained more to the Federal Trade Commission about lenders and debt collectors, and filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection at a higher rate,” wrote Federal Reserve research economists Donald P. Morgan and Michael R. Strain. In North Carolina, where payday loans were banned in December 2005, “households have fared about the same. This negative correlation—reduced payday credit supply, increased credit problems contradicts the debt trap critique of payday lending, but is consistent with the hypothesis that payday credit is preferable to substitutes such as the bounced-check ‘protection’ sold by credit unions and banks or loans from pawnshops.”</p>
<p>Two weeks before I got my loan, new restrictions took effect in Virginia, including a rate cap of 36 percent. As predicted, payday lending chains are now fleeing the commonwealth. Check ’n Go stopped originating loans in Virginia and will soon close its 68 storefronts and fire its 100 employees. The State Corporation Commission counted 630 payday lending stores in April, down from 786 in December.</p></blockquote>
<p>
As well intentioned as I&#8217;m sure Still is, Virginia&#8217;s experience shows that a 36-percent ceiling on interest rates will force lenders to shut down and consumers to turn to even costlier alternatives.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org/article/regulation/restricting-credit-for-poor-people/">Restricting Credit for Poor People</a> appeared first on <a href="https://showmeinstitute.org">Show-Me Institute</a>.</p>
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