Once again, Missouri has been outdone by a neighbor. On the very important issue of early literacy, we should look closely at the move Oklahoma just made. With the signing of Senate Bill 1778, Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt has essentially ended the era of social promotion for children who can’t read. Oklahoma’s “Strong Readers Act” provides a roadmap that Missouri should follow.

One of the more controversial aspects of the law relates to third-grade retention. Starting in the 2027–28 school year, students who score below the basic level on the Oklahoma state test (the equivalent of Missouri’s MAP test) and who cannot pass a secondary literacy assessment may be required to repeat the grade. While retention is an unpopular strategy, the bill balances this with a multi-tiered system of support. This means schools will use statewide screenings to identify issues as early as kindergarten, triggering immediate interventions such as small-group tutoring and summer academies. Missouri should adopt a similar mandate. By making retention a real possibility, the law forces the system to pivot toward early intervention.

Unfortunately, Missouri’s attempts at literacy reform have stagnated this legislative session. Despite broad recognition that our reading scores are headed in the wrong direction, Missouri lawmakers are stuck in debates about which test to use, the negative effects of retention, and local control. There are still a few weeks left for them to resolve their differences. They owe it to our students to stop passing them through a failing system and start ensuring that every student is equipped with the reading skills they need to succeed.

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In Jefferson City, there have been questions about the balance between academic promotion and social promotion in K–12 schools. In particular, there have been concerns about the effects a third-grade retention policy could have on social settings in schools (such as having 16-year-olds attending middle school).

It is an understandable worry. The movie Billy Madison was made about this very idea. However, in the context of Missouri’s pending retention legislation, House Bill 2872 and Senate Bill 1442, there should not be concern about Adam Sandler remaining in classrooms for years and years.

Under both these bills, a third-grade student can be promoted to fourth grade if they pass the objective reading assessment at the end of third grade or qualify for a good-cause exemption. Amongst those exemptions is one for students who “have already been retained at least once in any of grades kindergarten through grade three.”

This exemption is important to note because it prevents a student from being retained multiple times in early grades. In the existing system, there are already students who have been retained in grades K–3. The potential change would simply be in the number of students who repeat a grade.

House Bill 2872 and Senate Bill 1442 would not create new social problems in schools. Instead, these bills would ensure that more students get the best chance to become confident, capable readers, while maintaining the balance between academic promotion and social promotion that already exists in Missouri’s education system.

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Momentum for early literacy reform continues in Jefferson City, as House Bill (HB) 2872 recently passed out of committee.

While this version removed several provisions from the original bill, it retains the core components necessary to meaningfully improve early reading outcomes. As HB 2872 continues to move through the legislative process, it is critical to preserve two elements.

#1. A Clear, Firm, and Objective Third-Grade Retention Policy

Under HB 2872, a student who scores at the lowest level on a state-approved Missouri reading screener will be retained unless the student completes a summer reading program and scores above the lowest level on a retest opportunity, or qualifies for a good-cause exemption. Good-cause exemptions apply only to students with limited English proficiency, disabilities, or students who have already been retained.

Having a firm third-grade retention policy is important. An analysis of multiple states’ literacy policies found no consistent evidence that reading scores increase in states without a retention component. Critically, the value of the retention component is not just for students who are retained—it is also for all the students who are not retained because their reading scores improve. In most states with retention policies, the retention rate ends up being low; it is the threat of retention, more than retention itself, that spurs widespread literacy gains.

A number of states—Mississippi, Louisiana, Indiana, Florida, and Tennessee—use a rule-based retention policy. These states have seen significant gains in reading, and all have higher test scores than Missouri.

Without a rule-based policy, teachers and parents talk themselves into promotions that are ultimately to the detriment of children. It feels mean to hold a child back. But it is no kindness to promote a child from the third to fourth grade if the child cannot read. It is not setting the child up for success.

HB 2872 requires that parents be notified if their child is identified as having a reading deficiency at any time during grades 1–3. This level of transparency can help parents be part of the solution for their children.

Retention can be a difficult experience, but research shows it is much easier on young children; it is primarily students in later grades who are negatively impacted when retained. Younger students who are retained under these types of policies benefit tremendously in terms of on-grade academic achievement, even years after retention.

#2. Accountability for Teacher Preparation Programs

It is also critical to align the training in teacher-preparation programs with evidence-based reading instruction. In 2023, the National Council on Teacher Quality evaluated teacher-preparation programs nationwide and awarded nearly half of Missouri’s participating institutions with an “F” for their coverage of scientifically based reading instruction.

