In December 2024, in Springfield, Missouri, the Show-Me Institute and Show-Me Opportunity hosted an event featuring Dr. Aaron Hedlund, Chief Economist at the Show-Me Institute, and Elijah Haahr, former Missouri Speaker of the House and host of The Elijah Haahr Show on KWTO.

The discussion focused on the 2025 economic outlook for Missouri and the U.S., exploring issues such as unsustainable government spending, the growing national debt, and the Federal Reserve’s role in shaping inflation, housing, and labor markets.

This episode is a recording of that event.

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This report describes the current Missouri workforce, projects the condition of that workforce in 2040 barring a course correction, and examines potential policy fixes that could get the state’s workforce back on track. Click here to read the full report.

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The worst news for Missouri is in the Workforce category. Metrics for this category include the concentration of STEM workers and the percentage of workers with bachelor’s degrees, associate’s degrees, and Industry Recognized Credentials (IRCs). It also includes net migration of educated workers, worker training programs, right-to-work laws, and worker productivity. Missouri ranked 49th out of 50 states in Workforce, garnering just 151 of the 400 possible points.

There are a few things we know about Missouri’s workforce now and its prospects for the future. The percentage of Missourians with college degrees has been declining in recent years. The percentage of Missourians with bachelor’s degrees has declined from 31.9 percent in 2020 to 31.7 percent in 2022. (For reference, it was 25.6 percent in 2010.) Not going up as fast or remaining stagnant is problematic. Declining is very bad news.

We also know that just 60 percent of our 61,200 high school graduates in 2022 were considered to be college or career ready when they left with their diplomas. The Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) determines college or career readiness by scores on the ACT or SAT college entrance exams, the ACT WorkKeys assessment, which measures career readiness skills, the Accuplacer assessment, which is a college placement exam, and the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) military assessment.

So, our workforce is already in bad shape, and we are handing diplomas to nearly 25,000 high school graduates who are known to not be college or career ready. Wouldn’t you think that our leaders would be addressing this like the crisis that it is?

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Using household employment data, Wall, a professor of economics at Lindenwood University, tests whether employment growth in the two major cities appears to cause employment growth throughout the rest of the state.

Interestingly, the data show a statistically significant relationship between growth in Saint Louis and outstate Missouri. For example, a one percentage point gain in employment in Saint Louis would lead to a half percentage point gain in outstate Missouri the following year and then smaller gains in the years after that. Wall did not find as strong of a relationship in Kansas City, though the results were not far from being statistically significant.

Why these findings occur is a matter that can be explored further, but the point is clear. Saint Louis and, to a lesser extent, Kansas City are economic drivers for the state. Missourians have a vested interest in seeing sound policies put in place to help these cities flourish.

Click here to read the full report.

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And if you’re like me and not one of the best drivers in the world, well, there’s always a seat in the stadium or at home. After all, it is a spectator sport.

But what’s all this have to do with Missouri? A lot, actually. Indiana, home to the 500, is often viewed as a peer and competitor to Missouri, and in recent years, the Hoosier State has started pulling ahead of us in economic growth. At the end of World War II, Missouri’s population was a touch larger than Indiana’s; today Indiana is larger than Missouri by a half-million people, with a bigger economy to boot.

For years, Missouri has behaved more like a spectator than a racer in this economic competition. Missouri is falling behind, and as Institute analysts have written before, Missouri’s not just falling behind Indiana in the race for growth.

The good news is it seems like Missouri policymakers may finally be turning a corner. The 2021 legislative session was generally a very positive one that built on some of the good government and deregulatory progress made in recent years. In fact, the state started gaining some national accolades for the work of its policymakers, especially the work on licensing reforms. As someone who’s been at the Show-Me Institute for about a decade now, I can tell you that national accolades for Missouri lawmaking weren’t just rare before; they were virtually non-existent.

But will this positive trend continue? Time will tell. There is so much work left to be done for real school choice, tax credit reform, protecting individuals’ rights and reining in overreaching local government, and so many other issues that we’ve talked about again and again. While the 2021 session was good, it still could have been much better.

