Susan Pendergrass speaks with Jude Schwalbach, senior policy analyst at Reason Foundation, about declining K-12 enrollment nationwide and what it means for the future of open enrollment. They discuss why enrollment dropped in 40 states since the pandemic, how districts have responded to increased competition from charter, private, and homeschooling options, why open enrollment tends to cause far less disruption than critics predict, the case for Missouri to catch up with its neighboring states, and more.

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Susan Pendergrass (00:00):
Thank you so much. Jude Schwalbach, you’re back, I think for the third time, from the Reason Foundation. We appreciate you joining the Show-Me Institute Podcast once again, taking the time.

Jude Schwalbach (00:09):
Yeah, thank you for having me. I’m always excited to join.

Susan Pendergrass (00:26):
We were chatting for a second before we started recording. I talk about open enrollment a lot in Missouri. We don’t have it. In so many places in this country, kids choose where they go to school. They don’t just look at their utility bill, or their parents make this life-or-death real estate decision where they have to look at all the schools before they buy a house so they can pick where they go. Missouri has been really reluctant to let anybody choose a school over being assigned to one. I’ve been saying for some time that we have this phenomenon happening simultaneously: we don’t have as many kids anymore. I’ve talked to demographers on this podcast. We know that birth rates topped out in 2009, kindergarten enrollment topped out in 2013, and graduating high school seniors topped out a year or two ago. It’s a fact you can see all through the pipeline: there are fewer kids. In my mind, that’s going to make open enrollment more attractive, because we’re going to have districts that, for no explainable reason, just don’t have as many kids. Some of our top-performing districts, like Clayton, used to have 2,500 kids and now have 2,000. I keep thinking districts are going to wake up and realize they either have to fire teachers or get in the open enrollment game and actually have faith that they’ll attract students. You recently wrote about this, and that’s why I wanted to bring you on. Tell me what’s going on nationally with these enrollment trends and how you think that impacts this idea of whether kids should be assigned or allowed to pick.

Jude Schwalbach (01:51):
Yeah, so the latest national data we have on K-12 enrollments is from fall 2024. What we see is that in 40 states, K-12 enrollments dropped, by about 1.4 million students between 2019, right before the pandemic, and 2024. However, 10 states did manage to avoid those drops. In two of them, Florida and Utah, enrollments remained flat, they didn’t gain or lose students. The other eight states, places like North Dakota, Delaware, Alabama, and Texas, gained students. They really stand out because they gained students when literally everyone else lost students. They didn’t gain a ton, those eight states together gained around eighty thousand students, but when everyone else is losing and you’re gaining, you look pretty good. There are probably three factors driving this. As you mentioned, there are just fewer kids. The number of births in every single state except Florida

Susan Pendergrass (02:39):
Right.

Jude Schwalbach (02:53):
had dropped between 2014 and 2019, and those are the corresponding kindergarten cohorts five years later, 2019 to 2024. So there are just fewer kids. There’s also migration. There’s plenty of domestic migration occurring. In some states, especially the ones that gained students, they received quite a few new residents from other states. There’s also states, I think it was North Dakota actually, that lost a lot of residents through domestic migration but received a bunch of new residents from abroad, which reversed their general population decline and had them gain students. Presumably those families from abroad brought students with them, which is part of why they’re not losing students.

Susan Pendergrass (03:41):
Mm.

Jude Schwalbach (03:53):
There are various economic factors driving those things. But another component is that satisfaction with public schools is at an all-time low, especially post-pandemic.

Susan Pendergrass (03:50):
Yeah.

Jude Schwalbach (03:53):
Families are starting to choose schools other than public schools at a much higher rate than they used to, because they have more options. There are states with universal private school choice programs now, which ten years ago were just a pipe dream. You could achieve a small, targeted private school choice program, but not much more. Then there are families choosing homeschooling. This has created a much more competitive education marketplace. And it’s not just states with robust private school choice programs where you see increased private school enrollment. Places like California and New York, which have no private school choice, have also seen their private schools increase in popularity in the interim while public enrollment has been declining. So if you’re going to be in this tighter market with fewer students and increased competition from homeschools and private schools, you’re going to want to provide some flexibility within the public system to make it more attractive to families. Flexibility like open enrollment. Sorry, that was a really long answer.

Susan Pendergrass (04:59):
No, I think it’s perfect. It makes me think of the cliche of skating to where the puck is going, rather than where it is right now. I feel like a lot of the pushback from folks is they’re just looking at where the puck is right now. They’re like, well, we’ve got lower teacher-student ratios, fewer kids in every classroom, this is great. Or, bringing in a whole new topic here, the federal tax credit that’s looming for private school choice, where people can donate their tax dollars to a scholarship organization, and you have leadership in the teachers unions telling Democratic governors, you better not do this, because the way we’re going to keep the kids in the public schools is to lock them in. That seems so short-sighted to me, when, like you just said, we can look at the enrollment trends and know that while there are fewer kindergartners today, ten years from now there’s going to be another five to ten percent drop-off in kindergartners. Who are we kidding?

Jude Schwalbach (05:58):
Yeah. As that market gets tighter, the funding those students produce is going to become more important to public schools. If you look at California, there’s a report by their Legislative Analyst’s Office that found that districts initially losing students through open enrollment, where students were transferring to other districts with better test scores, or maybe they wanted different academic opportunities like AP classes, those districts reached out to families and said, what can we do to get you to stay? Families said, actually, we don’t want to leave the district, we just want to go to a different school inside our district. Or they said they wanted a language immersion class or something along those lines. The districts responded to families’ frustrations, and not only did some of them stop the bleeding, they actually gained students from other districts because they were doing something good that families wanted. So when you create a more flexible system, you shouldn’t just assume you’re going to lose students. There’s real opportunity to gain students as well.

Susan Pendergrass (07:09):
Yeah, I’ve certainly heard superintendents say it forced them to stop and think about what they offer. What is our mission? What do we offer? When you have a captive enrollment zone, you don’t need to do that. I studied this a long time ago in Massachusetts, and people would say, well, you can’t really prove that districts respond to competition. But I did research on it and talked to superintendents. They said, we moved the date of our orientation so kids would come visit our school first, or we redid parts of the school that parents had been complaining about. There are these little micro-responses, which is to say they realized that this is no longer a guaranteed monopoly. They have to start responding to families. And in the end, everyone kind of wins.

