I had a professor in college who was very good at getting his points across by waving his hands in the air, creating imaginary graphs. I found that, for me, it was very helpful to study current happenings by keeping the big underlying trends in my mind (or my fingertips).
Recently, the Reason Foundation released a report on K-12 resources and outcomes. Not to minimize the comprehensiveness of this report, but it aligns nicely with what my fingers would describe about public education in Missouri over the last fifteen years. So let’s take a look at data from the U.S. Department of Education and the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) and see where we are.
Public school enrollment in Missouri is down.
Why? Nationally, birth rates have been going down since the Great Recession. In addition, Missouri has done little to make itself attractive to families with school-aged children. In several of our neighboring states families can pick any public or private school for their children. Meanwhile, more than 95% of Missouri families can still only choose between their assigned public school and virtual learning.
The number of teachers is up.
Why? This one is hard to figure out. There is little evidence that reducing classroom size improves achievement, but it continues to be a popular approach for Missouri districts.
Spending on public education is up.
Why? Spending on public education rarely goes down. Much of education spending is driven by the graph above and teacher contracts can be hard to terminate. In fact, due in part to the fact that district budgets are largely fixed, the DESE 2024 budget requests that the state raise the amount appropriated per student because enrollment is down.
Achievement has been declining.
Why? My speculation is that Missouri districts face no competition and are not held accountable. States like Florida with robust choice programs and letter grades for schools and districts have leapfrogged over Missouri in national rankings. Even as test scores decline, nearly every district in the state (514 out of 520) is considered “fully accredited” by DESE and the state Board of Education.
So, to recap—enrollment down, teachers up, spending way up, and achievement slowly tanking. Next year, Missouri will have a new governor and a new commissioner of education. Let’s keep this context in mind as we hold them accountable for changing the outcomes.
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