“If you ain’t first, you’re last!” Ricky Bobby declares after a race in the comedy Talladega Nights, and while the line’s tied up in Will Ferrell’s patented oafishness, the mentality isn’t exactly wrong. Missouri policymakers need to—and should continue to—think not in terms of what maintains the status quo in the state, but in terms of what can make the state the best.

The race for growth and reform has already started, and right now Missouri is stuck in the middle of the pack. Missouri policymakers, in this summer’s special sessions and beyond, should race to win against our fellow states. Racing to do anything short of winning for Missourians is losing.

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As things currently stand, the American Rescue Plan promises jobless workers $300 per week on top of the usual wage replacement rate of just under 50% all the way into September. For most of the workers who are receiving nearly the same or more to remain jobless, it is understandable that they might be reluctant to accept a pay cut just to go back to work. For small businesses struggling to reopen, these unemployment benefits represent anywhere from a short-term headache to an existential threat. Many of them operate on small profit margins and cannot afford to compete with the artificial compensation offered by a federal government with a nearly endless capacity to borrow. Tacitly acknowledging the role of unemployment benefits in the lackluster jobs numbers, President Biden is now exhorting workers that “if you’re receiving unemployment benefits and you’re offered a suitable job, you can’t refuse that job and just keep getting unemployment benefits.” He has also directed the Department of Labor to work with states to reinstate job search requirements, which in their current form are mostly window dressing that cannot effectively monitor or induce search effort. Instead of trying to fill the leaky bucket caused by bad policy, the federal government ought to plug the hole and stop erecting hurdles to small business hiring and reopening.

In Missouri, the economy sports what sounds like a healthy 4.2% unemployment rate, but here, too, many Missourians have exited the labor force, and there are over 114,000 fewer people working relative to back in February 2020. Missouri’s recently announced termination of enhanced unemployment benefits is one positive step toward addressing this jobs shortfall and returning its economy to pre-pandemic strength.

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Growing concern about the spread of the coronavirus has led multiple localities to institute stay-at-home orders and order many businesses to close. We are now starting to see the impact of statewide efforts to practice social distancing on Missouri’s economy. As the number of unemployed or laid off Missourians continue to rise, it’s fair to also worry about how drastically these workforce changes will negatively impact both state and local tax revenues for the coming year. Keeping Missouri’s budget balanced, as is required by the state’s constitution, will require cuts in funding to many state programs when income and sales tax revenues come in much lower than expected.

Missourians bracing for at least another month at home should also prepare for an economic landscape that looks different going forward, because the resulting constraint on economic activity will have significant consequences.

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In this essay, Rik Hafer and William Rogers provide insight into what has happened to cause such slow statewide growth. The authors go beyond the standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product, and examine alternative measures of prosperity such as personal income and job growth. The picture that emerges is complex, but perhaps the most troubling finding—given the connection between an educated workforce and economic growth—is that Missouri consistently struggles to attract college graduates, particularly those with advanced degrees, to the state.

To read the complete essay, click on the link below.

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The report projects Missouri to be the ninth-highest state in tech growth over the next decade with 2.9 percent growth, ahead of the national 2.1 percent projection. The tech industry includes energy, environmental, life sciences and information technology (IT).

Despite projected growth, Missouri workers may not be prepared to fill the needs of an expanding tech industry, as jobs could outpace the availability of skilled workers. A survey by Gallup of 1,000 Missouri employers find that only 44 percent were satisfied with the current availability of skilled workers, and only 15 percent agree that high schools are preparing students for the workforce. In 2016 one of the largest workforce gaps was in Science and Technology—around a 9 percent gap  between the workforce demand and available workers.

This gap shows the need for more high school graduates prepared to enter the tech field. If students graduate with the proper credentials, they could have access to a high-demand job and enter the workforce immediately. The largest tech sector in Missouri is IT, of which high school students can earn over 15 IT-related industry-recognized credentials (IRCs) approved by the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE). An IRC is a nationally recognized credential that tests job skills, awarded by a third-party professional organization. In 2018, fewer than 500 IT-related IRCs were earned among Missouri high school students (less than one percent of the graduating class if all test takers were seniors) according to data received from DESE.