HB 2872 allows the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) to bring teacher preparation programs into alignment with the science of reading for the benefit of our students. Specifically, it allows DESE to review teacher preparation programs for compliance with evidence-based reading instruction and prohibit noncompliant programs from certifying new teachers.

The new version of HB 2872 that emerged from committee has changed in the following ways. The new bill:

• Has no explicit ban of the use of three-cueing (a reading method relying more on cues, guessing, and memorization rather than systematic phonics) in K-12 classrooms.
• Eliminates the proposed $500 incentive to districts for students who remediate a substantial reading deficiency.
• Redefines the Missouri Reading Screener to include multiple DESE-approved assessments rather than a single (new) statewide test.

These changes weaken the bill, but are secondary to the structural pillars of reform: an objective, assessment-based retention rule and stronger accountability for teacher preparation programs. As long as these pillars are in place (especially retention), HB 2872 represents meaningful progress.

We encourage our Missouri lawmakers to continue to take our literacy crisis seriously and to enact policies that help more Missouri students become confident, capable readers.

The post Early Literacy Reform Advances in the House appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Susan Pendergrass is joined by Cory Koedel, director of education policy at the Show-Me Institute, and Avery Frank, policy analyst at the Show-Me Institute, to discuss Missouri’s early literacy crisis. They walk through the need for a universal reading screener, the evidence behind third grade retention, why banning three cueing matters, how teacher preparation programs must change to align with the science of reading, what successful states like Mississippi have done, what Missouri’s current laws get wrong, and more.

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Timestamps

00:00 The Literacy Crisis in Missouri
04:42 Strategies for Improvement
09:37 The Role of Testing and Accountability
14:21 Retention Policies and Their Impact
19:08 Legislative Solutions and Future Prospects

Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

The post Why Missouri Needs Early Literacy Reform with Cory Koedel and Avery Frank appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

David Stokes, Elias Tsapelas, and Avery Frank join Zach Lawhorn to discuss: the cancellation of the St. Louis MetroLink Green Line and what bus rapid transit could mean for the city, major changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) under the One Big Beautiful Bill, and Missouri’s worsening reading crisis and how other states have improved with reforms like third grade retention.

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Timestamps

00:00 Cancellation of the Green Line Project
08:12 Changes to the SNAP Program
17:18 Reading Retention and Educational Reforms
26:10 Property Tax Reassessments in Platte County

Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

The post MetroLink Line Canceled, SNAP Reform, and Missouri’s Reading Crisis | Roundtable appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Our study shows that retained students improved tremendously in terms of their on-grade academic performance. They did not suddenly become top performers in their new third-grade classrooms, but they moved meaningfully toward the middle of the performance distribution. The positive effect of third-grade retention on test scores persisted through at least seventh grade, which was as far as we could track with our data. We also found no evidence of harmful side effects. In particular, retained students were no more likely to be subject to school discipline and had no changes in attendance after their retention.

How do we know the retention itself is responsible for the improvement in test scores, and not something else? We used what researchers call a “regression discontinuity design” to estimate the retention effect. This approach compares students whose test scores fall just above the cutoff for promotion with those just below. When we compare students very close to the cutoff, the only difference between the ones on different sides is whether they were held back—in all other respects, they are the same, at least on average. This design mimics random assignment, and gives us strong confidence that the improvements we observe were caused by retention.

Our findings in Indiana corroborate similar findings in several other cities and states showing that early-grade retention greatly improves academic outcomes without negative behavioral consequences. Retention in later grades is more problematic. This has led researchers to theorize that the negative stigma and weakened sense of belonging associated with retention are problems that affect older students, but not younger ones.

It is increasingly well understood that grade retention for struggling readers is an important part of a robust early literacy policy (e.g., see here). If students can’t read by the end of the third grade, it is in their best interest to be held back while they catch up. Missouri currently has a weak and ineffectual retention policy that as far as I can tell, is not in active or meaningful use. We should update our state retention policy to make it objective and rigorous, and stop socially promoting children who can’t read.

The post Students Who Can’t Read Benefit from Third-Grade Retention appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

The premise is simple: if you can effectively teach students to read in their early years, then they will be better at reading to learn for the rest of their years.