Jude Schwalbach (08:01):
Yeah, another good example that builds on what you were just saying is Minneapolis Public Schools. For the past ten years, their enrollments have been in decline, largely because of competition with charter schools and other public schools in the area. But recently they reversed that ten-year decline and gained new students, because when they were doing school tours, they started following up with parents, saying, we just want to remind you what you thought, and these are the options we offer that other districts nearby don’t.

Susan Pendergrass (08:24):
Yeah. What’d you think?

Jude Schwalbach (08:33):
This is what makes us a unique education option. I think it’s no surprise that families liked that personal touch and started enrolling in Minneapolis Public Schools.

Susan Pendergrass (08:40):
Yeah, we need it. I know you study school finance a lot too. I wonder, in Missouri anyway, certainly within St. Louis County but across Missouri generally, the number of teachers being hired has only continued to increase. There’s this belief that spending on public education should only go one direction, up, regardless of the number of students, and that the number of teachers should only go up. Our state education agency, one of their only five goals is more teacher certifications, more, more, more, as though there’s an ever-expanding pool of students without looking at the reality. Oddly, I just did a podcast on Social Security and they’re doing the same thing. They’re not looking at the reality of the number of workers, they’re just operating on the assumption that there will always be more. Our schools are doing bond referendums to build new schools in Columbia, Missouri, even though the new ones they just opened are under capacity. Their enrollment is down two or three percent and expected to go down more, but

Jude Schwalbach (09:50):
Yeah, I think state policymakers should take steps to encourage districts to be more thoughtful about how they’re using taxpayer dollars. Indiana, where I live, did something a couple of years ago where districts have to prepare for permanent closures if one of their school facilities has lost ten percent or more of its students over a five-year period. It’s basically saying, look, if you’re not able to attract new students, if your local enrollment is declining, we shouldn’t be keeping these facilities open and draining taxpayer dollars. To be fair, this is a really painful decision for communities. No one likes to close schools, no one likes to rearrange staff. But it’s not fair to taxpayers to keep funding and maintaining buildings that are really only educating a small fraction of students. Florida also publishes a report on school facility capacity, but most states don’t even make this information public. A good first step is just making this sort of data available so families and taxpayers, when they get approached about bonds or hear about decisions to hire more staff, can ask, if your enrollment is declining and your buildings are half empty, why are you doing this? This sort of information helps hold district administrators accountable.

Susan Pendergrass (11:13):
Yeah, and the way schools are funded, and have been for at least a hundred years, these are very long-term commitments, because school districts are in the real estate business. They buy the land, build the building, fund it over fifty years rather than leasing, like a lot of charter schools do. They’re in the business of buying land and building buildings. And teachers, that’s a twenty-five or thirty-year commitment too. That’s also hard to adjust down. There are ways to do it, but districts are making these long-term commitments without paying close attention to the trends happening right under their nose. It’s a very odd situation to me, because you can see this coming, and we’re not getting a response out of the system. And to your earlier point about school choice programs taking students, they’re taking the blame. They’re blaming school choice for the fact that they have to close schools when that’s not actually the reason.

Jude Schwalbach (12:15):
Yeah, there’s a really interesting paper, I think published by Thomas Dee from Stanford in the last couple of years, where he looked at why 1.8 million students left the public school system since the pandemic. He looked at increased competition from private school choice, homeschooling, and changing demographics, whether it’s families moving across state lines or lower birth rates. What he found is that he couldn’t explain why one-third of those students exited the public school system. It’s just unexplained. There are demographic factors, there’s increased competition, those certainly matter, but they aren’t the only reasons. We don’t even fully know why some of these students are exiting the public system. But you can’t change the fact that they are.

Susan Pendergrass (13:00):
And you don’t address it by locking the door. They want to close the gate and lock it to stop it, and that to me is the most short-sighted approach.

Jude Schwalbach (13:09):
Yeah, I think locking students within a particular system without allowing them any agency in school selection is really unfair. If states are going to require you to go to school, you should have some agency in what that school is, because education is a really personal experience.

Susan Pendergrass (13:27):
Mm-hmm.

Jude Schwalbach (13:28):
Maybe you don’t get along well with a particular teacher, or their teaching style isn’t a good fit for you, or maybe you’re being bullied at school. But where you go to school shouldn’t ultimately depend on your parents’ largest financial investment, which is very much constrained by their income. Increasing open enrollment options, where if there’s space available,

Susan Pendergrass (13:45):
Yeah, yeah.

Jude Schwalbach (13:50):
we’re not talking about building new facilities or hiring new teachers to accommodate these students, these are spots that are actually open right now, and allowing students who don’t live in that district or attendance zone to attend that school, I think that’s just a common-sense reform.

Susan Pendergrass (14:05):
Do you think declining enrollment is going to spur that into action more? Is it going to have an impact on whether states like Missouri consider open enrollment?

Jude Schwalbach (14:17):
It seems like it could go either way, honestly. If there’s declining enrollment, that means there are spots available and districts would have an incentive to try to attract new students from other places. But on the flip side, individuals don’t always see the opportunity, they only see the cost, which is, we could lose students. What’s interesting is that when you look at open enrollment programs across the nation, especially the largest ones with the most established data, places like Wisconsin, Colorado, or Florida, you don’t see massive enrollment fluctuations when these programs are launched or even soon afterward. Instead you see small, incremental change, which means districts have plenty of time to adjust. In some cases it could mean they actually reverse course and start gaining students. I know in Missouri there’s a lot of concern in rural areas that they’ll only lose students. But the irony is that if you look at Wisconsin, which also has a lot of school districts, around four hundred, their rural districts actually gained students on net in their most recent open enrollment report. Sure, they lost some students, but they ended up attracting more students from their suburban counterparts. I think rural districts can absolutely compete successfully

Susan Pendergrass (15:22):
Yeah, we have over five hundred.

Jude Schwalbach (15:44):
in a more competitive education marketplace.