Florida and North Carolina have found that providing bonus pay to teachers is one way to get more students to graduate with an IRC. Bonus pay encourages high schools and teachers to focus on the important work of preparing students for a career.

A growing tech sector would be a huge boon to Missouri’s economy. But if we don’t act now to ensure our workforce is ready for these jobs, the potential boon will turn into a missed opportunity.

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The State of the Heartland Factbook 2018, a joint effort by the Walton Family Foundation and the Brookings Institution, uses 26 different socioeconomic measures to detail the performance of the 19 states that compose America’s Heartland. This data is compiled into the full report, and is accompanied by an interesting interactive database.

This new information makes it easy to compare Missouri to the other states in our region. However, the comparison is hardly flattering. The two best examples of Missouri’s stagnation are the change over time in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total value of everything produced by the people and companies of the state, and standard of living. Measuring the change in GDP from 2010 to 2016, Missouri only grew faster than two nearby states (Mississippi and Louisiana), averaging a 0.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Most of the other states had a CAGR of over 1.0 percent.

Standard of living (which the authors measure as GDP per capita) showed practically identical results, with Missouri once again coming in third from the bottom (again ahead of only Mississippi and Louisiana). While Missouri showed a positive CAGR of 0.5 percent in standard of living, the majority of the states where data was reported averaged at least a 1.0 percent CAGR from 2010 to 2016.

The story was the same with regard to wage growth. Missouri held its popular position of third from the bottom, a CAGR of 0.4 percent from 2010 to 2016.

Clearly, there is work to be done in Missouri if we want to climb to a position where we are competitive with the states surrounding us. Policy initiatives that spur economic growth will be key in helping turn the Show-Me state into a better place to work and live.

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Based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June data for Missouri, there is good news for our state, too. Our unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6% in May, which was already down from 3.7% in January. Missouri is now half a percentage point below the national unemployment rate. Additionally, Missouri’s labor force saw an increase of 8,000 people in just the last month. These data might suggest that an increasing number of Missourians are interested in working, and they are successfully finding jobs.

These statistics do not tell the whole story, however. Historically, Missouri is one of the slowest growing states in the nation. Compared to Tennessee, a demographically similar state, Missouri is still underperforming despite having similar unemployment rates. When looking at the growth in employment, Tennessee trumps Missouri. The figure below displays total employment as a percentage of 1990 employment. Even with a good last few months, Missouri lags behind Tennessee.

With similar demographics and access to resources, it should be possible for Missouri to experience Tennessee’s level of growth. As we discussed before, Tennessee’s improved performance might be related to its education and workforce development initiatives or lower tax burdens. Missouri has been heading in the right direction in recent months—but should we be content, or should we examine whether Missouri could benefit from adopting the policies that have helped Tennessee’s growth outpace ours?

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Missouri’s low unemployment rate is welcome news, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. There are other important factors that predict economic well-being, such as labor force participation and statewide output, where Missouri’s economy is underperforming compared to other states. Tennessee, for example, is a demographically similar state but has shown significant growth compared to Missouri while also boasting a 3.5 percent unemployment rate.

As shown in the graphs below, Missouri’s labor force is stagnating. During an economic expansion, one would expect the number of interested laborers to increase. Missouri, however, defies these expectations. Our labor force shrunk by almost 30,000 people from 2016 to 2017. In this same period, our neighbor to the southeast, Tennessee, saw a spike in their labor force with 81,000 people joining.

People are entering the workforce in Tennessee to take advantage of the employment opportunities there. Some are Tennessee residents who have decided to look for work, and some are coming from outside the state. The state’s low unemployment rate suggests that Tennessee is capable of absorbing these additional potential workers and turning them into payroll employees. Compared to Missouri, Tennessee is attracting and employing people at a faster rate.