While there is of course need to continue reforming education practices at all grade-levels, the research literature and recent real-world examples show the positive outcomes that can result from focusing on helping students learn to read effectively at a young age.

This report explores the beneficial effects of a focus on early literacy. Drawing on the findings of a 2023 study by John Westall & Amy Cummings at Michigan State University, it provides a road map for Missouri: establishing a mandatory, academic-based third-grade retention policy, fully eliminating the three-cueing method for teaching word reading, and aligning teacher preparation programs with the science of reading.

Click here to read the full policy brief.

The post Third-Grade Retention and Early Literacy Policies appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

The premise is simple: if you can effectively teach students to read in their early years, then they will be better at reading to learn for the rest of their years.

While there is of course need to continue reforming education practices at all grade-levels, the research literature and recent real-world examples show the positive outcomes that can result from focusing on helping students learn to read effectively at a young age.

This report explores the beneficial effects of a focus on early literacy. Drawing on the findings of a 2023 study by John Westall & Amy Cummings at Michigan State University, it provides a road map for Missouri: establishing a mandatory, academic-based third-grade retention policy, fully eliminating the three-cueing method for teaching word reading, and aligning teacher preparation programs with the science of reading.

Click here to read the full policy brief.

The post Third-Grade Retention and Early Literacy Policies appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Dr. Cory Koedel, the Show-Me Institute’s new director of education policy, joins Susan Pendergrass to discuss the biggest challenges facing Missouri’s public education system. They cover declining student outcomes, the role of accountability and testing, and the promise of school choice. Koedel shares insights from his research on school funding models—highlighting Tennessee’s student-centered formula—and breaks down what Missouri can learn from states that are improving early literacy. They also examine controversial policies like early grade retention and open enrollment, and Koedel outlines his priorities for education research in Missouri.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction to Education Policy Challenges in Missouri
03:10 The Role of School Choice in Improving Outcomes
05:48 Funding Formulas and Their Implications
08:52 Early Literacy and Reading Instruction
12:05 Retention Policies and Their Effectiveness
15:04 Open Enrollment and Its Impact on Rural Schools
17:58 Future Directions for Education Policy in Missouri

Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

The post A New Voice for Accountability, and School Choice in Missouri with Cory Koedel appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Pushing Back Against Policies that Dilute Standards

Currently, Missouri students are categorized into one of four performance levels based on their state standardized test scores. From lowest to highest, these are: below basic, basic, proficient, and advanced.

HB 607 proposes the addition of a fifth performance category, called “grade level,” which would be above basic but below proficient.

• Proficient: Demonstrates mastery over all appropriate grade-level standards
• Grade level: Demonstrates mastery over appropriate grade-level subject matter
• Basic: Demonstrates partial mastery of essential knowledge and skills for the grade level

This definition of “grade-level” implies that it should not be expected for Missouri students to have mastery over all appropriate grade-level standards.

Rather than diluting standards, Missouri should implement policies that make meaningful use of state assessments. One such example is a third-grade retention policy. The transition from third to fourth grade is pivotal—students shift from learning to read to reading to learn. To combat the well-documented fourth-grade reading slump, states such as South Carolina and Mississippi adopted mandatory retention policies paired with targeted phonics-based interventions. The result has been very positive.

Open Enrollment—Better Choice, Better Accountability

Currently, where you can attend school is largely determined by where you live. This prevents many families from changing schools. Establishing a cross-district, universal open enrollment program would allow more families to vote with their feet. Markets excel at revealing best practices, and districts with best practices will likely attract more students and pressure other districts to change.

There is some potential to align open enrollment with Missouri’s accreditation process. In December 2024, it was announced that for the 10th year in a row, the state’s accountability system would not be used for district accreditation. Perhaps there is fear of a trigger in the policy that would allow students to transfer out of unaccredited school districts, especially because the unaccredited districts must pay the tuition for the transfers to receiving districts. If universal open enrollment were adopted, lawmakers could revisit the tuition rule for transfer students out of those districts and implement a meaningful accreditation system.

These strategies offer ways to maintain high standards for our schools and children. Better accountability systems in education are the key to learning which strategies are working and which are not. Encouraging transparency and openness will generate more competition and innovation in our schools, and should ultimately strengthen our education system.

The post Accountability in Missouri’s Public Schools appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

There are two key factors to consider when answering this question: academic promotion and social promotion.