Susan Pendergrass (15:47):
We actually just released a report saying exactly what you just said, by my colleague Dr. Cory Koedel, showing that there isn’t a massive, or really much of any, enrollment disruption in the first three or four years after these programs pass, in states that have had them for a long time or even a short time. There really isn’t a disruption in the way that, when a bill gets a committee hearing in Missouri, folks from the school boards association or superintendents association say, oh my god, we won’t be able to keep up, the kids will be coming and going, it’s going to completely throw off our enrollment. But we’ve found there really isn’t a massive disruption. On the one hand, you have a pretty low cost to districts. On the other hand, as you mentioned, there’s a really large benefit possible for an individual family who has a child they have to force onto the bus every day because they dread going to school due to their teacher, bullying, or whatever. It’s a big benefit at the individual level for those families, and the cost is really quite small or very dispersed.

Jude Schwalbach (16:49):
Yeah, one thing I’ll note is that it benefits districts as well. In California there are small rural districts that actively rely on K-12 open enrollment to keep their doors open. One administrator basically said, look, this doesn’t let us hire new staff, we’re not making money off this program, but we aren’t letting staff go either. We’re keeping our doors open and the lights on in our schools. If they didn’t have open enrollment, that would not be happening. They’d have to shut the school or let go of staff. It’s really important to remember this is a real opportunity for districts to gain students.

Susan Pendergrass (17:30):
Yeah. As Cory points out all the time, if you have a fourth grade classroom with ten students and you can add two or three more, your marginal cost is almost zero. You probably already have the textbooks, the computer, the desk is sitting there, it’s literally idle assets. And those three students, even if they don’t bring a lot of money with them depending on how the funding follows the student, that’s a very low marginal cost for some marginal revenue. I think the more districts see it that way, because I don’t think in Missouri that funding for education is going to continue to just go up. We have a tight budget and we know enrollment is going down. That’s going to be a whole new horizon for folks to accept. And partly, similar to the findings across those forty states, we have more old people. We have fewer young people, more old people, and older people are expensive and need a lot of services. So schools and assisted living facilities are going to be competing against each other in a sense, and I think the trend would suggest assisted living wins out because there’s more of those people and fewer children. Some of these trade-offs are going to have to be considered in a way that no one

Jude Schwalbach (18:44):
Yeah.

Susan Pendergrass (18:48):
seems to want to do. So is open enrollment growing across the country, stagnant, or on the decline?

Jude Schwalbach (18:49):
Yeah, I think that’s certainly correct. Since 2021, eighteen states have strengthened their open enrollment policy in some capacity.

Susan Pendergrass (19:06):
Okay. I know our neighbor Kansas did, right? Oklahoma too, our other neighbor.

Jude Schwalbach (19:10):
Yeah, Kansas did it, Oklahoma too. Several of your neighbors have improved their open enrollment policies.

Susan Pendergrass (19:17):
Well, Oklahoma has complete universal school choice. If you move across our northern border, you can pick public or private. If you move across our western border, you can pick any public school. The big pushback on that was that the highest-quality, most desirable districts would see a rapid influx, and they haven’t. In Oklahoma you can either pick a public school or take a tax credit for private school. Then we have Arkansas as a neighbor, and they’re also universal. We’re kind of getting surrounded by it and we’re just holding out as the last bastion

Jude Schwalbach (19:43):
Yeah.

Susan Pendergrass (19:51):
of assigned public schools.

Jude Schwalbach (19:52):
Yeah, I think Illinois and Kentucky are about on par with Missouri, but I think their programs are actually slightly better. Not by much, but

Susan Pendergrass (20:03):
We sort of write off Illinois, like, at least we’re not Illinois, but they have a lot of public sector problems. Yeah, we have no open enrollment, very limited charter schools, and a very small scholarship program. So ninety-five percent of our kids are going to their assigned public school with no other option besides virtual.

Jude Schwalbach (20:23):
Yeah. But to answer your question, I think there’s a real opportunity for open enrollment to continue to grow, especially in states, I think Nevada is a good harbinger of what could be coming. They passed a strong within-district open enrollment policy last year, and that was a bipartisan bill, championed by the governor and Senate leadership that was Democrat. I think part of the reason they wanted to do that was to strengthen their public school system, to ensure that students had a reason to invest in their public schools, especially low-income ones, and one of the ways they wanted to do that was through creating flexibility within the public system.

Susan Pendergrass (21:12):
Yeah.

Jude Schwalbach (21:12):
That was one of the compromises that occurred there. You also see that in Kansas. That was an earlier reform, but also a compromise. That one was passed by increasing funding for public schools, and Republicans got increased flexibility within the public school system for students.

Susan Pendergrass (21:18):
Yeah. I mean, when you poll parents it’s ridiculously popular. Everybody clearly wants to pick.

Jude Schwalbach (21:37):
Yeah, families really want these policies. I think residential assignment works for some people, that’s the form of school choice they like. They like being able to purchase a home in a district and be guaranteed a spot. But if there are extra seats, there should be students who can fill those seats, especially when funding is flexible and portable.

Susan Pendergrass (22:03):
I believe declining enrollment is going to motivate open enrollment. I have a very optimistic view of this: superintendents and school boards are going to wake up and say, our enrollment is declining, the only way we can turn this around is to try to get kids from across the lines. In St. Louis County we have more than a dozen school districts within one county, for reasons that would take a two-hour podcast to explain. It’s very easy for a child to just cross the street and be in a different district, and I feel like districts are going to have a wake-up call and start trying to get those kids from across the street rather than making their parents move. Because it’s going to be that or lay off teachers. You can only keep your teaching staff for a limited amount of time if your enrollment is going down and your schools are staying open.

Jude Schwalbach (22:58):
I think you’re right, Susan. When you look at the NCES projections, which are a little dated at this point, they anticipate losing millions more students by 2031.

Susan Pendergrass (23:08):
Yeah, yeah. So our heyday in Missouri, you could kind of say we had a million students, we had about 952,000 or so. If you wanted to round up, you’d say Missouri has about a million students. Now we have, depending on how you count pre-K and ungraded, somewhere between 830,000 and 850,000. And the NCES projections you just mentioned project that Missouri will be below 800,000, more like 785,000. We can’t even round up to a million anymore. We’re going to be more like 780,000. That’s more than a twenty percent loss, and that’s a lot.

Jude Schwalbach (23:58):
Yeah, enrollment declines aren’t new to the US. This happened in the seventies and eighties, but it took almost two decades for districts to recover their lost enrollment. That’s a long time, and it means you can’t hang on to buildings or staff in that interim when you don’t have the enrollment to justify them.