Additionally, Missouri’s production lags behind that of Tennessee as well. Missouri’s real gross domestic product, the measure of overall economic health, is growing slowly. Since 2012, Tennessee routinely experienced 2 to 4 percent annual growth in real GDP. Missouri struggles to hit 1 percent annual growth. The growing gap between Missouri’s and Tennessee’s GDPs, shown below, is stark.

Such slow growth is problematic for Missouri’s economy. The national economy is doing well, but Missouri is failing to take advantage of the rising levels of consumption, investment, and employment found throughout the country and is consequently losing out on major economic opportunities.

So what about Tennessee as compared to Missouri makes its economy grow faster and pull more people into the workforce? There are a few possibilities. First, Tennessee has no income tax, and two years ago Tennessee began to phase out the tax on investment income and will eliminate it entirely by 2022. Second, beginning in 2014 Governor Bill Haslam started reforming higher education by offering all high school graduates the opportunity to earn an associate’s degree or professional certification at no cost to them. Moreover, there has been greater coordination between colleges and businesses to ensure that the curriculum fits employers’ needs so that students learn skills that are in high demand. Third, Tennessee is a Right-to-Work state. Fourth, Tennessee is known as having a business-friendly environment.

It may be hard to pinpoint exactly what has led to Tennessee’s success, but tax-cutting policies combined with investment in workforce development and other pro-business policies like Right to Work stand out as reasons Tennessee is experiencing growth that Missourians can only envy. Continuing to push for elimination of the individual income tax and exploring potential workforce development policies could work just as well in Missouri.

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But one of the most attention-getting findings contained in a newly released report from the Brookings Institution titled “How Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Could Affect State Economies“ might cause you to think otherwise.

As the Brookings report points out, Missouri’s imports of steel and aluminum amount to $1.4 billion, or 7.4 percent of our state’s total imports. By that measure, Missouri’s exposure to tariff-driven increases in the price of those two commodities is the highest of any state in the country. But how meaningful is that metric?

Joseph Haslag, chief economist for the Show-Me Institute, points out that the metric is misleading for a couple of reasons. One is the presence of a large automotive sector in our state, and the other is the simple fact that Missouri is just not a large importing state.

A better measure, therefore, is to look at Missouri’s exposure relative to our state’s total output of goods and service—its gross domestic product. By that measure, Missouri falls from the state that is “most exposed” to steel and aluminum purchases to the 8th most exposed state—still not anything to be happy about.

At both the state and national levels, agriculture is one sector of the economy that is likely to suffer. As Blake Hurst, president of the Missouri Farm Bureau, told me, “Farmers are going to be hit two ways—having to pay more for tractors, combines, and other equipment made from steel and aluminum, and also having to deal with the possible loss of foreign markets due to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports.”

 Watch this space for further information on how changes in tariffs and trade agreements are likely to affect Missourians.

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Over the years, we have marked the progress (or lack thereof) that Missouri has made by reporting new data on gross domestic product (GDP) released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). If you pick out a single year’s data, Missouri seems to do okay. From 2015 to 2016, for instance, real GDP in Missouri increased at a 1.15 percent rate, ranking 31st out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Washington recorded the fastest growth rate, at 3.7 percent. It was a bad year for states that rely on natural resources: Louisiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Alaska, and North Dakota all reported declines in real GDP from 2015 to 2016. So, it looks like the recent decline in oil and coal prices helped push Missouri up into the middle of the pack. For reference, in the United States as a whole, reported real GDP increased at a 1.54 percent rate in 2016—much faster than in Missouri.

But year-over-year data doesn’t reveal larger, more important economic trends; any given year can be dominated by business cycle fluctuations. Growth is focused on long-term trends. When you look at the entire 1997–2016 period, the picture is quite different from 2015. Little wiggles in the year-over-year data get smoothed out and show the economic fundamentals operating within a state. Over the full two-decade period, we see that Missouri’s growth has been paltry.

During this period, Missouri has grown at half the pace of the United States as a whole (1.024% compared to 2.05%). Out of all 50 states and the District of Columbia, Missouri ranks 48th in economic growth; we trailed Mississippi by 0.001%—we were almost 47th. For an idea of the impact of Missouri’s poor performance, imagine you and a friend had started at the same job in 1997, each making $50,000 a year. If your friend’s salary grew at the rate of the country as a whole, and yours grew at Missouri’s rate, the friend would have made about $72,800 in 2016 while you’d have made roughly $60,400!