• Academic promotion is straightforward—as students gain an understanding of the material, they advance to the next level and build on what they learned in the grade before.
• Social promotion is based on age and allows students to stay with their friends and peers throughout their school experience.

Social promotion largely wins the day in schools. On the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 40 percent of Missouri 4th graders scored below basic on the 4^th-grade reading assessment in 2022. Additionally, 15.1 percent of the same 4th graders scored below basic on the Missouri Assessment Program (MAP).

However, recently, some states have put more emphasis on academic promotion.

Some States Are Focusing More on Academic Promotion

In states such as Mississippi, Tennessee, and Florida, 3rd grade students can be prevented from advancing to 4th grade if they do not meet reading requirements. This is typically referred to as a “third-grade retention policy.”

All three states have seen significant gains in reading achievement. Mississippi’s commitment to mandatory phonics instruction and 3rd-grade retention has contributed to such a large boost in reading scores, it has been referred by many as the “Mississippi Miracle.”

On the NAEP, Mississippi’s scores increased by almost 10 percentage points between 2013 and 2022. Missouri’s decreased by 6 percentage points over that time period.

Mississippi also implemented targeted reading instruction based on evidence-based reading. It is hard to disconnect 3rd-grade retention from intentional instruction.

Considerations for Weighing a 3rd-Grade Retention Policy

After the pandemic, reading scores in Missouri not only initially nosedived, but they sadly continued to decrease and remained low. Missouri may need to consider new strategies to help our students in need.

However, social promotion is not unimportant. For students who are trying hard and get left behind, this can be a very tough social situation. Having friends go on to the next grade means the student left behind has less interaction with friends—different classes, different sports teams, different lunch schedules, and more.

Additionally, kids being older than their peers can create awkward social situations and increase bullying.

Mississippi’s policy attempts to balance different priorities when considering retention. It has the :

• Limited English proficient students who had less than 2 years of instruction in an English Language Learner program.
• Students with disabilities whose Individualized Education Program (IEP) indicates that participation in statewide assessment programs is not appropriate.
• Students with disabilities who demonstrate a reading deficiency but whose IEP has provided them with intensive reading remediation for more than two years.
• Students with disabilities who demonstrate a reading deficiency but were previously retained in a K-3 grade.
• Students who meet an acceptable level of reading proficiency on an alternative standardized assessment approved by the Mississippi State Board of Education.
• Students who demonstrate a reading deficiency despite having received two or more years of intensive reading intervention and have been retained in a K-3 grade for two years without meeting exceptional education criteria.

Third-grade retention has a demonstrated track record of success in other states, and it should be given consideration as Missouri students continue to struggle in reading.

The post Should Missouri Consider a 3rd-Grade Retention Policy? appeared first on Show-Me Institute.

Mississippi (which typically holds back between 4–10 percent of third graders) is viewed as a successful model for this type of retention policy. Started in 2013, the Mississippi policy requires a sufficient score on the state English/language arts assessment or on either of the two retest opportunities (with certain exceptions made for English-language learning students and students with disabilities). This strategy is rooted in the idea that students need to receive a firm foundation in reading before advancing to higher grades. Mississippi has seen its efforts pay off—between 2013 and 2019, the state’s 4th-grade reading scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) rose by 10 points, while the national average decreased by 1. Mississippi moved from rank 49th to 29th in 4th-grade reading over this time period.

There are also drawbacks to this policy. For students who are trying hard and get left behind, this can be a very tough social situation. Having friends go on to the next grade means the student left behind has less interaction with friends—different classes, different sports teams, different lunch schedules, and more. This can be demoralizing for a student. In Mississippi, students can be held back for up to two years before automatically advancing to the next grade. Kids being potentially two years older than their peers can create awkward social situations and increase bullying. You could be driving a car in 8th grade, be an 18-year-old sophomore, or be a 20-year-old senior. One concern is that being 18 as a junior or sophomore may increase drop-out rates. However, Mississippi actually reached an all-time high in its high school graduation rate in 2022—rising from 74.5 percent in 2014 to 88.9 percent.

Can families bear these unconventional social situations in order for their children to succeed in school? Mississippi has seen drastic improvement in both scores and graduation rates since implementing its reading policy. Missouri’s 3rd-grade scores—and frankly all of our state’s test scores— indicate drastic action is needed. Implementing a reading policy such as Mississippi’s may be a good place to start.

The post Should More Missouri Students Be Held Back? appeared first on Show-Me Institute.