Susan Pendergrass (24:19):
Yeah, and I think in Missouri, good.

Jude Schwalbach (24:19):
I don’t think they returned to 1970 enrollment levels until 1997, if I remember correctly. There’s the baby bust,

Susan Pendergrass (24:31):
Wow, because the baby boom went through and then there’s a baby bust. But we don’t have a baby boomlet on the other side. There’s no evidence of one right now based on global trends.

Jude Schwalbach (24:39):
Yeah, it was fifteen years later before they even saw that sort of resurgence in births. They didn’t know either, and we don’t know either.

Susan Pendergrass (24:47):
Yeah. Yeah. I like that, that’s hopeful, that’s true. It just frustrates me, because if Missouri wants to hold out as the last residential-assignment state in the era of declining enrollment, I just feel like, there’s a professor from SLU, Ness Sandoval, who talks about Missouri demographics a lot, and he’s not optimistic about where we’re headed. One thing I think we could do to turn it around is throw open the doors on school choice to try to get families to locate here, but we’re kind of doing the opposite. Well, thanks so much. I appreciate you coming on and explaining it. I think it’s pretty interesting stuff, and I think we’re going to have to talk about this more as more enrollment numbers come in and we see how folks respond. I’m hopeful that Missouri legislators will get it and will press for it in the 2027 session. We’ll be pressing for it at the Show-Me Institute, but maybe I’ll use all of your data, Jude, and hope they read it and see what’s on the horizon. That would be awesome. Thank you so much, I appreciate it.

Jude Schwalbach (25:47):
That would be great. Thank you, Susan.

Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

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According to the study, the assessment is based upon:

. . . data that states submitted to the federal government, [and] ranks each state’s highway system in 13 categories, including traffic fatalities, pavement condition, congestion, spending per mile, administrative costs and more. This edition of the Annual Highway Report uses state-submitted highway data from 2016, the most recent year with complete figures currently available, along with traffic congestion and bridge data from 2017.

The write up specific to Missouri is here, and it is worth reading in its entirety. While some states spent in excess of $200,000 per mile, Missouri maintained a high rating while just spending under $24,000 per mile. This did not come at a cost to pavement condition, where Missouri ranked higher than some of the states that greatly outspent us.

It’s also worth noting that Missouri scored the worst on bridges (40 out of 50). Some good news is that the governor just announced a federal grant of $20 million to address exactly that.

My colleagues and I have written a great deal about the need to increase MODoT revenue and have suggested some possibilities. Advocates of restrained government are right to demand that government spend existing money wisely before seeking more revenue. This report from Reason suggests that MoDOT is being more responsible with taxpayer money than other states.

The post Some Good News Regarding Missouri’s Highways appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

THE SOLUTION: Right to work.

Right to work ends forced unionism and lets workers decide whether joining a union best serves their interests. This means that being a member of a union cannot be a requirement for employment, and gives employees the final decision about whether they want to give money to a union that may or may not have their best interests at heart.

In 2017, Missouri passed Right to Work, but in 2018, the state will hold a referendum on that law.

WHO ELSE DOES IT? Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

THE OPPORTUNITY: If the state’s Right to Work law is put into full effect, Missouri will join the majority of American states that already have right to work laws, finally placing Missouri employers and employees on a level playing field with other states.

KEY POINTS

• Missouri will be better able compete with neighboring right-to-work states in attracting businesses.
• Existing unions will be more responsive to the concerns of members, thanks to the credible threat of members leaving the organization.
• Employees will have greater control over their representation in negotiations with their employer.
• Employers will have greater flexibility in managing their businesses and making their operations more successful.
• Private employers are the focus, but similar laws in the public sector, like paycheck protection, should be pursued by policymakers as well.

SHOW-ME INSTITUTE RESOURCES

Policy Study: A Primer on Government Labor Relations in Missouri

Op-Ed: Rise of the Roosevelt Law: Is Reform in Government Unions Coming to Missouri?

For a printable version of this article, click on the link below. You can also view the entire 2018 Missouri Blueprint online.

The post 2018 Blueprint: Right to Work appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

The prevailing wage sets a floor for pay, but it can actually hurt the workers it’s intended to help by denying employment to people who can do the job at a more competitive price. To make matters worse, making projects more expensive also means that less taxpayer money will be available for other priorities.

THE SOLUTION: Let the market set wages.

Rather than dictate wages, the government should have policies that support a healthy jobs environment where higher wages for all sorts of construction projects—including public construction—develop on their own without the harmful effects of wage floors.

Policymakers must keep in mind that project delays can hurt their communities over time. It would be better to let the market set wage rates for these projects and to begin delivering those public services sooner rather than later.

WHO ELSE DOES IT? States with no prevailing wage law include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, and West Virginia.

THE OPPORTUNITY: Moving away from market-distorting policies like the prevailing wage will help the state promote job growth and spend taxpayer money efficiently.

KEY POINTS

• These reforms would promote job growth and make public works projects more affordable.
• Taxpayers get the most bang for their tax buck when their money is spent efficiently and effectively.

SHOW-ME INSTITUTE RESOURCES

Blog Post: Special Interests Inhibiting Joplin’s Recovery?

Blog Post: Playing Favorites on the Board of Aldermen?

Blog Post: The Race Is On: Wisconsin Pushes to End Project Labor Agreements and Prevailing Wage

For a printable version of this article, click on the link below. You can also view the entire 2018 Missouri Blueprint online.

The post 2018 Blueprint: Prevailing Wage appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

THE SOLUTION: Repeal the Certificate of Need law.

Eliminating CON requirements would allow Missourians to benefit from true marketplace competition in the health care arena.

WHO ELSE DOES IT? California, Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming have no CON law.

THE OPPORTUNITY: Missouri would join a growing list of states that have opened the door to real health care competition.

KEY POINTS

• CON laws separate patients who need care from doctors who want to provide it.
• More competition would create pressure to reduce health care prices.
• Missouri would be able to compete with nearby states, including Kansas, where smaller hospitals are opening up because they aren’t restricted by CON laws.
• CON reform is an opportunity to help communities threatened by the loss of existing hospitals.
• Ending CON would empower patients to make choices that benefit their families, rather than support the government-backed competitive advantages of hospitals.