In a recent essay, Joe Haslag and Michael Austin identified some policies that could help explain why Missouri took a nosedive after 1997. There was the corporate income tax rate hike in 1993. There was a shift of spending from education and infrastructure to social services. There was the sharp increase in the state’s tax credit programs. And, though more difficult to measure, there was the regulatory burden that seems only to have increased over time. (Do you remember a time when the state government eliminated a regulation?)

The bottom line is that state government needs to take a thoughtful approach to policy if it is to boost economic growth. Lower tax rates, for example, result in higher returns on capital and labor. The state should look for high returns on its own investments as well, just like a private citizen or business would. Common-sense adjustments to emphasize education and infrastructure over policies that transfer wealth from one group of citizens or businesses to another are needed unless Missouri’s policymakers are satisfied with 47th place.

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Why the separation? Austin and I looked at the how various aspects of Missouri’s fiscal policy evolved over the past three decades, and we examined some possible reasons. For example, some people contend that Missouri state government is not demanding enough goods and services; in other words, too little state demand is the cause of slower growth. This view is discredited by the fact that state spending as a fraction of total income has been trending slightly upward. Government spends money less efficiently than the private sector, so the increase in state spending may have been part of the cause of Missouri’s anemic economic growth. In any case, lack of state demand was not the reason for the slow growth because the state’s spending as a percentage of total income has increased.

Another possible explanation is changes in the composition of state spending. In particular, spending on public welfare and health increased while spending on education and roads declined. The increased spending on social services, along with reduced investment in education and infrastructure, could account for the slower economic growth since social services amount to a transfer from one group to another while education and infrastructure are more valuable, productive forms of spending.

Did changes in revenue, particularly taxation, change? Missouri has relied relatively more on federal transfers to fund its spending since 1997. There was the 1993 hike in the corporate income tax rate, but no change in the individual income tax rate. At the state level, the sales tax base has shrunk because of statutory changes. Since we do observe a lower Missouri economic growth rate after the corporate income tax rate was raised from 4 percent to 6.25 percent, the corporate income tax is a candidate that could explain why state growth slowed.

Lastly, tax credits redeemed by Missouri state government have increased dramatically over the past 20 years. The concern with state tax credits is the return on this investment compared with the market rate of return. Remember that tax credits are state government funding specific projects while other non–tax credit projects are subject to market forces. This fact leads to the question: What is return on the state tax credit “investment?” If the state frequently offers tax credits to low-return projects, then economic growth will decline. So, we wonder if poor investment performance in the form of expanding tax credit programs might help explain why Missouri has experienced slow economic growth. In her June 2017 report on tax credit programs, Missouri State Auditor Nicole Galloway estimated that “$418 million in fiscal year 2016 redemptions (73 percent of total redemptions) were for programs with benefit/cost ratios less than 1.0, meaning the program returns less to the state than it costs.”

Overall, our research does two things. First, it demonstrates that Missouri economic growth veered into the slow-growth lane about 20 years ago. Second, it identifies factors that could account for the decline in state economic growth. While we don’t have conclusive proof of the cause, we have zeroed in on some possibilities—the growth in state spending, the shift in the composition of spending, the corporate income tax rate hike, and the growth in state tax credits—that could explain why our state is performing so poorly relative to the rest of the country. Until we have analyzed more data from around the country, we can’t allocate blame precisely among the factors we have identified. Nonetheless, at a minimum, shouldn’t Missouri abandon policies (such as tax credits) that have not been shown to produce economic growth?

Growth is ultimately about innovative things that people do. Where innovative people tend to locate does depend on the economic environment in which they operate, and that environment is determined in part by state-level policy. Whatever else Missouri state government has done in the last 20 years, it hasn’t been focused on attracting the kind of people who drive job creation and growth. That needs to change if Missourians are to enjoy an economy that keeps pace with the rest of the country.

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