When entrepreneurs and job seekers consider where to live or invest, they don’t rely solely on tax rates or housing costs, though Show-Me Institute analysts have addressed those topics for years. People also make judgment calls about safety, governance, and community stability. In other words, they’re evaluating risk—and not just objective measures, but also perceptions.
A new study in the Journal of Business Venturing Insights offers a window into how those perceptions shape decision-making. Researchers Kaitlyn DeGhetto and Zachary Russell surveyed over 500 entrepreneurs and prospective employees about 25 of the country’s largest cities. They asked participants to rate each city on three types of institutional risk: safety, political, and social.
For Missouri, the results are worth paying attention to. Both St. Louis and Kansas City made the list. Despite their differences in culture, governance, and media attention, the two cities are perceived in remarkably similar ways.
Safety was rated the most important risk factor overall, and here both Missouri cities ranked poorly. St. Louis came in 10th and Kansas City 11th, where #1 indicates the highest perceived risk. Respondents were asked to consider the likelihood that someone’s “security and physical well-being will be endangered due to the normalization of aggression and criminality.”
This isn’t strictly about crime statistics. It’s about whether people think a city feels dangerous. For both cities, the perception alone is a barrier to investment and attracting talent.
On political risk—concern over erratic leadership or self-serving government—St. Louis ranked 17th, with Kansas City 19th. On social risk, which includes concerns around discrimination, cohesion and inclusion, St. Louis was 13th and Kansas City was 11th.
The takeaway for state and local leaders is straightforward: it’s not enough to govern well. You also must be seen as governing well. That means doing the hard work of making cities safer, administration more competent, and communities more welcoming—not as mere public relations efforts, but as visible, measurable outcomes.
Reputation isn’t everything. But in a competitive national landscape, perception drives decisions. If Missouri’s cities want to compete, they’ll need to improve both the reality and the narrative.