SHOW-ME INSTITUTE RESOURCES

Essay: Demand Supply: Why Licensing Reform Matters to Improving American Health Care

Blog Post: Missouri’s Certificate of Need Law Needs to Go

For a printable version of this article, click on the link below. You can also view the entire 2018 Missouri Blueprint online.

The post 2018 Blueprint: Certificate of Need appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

That’s why news broken by Samantha Liss at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch should be very welcome to patients in Missouri and elsewhere, as it appears the market for at least some pharmacy services is about to grow:

Throughout the past year, and without much fanfare, Amazon.com Inc. has gained approval to become a wholesale distributor from a number of state pharmaceutical boards, according to a review of public records….

According to a review of records by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Amazon has received approval for wholesale pharmacy licenses in at least 12 states, including Nevada, Arizona, North Dakota, Louisiana, Alabama, New Jersey, Michigan, Connecticut, Idaho, New Hampshire, Oregon and Tennessee.

An application is currently pending in the state of Maine.

An Amazon spokesperson told the Post-Dispatch via email that the company does not comment on “rumors and speculation.”

It’s a little complicated, but one of the big questions surrounding the Post-Dispatch report is the ultimate aim of the Amazon filings—that is, whether Amazon wants to open up a pharmacy benefits management business only, or whether a soup to nuts model is also in the tech giant’s future. Does Amazon want to be Express Scripts? Does it want to be Walgreens? Or does it want to be both? I would welcome all of the above, actually, and I suspect millions of Amazon customers would feel likewise.

And despite the failure of our Federal representatives to actually do what they said and repeal Obamacare, there is still reason to be optimistic about the trajectory of care in this country. Along with the reform initiatives above, tech innovations like 3D printing of prosthetics, and much more, the potential entry of Amazon into the pharmaceutical space reiterates that the future of health care as some government product remains anything but assured. After all, people are markets, and markets are powerful things.

The post Is Amazon Getting into the Pharmacy Business? Let’s Hope So appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Over the years, we have marked the progress (or lack thereof) that Missouri has made by reporting new data on gross domestic product (GDP) released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). If you pick out a single year’s data, Missouri seems to do okay. From 2015 to 2016, for instance, real GDP in Missouri increased at a 1.15 percent rate, ranking 31st out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Washington recorded the fastest growth rate, at 3.7 percent. It was a bad year for states that rely on natural resources: Louisiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Alaska, and North Dakota all reported declines in real GDP from 2015 to 2016. So, it looks like the recent decline in oil and coal prices helped push Missouri up into the middle of the pack. For reference, in the United States as a whole, reported real GDP increased at a 1.54 percent rate in 2016—much faster than in Missouri.

But year-over-year data doesn’t reveal larger, more important economic trends; any given year can be dominated by business cycle fluctuations. Growth is focused on long-term trends. When you look at the entire 1997–2016 period, the picture is quite different from 2015. Little wiggles in the year-over-year data get smoothed out and show the economic fundamentals operating within a state. Over the full two-decade period, we see that Missouri’s growth has been paltry.

During this period, Missouri has grown at half the pace of the United States as a whole (1.024% compared to 2.05%). Out of all 50 states and the District of Columbia, Missouri ranks 48th in economic growth; we trailed Mississippi by 0.001%—we were almost 47th. For an idea of the impact of Missouri’s poor performance, imagine you and a friend had started at the same job in 1997, each making $50,000 a year. If your friend’s salary grew at the rate of the country as a whole, and yours grew at Missouri’s rate, the friend would have made about $72,800 in 2016 while you’d have made roughly $60,400!

In a recent essay, Joe Haslag and Michael Austin identified some policies that could help explain why Missouri took a nosedive after 1997. There was the corporate income tax rate hike in 1993. There was a shift of spending from education and infrastructure to social services. There was the sharp increase in the state’s tax credit programs. And, though more difficult to measure, there was the regulatory burden that seems only to have increased over time. (Do you remember a time when the state government eliminated a regulation?)

The bottom line is that state government needs to take a thoughtful approach to policy if it is to boost economic growth. Lower tax rates, for example, result in higher returns on capital and labor. The state should look for high returns on its own investments as well, just like a private citizen or business would. Common-sense adjustments to emphasize education and infrastructure over policies that transfer wealth from one group of citizens or businesses to another are needed unless Missouri’s policymakers are satisfied with 47th place.

The post Almost 47th appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

But that could change if a lawsuit challenging the North Dakota mandatory bar and filed in the Eighth Circuit — of which Missouri is a part — is successful.

A lawsuit filed by a Bismarck attorney will appear before the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals in St. Louis on Tuesday, April 4, claiming the North Dakota State Bar Association spent his dues to oppose a ballot measure he supported.

Arnold Fleck, 59, a self-employed attorney and member of the association, is being represented by the Goldwater Institute, an Arizona-based public policy think tank, in his lawsuit that argues the association contributed nearly $50,000 to a PAC opposing a shared parenting time and responsibility bill in 2014. An amended version of that bill — though shot down by voters twice in the past decade — just passed the Senate last week and before the state bar opposed the legislation, it took a neutral stance on the measure….

The case is addressing two additional issues: requiring the bar to adopt an “opt-in” for political spending, rather than an opt-out, and challenging mandatory bar membership as a violation of the First Amendment.

We have long talked about the Constitutional attractiveness of opt-in arrangements especially when political speech is involved, but the ability of mandatory bars to command dues payments creates substantive fungibility problems if only an “opt-in” reform is adopted. If the Show-Me Institute could force every educator in the state to pay us for the right to educate, that would be an enormous benefit to our day-to-day operations that would help make fundraising for other Show-Me projects much easier. In reality, SMI has no such power, and the supporters we have are supporters of their own accord rather than through compulsion. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

But that freedom to associate and support an organization, or not, should apply as much to Bar membership as it does to other policy spaces. I don’t have a problem with the idea of a Bar exam to ensure prospective lawyers are versed in local law and jurisprudence, but once that hurdle’s been cleared, further interaction with a state Bar should be optional. In states where the statewide bar isn’t mandatory, the state still polices the legal profession effectively; there’s no reason to believe North Dakota, Missouri and other mandatory bar states wouldn’t be able to, as well.

Plenty of local bars continue to exist not because lawyers have to be members, but because they want to be members. The state Bar should adopt the same model.

The post The Mandatory Bar Goes to Court appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

The chart below plots the average annual growth rate for each of the 50 states and for the United States as whole for the period 1997 through 2015. The good news is that Missouri’s average annual growth rate increased from 0.93 percent when computed over the 1997 through 2014 period to 1.02 percent when computed over the 1997 through 2015 period. Missouri reported a 1.29 percent growth rate in its real GDP between 2014 and 2015. No one really jumps for joy when growth rates are reported at 1.3 percent for a year; however, Missouri did manage to stagger its way one rung up the ladder, from 49th-fastest to 48th-fastest growing state economy over the period from 1997 through 2015.

Overall, the story for Missouri is little changed compared to a year ago. Since the late 1990s, Missouri’s economy has increased at half the rate of that of the United States as a whole. Eighteen years is not a terribly long time, and we all hope that Missouri’s future will be brighter. But the question remains: Why has the Missouri economy reported such slow growth over the past eighteen years?

The answer is not simple. Note that the ten fastest growing states are: North Dakota, Texas, South Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, California, Idaho, Arizona, and Oklahoma. There is no one clear feature shared by these ten states that can account for their economic success. Some of them do have natural resources and have benefitted from being able to dig a hole in the ground and extract things that are valuable to the rest of the world. But that is not the only explanation. For example, Arizona, Idaho, Oregon, and Utah (at least) do not fit the oil/natural gas story. Alternatively, the ten states with the lowest growth rates are Michigan, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, West Virginia, Maine, Ohio, Kentucky, Illinois, and New Jersey. No single attribute these states might have in common would account for their struggles, either.

Income tax rates cannot, alone, explain the differences in growth rates. The nine states with no earned income taxes (followed by rankings) are: Alaska (40), Florida (20), Nevada (16), New Hampshire (25), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (30), Texas (2), Washington (13), and Wyoming (11). The nine states with the highest marginal income tax rates (followed by rankings) are: California (7), Hawaii (37), Oregon (4), Minnesota (17), Iowa (23), New Jersey (42), Vermont (26), New York (29), and Maine (46). The mean rank for the nine states with no income taxes is 17.8 while the mean rank for the nine states with the highest income tax rates is 25.7.

Overall, the evidence does not prove, but does suggest, that income tax rates do matter for economic growth. Of course, a host of other factors matter as well. In order to assess the role of income tax rates on growth, the ideal test would involve holding everything else constant. In other words, you would want to examine a parallel version of New Jersey, for example, but one with a lower income tax rate. Holding everything else constant, economic theory suggests that New Jersey would grow faster.

The broader message is that lots of factors that influence a state’s economic growth rate. Each state is an experiment in which tax rates, school quality, and various government services are provided endogenously by state policymakers. The bundle of policies and regulations is too large and complicated for us to identify how each one matters. And on top of the political attributes, there are the things that lie underground, or on the ground itself (or the ocean front—or lack thereof), that people living in each state can consume. All policymakers can do is to try and manage the factors they can influence in a way that will help their state grow faster.

In case you are wondering, Kansas ranked as the 29th-fastest-growing state over this period. So, why can’t Missouri grow at least as fast as its neighbor? It’s a frustrating question, because we have a Gordian knot of regulations, laws, and policies that make it difficult to determine specific causes of our stagnation. Not only have policymakers failed to move Missouri in the right direction in the 21st century, but the complexity of our state’s problems prevents us from understanding why various initiatives have failed to produce their intended results. In my view, it seems like a good time for Missouri to review its entire spectrum of policies. For instance, we have not had a constitutional convention in this state since 1947. Maybe it is time for an institutional overhaul.

The post It Could Be Worse. Not Much Worse, but It Could Be Worse. appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Far from it. Of the 77 U.S. cities that KPMG ranked (which was not exhaustive of all major metros), Saint Louis ranked 45th and Kansas City ranked 46th. Among the cities cheaper than Saint Louis (and Kansas City) are regional competitors like Nashville, Omaha, Cincinnati, Memphis, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Oklahoma City, to name a few. Worse yet, Saint Louis was more expensive than all 18 Southeastern cities KPMG looked at, from Atlanta to New Orleans.

So where did the Post-Dispatch get a top ten ranking for Saint Louis? If we only consider regions with populations greater than two million (of which KPMG ranked 31), Saint Louis is the 9th cheapest. I will leave it to the readers of this blog to decide if Saint Louis should pat itself on back for being cheaper than New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, when it has higher costs for businesses than Nashville, Memphis, and just about every other regional competitor. But if we do decide to use population as criteria, it seems more justified to look at metros with populations similar to those of Saint Louis and Kansas City (between two and three million residents). When we do that, Saint Louis is 7th and Kansas City is 8th out of 14 such cities. That seems awfully middling.

That’s probably why, if one reads the study that the Post-Dispatch reports on, they’ll find that it does not claim that Saint Louis is among the most competitive cities in the country. KPMG didn’t even break down cities by population in the study, choosing instead to do so by region.  The Post-Dispatch story (while citing the study) is actually based on an ancillary KPMG press release, which lauds Cincinnati, and is careful to note context.

Titling an article “St. Louis among most cost-competitive cities for business, report says” when the report in question says no such thing is a questionable decision for a newspaper of record. But this is not just a problem with the headline. The article itself is equally misleading, and it was not a headline writer who placed this story front and center on the Post-Dispatch’s website less than a week before a vote on multiple tax issues (where the city’s business climate is an issue). 

The post Report: Saint Louis, Kansas City *Not* Among Most Cost-Friendly Cities for Business appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

This is interesting because Pi raised its wages voluntarily. It didn’t need the government to mandate a hike in pay, it chose to do it because it made sense from a business perspective. That is how it is supposed to be. In fact, that is what businesses do. They pay their workers a competitive rate commensurate with the value that these employees generate for the business. If they pay their employees too little, other businesses can offer these workers a higher rate and they will leave. Sommers mentioned his workers moving to another business because it offered a 25-cent increase in hourly wages (at 4:30). This is the market working.

Take what happened in North Dakota as an example. Because businesses were so desperate for workers, even fast food establishments had to significantly increase what they would pay their employees. For example, Taco John’s, a local area fast food restaurant, had to offer new employees $15 an hour salaries in order to get them to work there.

I want to help the poor do better, but there are betters options available than raising the minimum wage, like the Earned Income Tax Credit. This would ensure the benefits would go to the people who really need them, the working poor.

The post Supply, Demand, And The Minimum Wage appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Twenty North Dakotans have enrolled for health insurance through the new federal health exchange, according to figures from the three North Dakota companies offering coverage on the marketplace.

The online marketplace at healthcare.gov, where health insurance is sold, is a key aspect of the health insurance law signed by President Barack Obama commonly known as Obamacare. It has been plagued by traffic issues and widespread glitches since it went live about three weeks ago.

So far, there have been no reports of the enrollment numbers in Missouri, at least to my knowledge. I have reached out to the insurers who are in the Missouri exchange and hit a brick wall when it comes to actual numbers. HHS records suggest there are technically four insurance providers in the Missouri exchange: two affiliated with Blue Cross Blue Shield, and two affiliated with Coventry. (Because affiliates don’t really compete with one another, consumers are effectively left with only two insurer options in each county, in general.) Both Blue Cross affiliates — Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, and Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City — said that they will not be releasing their numbers. I have yet to receive a return call from either Coventry affiliate.

While we wait, the email I received from Anthem is below. It pretty well summarizes the position of Blue Cross.

Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield in Missouri’s parent company has just begun to receive confirmation of enrollment in the federal exchanges from CMS. Although it is too soon to provide Missouri enrollment details at this time, we have seen unprecedented call volumes and heavy web traffic for our exchange plans which is consistent with the experience reported by some state exchanges. We believe consumers will continue to be attracted to our trusted brand name and quality product offerings on the exchanges.

Deb Wiethop
Communications Director
Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield in Missouri

Naturally, “volume” and “web traffic” aren’t “enrollment,” so it looks like the actual enrollment figures will remain unknown. Why insurers are so unwilling to release the numbers is a subject of considerable speculation, but if Thursday’s movement toward a delay of the individual mandate is any indication, North Dakota’s enrollment experience may not be unique.

The post How Many Missourians Have Gotten Coverage Through The Exchange? Insurers Keep Mum appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

The top four states in CNBC’s survey are right in the middle of the growth corridor: 1. South Dakota, 2. Texas, 3. North Dakota, and 4. Nebraska. And make no mistake, not all of these states were always ranked so high. As far back as 2008, Nebraska’s CNBC ranking was tracking closely with Missouri’s. But then . . . it wasn’t. Nebraska moved into the top five nationwide; meanwhile, Missouri fell further behind. Kansas is always cited as a reason Missouri should be working hard to make itself more attractive to business, and that remains an obvious argument. But Missouri’s economic problems do not begin and end with Kansas, as the Nebraska example bears out. A broader picture of the region that includes only our immediate neighbors should also concern Missourians: Of the eight states that border Missouri, only two are ranked worse — Illinois and Kentucky, both on Missouri’s eastern border.

Now as we always note, your mileage will vary with these surveys, but as Hafer notes, when just about all of them are showing basically the same thing, it makes Missouri’s economic problems all the more clear.

Should we care about such surveys[?] When they converge, yes. CNBC’s ranking corroborates Forbes magazine’s 2013 ranking analysis that placed Missouri at 29. And a report from CNBC earlier this year showed that using data from the National Association of Manufacturers, Missouri did not even make the list of 20 states with the highest manufacturing job creation since the end of 2009. Notably, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky and Tennessee all made the list.

Will Missouri continue down a path of mediocrity? It will unless its leaders — both political and business — grapple with those issues over which they have some control to change in a manner that enticed businesses to start or relocate to our state. Education and tax policies seem like a good place to start the discussion.

Missouri has been headed in the wrong direction for far too long. It’s time to change course.

The post In Case There Were Any Doubts About The ‘Growth Corridor’ We’re In, Here’s Another Data Point appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Here are some key points the study found regarding Missouri:

• Perfect credit rating from both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s (ratings from ratings agencies are not always perfect, see: sub-prime mortgage crisis)
• Unemployment rate for 2011: 8.6 percent (national unemployment rate: 8.9 percent)
• State spending has been reduced in areas such as higher education for the past three years (fiscal years 2010-12) and Missouri residents refuse to change course.

This is not the first time the Show-Me Institute has analyzed a study that ranked Missouri in comparison to other states. These rankings depend on the weights the authors assign to the different measures they analyze. It is difficult to judge these rankings one way or another because they are partially subjective.

However, while Missouri might be in the middle of these rankings, on unfiltered measures such as real GDP (the measure of all the final goods and services that are produced within Missouri’s borders) it is among the worst economic performers in the country. In fact, based on more recent measures, Missouri is barely growing and is placed firmly in the bottom quintile of states for growth.

If it hopes to improve, Missouri should consider implementing Education Savings Accounts, eliminating the state’s corporate income tax or even eliminating the state’s income tax, and reforming occupational licensing.

The post The Best and Worst Run States . . . Where Missouri Ranks appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Why is this important? These states are all making moves to ensure their state’s economic competitiveness. Missouri already lags behind most of the country in economic growth. It will find itself falling further behind other states if it does not match or exceed the reforms being put forward in other states.

That is why it is important for Missouri to act quickly. Patrick and I have both written about the benefits of Missouri eliminating its corporate income tax and how it could be done in a way that would not negatively affect state revenues via the elimination of economic development tax credits. Missouri should eliminate its corporate income tax because it benefits all businesses, not just those who are politically favored. It also lessens government involvement in planning the economy due to the removal of tax credits.

Missouri does not have the least attractive environment for business . . . yet. However, its current inaction in the face of other states’ increasingly aggressive moves to make their states more competitive, especially Kansas, put Missouri at risk of being a permanent economic wasteland.

The post The Corporate Income Tax . . . Leaving Missouri Behind? appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

St. Louis resident Jim Roos, in front of the offending sign. Photo by the Institute for Justice.

Good news for Saint Louisans: That “End Eminent Domain Abuse” sign that you can see at the intersection of Hwys. 44 and 55 is here to stay. In a partial free speech victory, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear the appeal of a circuit court ruling that struck down portions of Saint Louis City’s sign code for violating the free speech clause of the First Amendment.

For those of us in the Midwest, this is great news. This means that government cannot regulate signs and murals based on their content. And, as a result, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the offending portion of the city’s zoning code may have to be rewritten.

This is also a meaningful victory for anti-eminent domain activists in Saint Louis. Jim Roos, the plaintiff (pictured above), has had more than his fair share of struggles with city government. Using eminent domain, the city took 24 different properties from Sanctuary in the Ordinary, or managed by Neighborhood Enterprises, a nonprofit that provides low-income housing that Roos founded.

In protest, Roos painted the large “End Eminent Domain Abuse” sign on another property threatened with eminent domain. As a result, the city hit Roos with a citation, and said that a permit was required. He applied for a permit, only to be denied.  We wrote about this issue in 2011, in a post aptly titled, “Using Your Property to Criticize Us for Taking Your Property? You’d Better Believe That’s Illegal.”

Fortunately, Roos  and the Institute for Justice, a nonprofit libertarian public interest law firm, continued to challenge the city’s zoning code, leading to the partial free speech victory today.

Those of us in the 8th Circuit (Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota) can take solace in knowing that our First Amendment rights are a little more secure. However, as Michael Bindas, the Institute for Justice attorney who represents Roos, pointed out, “Unfortunately, citizens in some other federal circuits do not enjoy the same protections that Jim’s case secured.”

Hopefully this case will help give victims of eminent domain abuse the courage to stand up and complain about it. Of course, the best victory for property owners would be for laws that allow eminent domain abuse to be repealed.

You can learn more about Jim Roos and the Institute for Justice here.

The post A Free Speech Win In Saint Louis appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Currently, a bipartisan group of more than 20 state attorneys general and elected officials are asking a judge in Florida to invalidate the federal health care reform law. Missourians should encourage their attorney general, Chris Koster, to join this multistate lawsuit, which resumes on Jan. 10. In my view, the precedent that Missourians set by approving Proposition C could be continued if Attorney General Chris Koster joined the lawsuit.

The following are some facts related to the lawsuit:

• Twenty attorneys general are challenging the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the health care reform law that Congress passed earlier this year, in a courtroom in Pensacola, Fla. They are arguing that the law is unconstitutional and would set a dangerous precedent.
• The case involves two arguments. The first is that the requirement for all Americans to purchase insurance is unconstitutional. The second is that expanding the eligibility requirements for Medicaid, the joint federal-state health insurance program for the poor, threatens state sovereignty and will burden state budgets.
• The states party to the suit are Florida, South Carolina, Nebraska, Texas, Utah, Louisiana, Alabama, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Washington, Idaho, South Dakota, Indiana, North Dakota, Mississippi, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Alaska. Additional states, such as Wisconsin, are considering joining.
• Americans are divided in their support for the health care legislation. Only 42 percent of Americans say they have a generally favorable view of the law, while 41 percent say the opposite, according to a poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation in December 2010.

Missouri voters were the first to oppose this attempt by the federal government to take control over health care. As Missourians, we live in a democracy. We should have a government that represents the demonstrated wishes of Missourians in this matter, thereby advancing liberty with responsibility by promoting market solutions for health care policy.

I will discuss the effort to encourage Attorney General Koster to join the Florida lawsuit on the Mike Ferguson show on the Eagle 93.9 FM tomorrow, Jan. 6 at 5:00 p.m in Columbia. I encourage our readers to tune in or listen online.

The post Attorney General Chris Koster Should Join the Multistate Health Care Lawsuit in Florida appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Every dime that the state takes away from an individual or business, through an income tax, is essentially taken out of the productive economy. Consequently, the capital that would have been spent investing in future goods is no longer available to the entity that would have otherwise used it. This, in effect, stifles growth.

Some might argue that public spending pumps that money back into the economy, but the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is a perfect example of that kind of Keynesian theory failing in practice. The bill massively increased government spending,but did little to stimulate growth in the economy; unemployment remains around 10 percent. In practice, government spending provides much less of a stimulative effect than comparable tax cuts.

It would be in Missouri’s best interest to lower — or even abolish — the state income tax, thus enabling Missourians to spend and invest more of their own money to grow our stagnant economy. As demonstrated in the table below, which displays average annual growth rates per state between 1997 and 2008, Missouri’s growth ranks seventh-worst in the nation. Abolishing or reducing the state income tax would be a step in the right direction toward positive change.

Source for GDP Numbers: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The post Growth by State appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

This made me wonder the the following: Are income taxes correlated with a higher mid-year budget gap as a percent of the FY2010 General Fund Budget? Do states that have no income tax have a lower incidence of mid-year budgetary shortfall?

In an attempt to answer this, I took Table 1 from the CPP report, and added the states that do not have a budget shortfall (Alaska, Delaware, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Wisconsin) and those that have a surplus (Montana and North Dakota). I sorted this table by the percentage of budget gap over the 2010 general fund budget. Next, I added the top marginal tax rates for personal and corporate income for each state. The green cells indicate states that assess zero income tax, and the red cells indicate states that have income tax rates of  9.0 percent or greater.

Projected Mid-Year FY2010 Budget Gaps as a Percentage of FY2010 Fiscal Budget by State

(Modified to Include Income Tax Rates and States With Zero Shortfall)

* Washington is reflected low in the list because the amount shown is for the two-year budget, ending in FY2011.

The states that have no income tax are disproportionately aggregated at the top of the list. This graph indicates that states without an income tax may be better at predicting their revenues in the future. I can think of a few reasons why this is, and I invite our blog readers to suggest additional reasons in the comments.

• Sales taxes are a less volatile source of revenue than income taxes.
• Income taxes are closely tied to the job market, and sales taxes are not. When a person loses her job, she then has zero earned income, and therefore generates zero income tax revenue for the state. During this period of unemployment, however, she continues to make purchases and pay sales taxes (either by using personal financial reserves or unemployment compensation).
• Sales taxes are more effective than income taxes in addressing budget shortfalls more immediately, because they are collected at the point of transaction. Income taxes, in contrast, are collected only once per year. States do not have to wait until residents file their income taxes in order to collect revenue.

Notice that Missouri is ranked 37. This means that 36 other states were able to forecast their budgets better than Missouri. Perhaps if Missouri repealed its income tax in favor of a broad-based sales tax, it could predict its revenues better, and it wouldn’t face such a shortfall in the future.

The post Looking at Mid-Year Budgetary Shortfall and Income Tax Rates appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

I know this is not a Missouri issue yet, but I would really love to see someone who has a great record of being in touch with the people and populist issues take it up here in Missouri. Any suggestions?

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